Trump re-election prospects

[mileslunn]

I give him about a 30% chance of being re-elected.  While many will say he has been an unmitigated disaster, he has a strong motivated base who are staying with him and should show up.  Also it's the electoral college not popular vote that matters and the Democrats seem to be running up the margins in the large liberal coastal states.  That being said I think the Democrats will avoid making the mistake of thinking many of the Rust Belt states are in the bag and will go after them a lot harder.  Also a lot depends too on whom they choose as they need someone who can excite their base as the Democrat base is slightly larger than the GOP one, but are less likely to show up.