Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Why did the synagogues pop up on Bathurst St in particular?

[lilTommy]

Why did the synagogues pop up on Bathurst St in particular?

this help: via Wiki
"From the early part of the twentieth century, many Jews lived around Bathurst Street south of Bloor Street east to Spadina Avenue (and particularly Kensington Market) and west to past Christie Pits. After World War II, as the community became more middle class, it moved north along Bathurst Street, with wealthier members of the community moving to Forest Hill. The poorer members moved to the area around Bathurst and St. Clair Avenue or Bathurst and Eglinton Avenue.[7]
The community continued to move north along Bathurst and today, much of the Jewish community resides along the street from north of St. Clair Avenue and, in higher concentrations just south of Lawrence Avenue to beyond the city limits at Steeles Avenue, and extending further until about Elgin Mills Road in Richmond Hill.[8] Many synagogues are located on Bathurst, as well as many other Jewish community institutions:
The northern stretch of Bathurst, north of Sheppard Avenue West, has become one of the centres of the Russian community in Toronto. Many Russian Jewish immigrants started to settle in the apartment buildings there (many are located around the Bathurst/Sheppard intersection, as well as a long stretch of Bathurst between Finch Avenue West and Steeles Avenue West),[9] starting from early 1970s in order to get easier access to services provided by the Jewish Immigrant Aid Society. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, significant numbers of Russian immigrants to Canada settled there. Many are affiliated with the Jewish Russian Community Centre.[10] The electoral district of York Centre, which includes Bathurst from Wilson Ave. West to Steeles Ave. West, has the largest number of Russo-Canadian voters in Canada. Numerous Russian delicatessens, restaurants, and book and clothing stores have earned the neighbourhood the unofficial moniker Little Moscow.[11]"

[RogueBeaver]

Brian Jean has resigned as MP for Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Said he wants to move on, but I'm not a fan of all these early quitters both federally and provincially.

[DC Al Fine]

Brian Jean has resigned as MP for Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Said he wants to move on, but I'm not a fan of all these early quitters both federally and provincially.

I'd be a bit more sympathetic if it was a minority government or if he got sick. But it's a majority government. It's not difficult to announce your retirement and start looking for jobs a year out from a set election date.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, we're going to have a pretty boring set of by-elections soon. A ridiculously safe Tory seat and... ANOTHER ridiculously safe Tory seat

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario provincials will be interesting. Federally, I'd love to see a vacancy (or more) in rural Quebec.

[adma]

Also, we're going to have a pretty boring set of by-elections soon. A ridiculously safe Tory seat and... ANOTHER ridiculously safe Tory seat

Though if rural/hinterland Alberta weren't rural/hinterland Alberta a la 2013, Brian Jean's seat could *ideally* be interesting, if Fort MacMurray ever had the guts to break Albertan habit...

[DL]

There is also about a 99.9% chance of a federal Byelection in Trinity-Spadina when Olivia Chow resigns to run for mayor of Toronto. It's worth noting that in just about every election since the NDP was founded in 1961 the NDP vote% in Trinity-Spadina is always 15 to 25 percent above the NDP vote share in Toronto Centre Formerly Rosedale). Since the NDP took 36% in the Toronto Centre Byelection if the pattern holds the NDP will get 50-60% when the Byelection in T-S happens

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne will call Thornhill and Niagara Falls for Feb. 13 today.

[RogueBeaver]

The Ontario writs have been dropped. In Niagara the Tories are running their ex-MPP, ditto for Grits in Thornhill.

[Krago]

Niagara Falls





Thornhill

[Krago]

The Ontario writs have been dropped. In Niagara the Tories are running their ex-MPP, ditto for Grits in Thornhill.

Actually, the Liberal candidate in Thornhill, Sandra Yeung Racco, is the wife of the former Liberal MPP Mario Racco.

[lilTommy]

The Ontario writs have been dropped. In Niagara the Tories are running their ex-MPP, ditto for Grits in Thornhill.

Actually, the Liberal candidate in Thornhill, Sandra Yeung Racco, is the wife of the former Liberal MPP Mario Racco.

