CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads all GOP candidates by double digits

[Matty]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

The same poll you are using shows that Hillary has a 43% favorable rating and a 54% unfavorable rating among all whites. That's 11 points underwater. That works for someone like Obama who can pull a very large minority turnout, but it's not good news in HRC's case.

As others have mentioned, this poll's respondent pool is basically people who answered their phones. It's not Registered Voters, much less Likely Voters.

Did you notice this little gem in the poll results:

SIX percent of respondents never heard of Joe Biden, you know, the guy who is in his 7th year as Vice President of the United States? That's sixty (60) Americans in this poll who have never heard of their Vice President. Now, if someone wants to say many of those were just yanking the pollster's chain, go with that - but in doing so, it discredits all of their other answers to the questions as well.

"Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 48% described themselves as Independents or members of another party."


In 2014, according to Gallup, 31% identified themselves as Democrats, 25% identified themselves as Republicans and 42% identified themselves as Independents. So all in all, this CNN poll very closely monitors those numbers. But there's a disparity in the poll that admittedly does not affect the Hillary Vs 'Whoever" results that is the subject of your OP, but nevertheless is noteworthy because it poisons the well of the Democratic and Republican nominee portion of the poll.

Note (for the Democratic choice for nominee portion):

"BASED ON 278 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE
THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 188 WHO
DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 466 DEMOCRATS"

So the results on the Democratic side reflect 60% Dems and 40% "Dem-leaning" Independents.

Now look at the Republican nominee section:

"BASED ON 229 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 221 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 450 REPUBLICANS"

The results on the Republican nomination side thus represent 51% Republicans and 49% Independents ---- +2 party identifiers vs. +20 party identifiers for the Dems. A huge disparity. It's significance? 91% of the Independents expressed a "lean" toward one party or the other. (188+221=409--.42x1009=424--409d.424=.91). That in itself is highly suspect, but be that as it may. What is the takeaway from these numbers?

This.

52% of Independents in the poll leaned Republican while only 44% leaned Democrat. If this poll has credibility, and the Gallup Independent percentage of 42% is split accordingly, the 6 point Dem advantage in self-identification in Gallup becomes just 2.5 points, a far more viable hill to climb for the GOP in 2016.

But then again, after all such analysis is completed, analyzed and digested - the end result is that it's just another poll taken ten and a half months before the Iowa caucuses.