Canadian by-elections, 2014

[adma]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Keep in mind that the vast bulk of those polling stations are apartment/condo "400s".

One thing I'd *really* be curious about, given the parties' and candidates' relative positioning, is the Toronto Island result--somehow, I can't see Islanders bloc-voting against Adam Vaughan the way they would against "regular" Liberal candidates.  Not that he'd win Toronto Island in the end; but there's a good chance of there being the shallowest "differential" from the riding mean in ages there...

[adma]

Do you think there's a chance that the islands weren't the NDP's best poll? I wouldn't take that bet.

I wouldn't, either.  But that's not the same as saying there might be a shallower differential than normal.

[adma]

I'm also wondering if local representation plays a part in Scar-Agincourt's case, i.e. the more "Chinese" polls benefit from Tory Mike Del Grande's municipal machine, while Liberal Norm Kelly dominates the SW...

[adma]

With Etobicoke-Lakeshore, it seems like that was a time when the PCs were running quite strong in the province, ahead of the Liberals.

I don't think it was that per se--the PCs around then were a pretty lukewarm kind of "quite strong"--so much as Doug Holyday being a "Adam Vaughan game-changer" kind of candidate; without him, the Tories would have done about as well as Holyday did vs Milczyn in the *general* election.

[adma]

And keep in mind that the Alberta New Democrats are now led by Rachel Notley--daughter of party icon Grant Notley.  And a lot are banking on that fact.  (Shades of Justin Trudeau, but with more substance.)

[adma]

W/the Alta Liberals, depends on which way the wind is blowing.  In fact, back when they were most in contention for power (i.e. the early 90s under Decore), they were aggressively bidding for the PC "right vote".

[adma]

Don't forget the Ontario Liberals were to the right of the Tories in the 1970s and early 80s.

And Manitoba Liberals up through the 60s, at least.

[adma]

Of course a "Christine Elliott 2014" type result will not bode well for the Tories. 

More like: to be reduced to pre-Orange-Crush 15%-or-less "normal" third-place levels will not bode well for the NDP, esp. given how the ONDP did about ten points better (albeit still third)vs Elliott in '14...

[adma]

If that's the case, it'd still make more sense to gun for the 23% that Ryan Kelly got provincially than to settle for 15%...

[adma]

There's a sense in which Charest did this, though of course the situation with Quebec parties is different.

And likewise, going the other direction, Mulcair.