So basically he's fudging his model into the direction of what he expects to happen. Key 2 is actually true by his standard (Sanders won over a third of delegates) but he's finding excuses otherwise because he doesn't think Trump can win.
Yeah, I remember it being pointed out on here a few months ago that a Trump win was likely based on his model. Thing is that several of the 'keys' are vague.
If you try to assign the unclear keys with as little bias as possible, this is what you get.
Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Based on what Litchman's standard was when he wrote his book, which is really what he should be using, FALSE
Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Based on current polling, we have to say FALSE (Johnson)
Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
Since BLM is (mostly) non-violent, we'll say TRUE here.
Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
It's a good point that Cuba/Iran are viewed through partisan lenses. The same applies to Climate Change. Litchman has been reluctant to declare any of these a clear success throughout the campaign. Going with FALSE.
Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
Given what I did with the rest of the keys, this one doesn't matter, so I'll just be generous to Clinton and say TRUE
7 FALSE
6 TRUE
Trump is our next president, with one more key than he needed.