... I already mentioned all that on page1 guys

[lilTommy]

Niagara Falls





Thornhill

The NDPs strength down in Fort Erie (the south end of the riding) makes sense as the candidate back in 2011 was the former mayor of the city. It will be interesting to see if those votes stay with the NDP; also how NF city will be split seeing that the Liberals and NDP are running (if Gates wins the NDP nod) city Councillors. The Tories should sweep/win big in the North in Niagara-on-the-lake. Look for a North South divide. The OLP did well in 11 to keep their urban/rural seats (Peterborough, NF, Brant) but this will be a test of that, a lot can be chalked to candidate, no Craitor will be interesting.

[adma]

The NDPs strength down in Fort Erie (the south end of the riding) makes sense as the candidate back in 2011 was the former mayor of the city. It will be interesting to see if those votes stay with the NDP; also how NF city will be split seeing that the Liberals and NDP are running (if Gates wins the NDP nod) city Councillors. The Tories should sweep/win big in the North in Niagara-on-the-lake. Look for a North South divide. The OLP did well in 11 to keep their urban/rural seats (Peterborough, NF, Brant) but this will be a test of that, a lot can be chalked to candidate, no Craitor will be interesting.

Not *that* sure about a Tory NOTH sweep--actually, in 2011, the Tories and Libs ran about even there, because the former's rural strength was matched by the latter's strength in NOTH (and Queenston) proper.  There's a certain "Pink Tory" affluent/educated gentility in those historic centres for whom Hudak's redneck-pandering struck a sour note; and assuming the Liberals are still in the picture here, one can definitely see Premier Wynne having a "pull" with said demo.  But yes; NOTH is the weakest spot for the NDP--in fact, when it comes to N/S divides, it probably has less to do with Tory strength than with NDP un-strength; or perhaps, btw/ "PC" Tories and "Reform/Alliance" Tories, the former which were more amenable to parking their vote w/the McGuinty Liberals.  Even in 2007, Craitor fared worse vs Maves in Fort Erie than in NOTL--and in 2011, w/'the Redekop factor, the Grits were reduced to a solid 20% third in Fort Erie, while getting twice (!) that share in NOTL.

[Hatman 🍁]

Niagara Falls results by municipality:

Niagara-on-the-Lake
PC: 43.7%
Liberal: 41.6%
NDP: 12.2%
Grn: 1.7%
Oth: 0.8%

Niagara Falls
Lib: 41.3%
PC: 30.2%
NDP: 25.0%
Grn: 1.7%
Oth: 1.8%

Fort Erie
PC: 41.0%
NDP: 38.3%
Lib: 18.8%
Grn: 1.3%
Oth: 0.6%

In the Fort Erie community, (not the Town, but the smaller community within the town), the Tory candidate edged the NDP by 36 votes. The NDP did win the community of Crystal Beach, 323 votes to 214.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has some polls out: Tories lead 44-36 in Thornhill, 32-28-28 in Niagara. If past experience is any indicator, Tories in Thornhill and Dippers in Niagara? Though the latter would be embarrassing since it's Hudak's backyard.

[Hatman 🍁]

28% with no candidate yet? Sweet!

[adma]

Well, it would (I guess) seem from the poll that Wayne Gates was presented as the NDP candidate.  But still, it's interesting that it's this high, this early.

Nonetheless, I've been prepared for treating (strategically, at least) the PCs as the frontrunners here, because (a) they're the current frontrunners province-wide, (b) this is supposedly "natural" Hudak-hometown country, and (c) a possible "redemption through municipal politics" factor softening some of the Harris-retread stigma attached to Bart Maves.

But "frontrunners" does not mean "invulnerable".

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll is clearly great news for the NDP. They've made up larger ground in less winnable seats in Southwestern Ontario before. Even with a few days before the election. The only difference now is that the political climate in the province/country has altered, and the Liberal brand is more popular now.

[adma]

The only difference now is that the political climate in the province/country has altered, and the Liberal brand is more popular now.

I'm not sure if the provincial brand is that much (if any) more popular than in the last batch or two of byelections (after all, Justinmania was no help in London or Windsor)--but it does seem that the WynneGrits in NF are trying hard to overcome their recent "third place beyond BurlOak" stigma; so it'd be foolish to write them off, and not just on "incumbent party" grounds...

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Great maps Krago, thank you.

For once I can relate them to my own memories: I went to Niagara Falls (Ontario) once.  I had not expected anywhere to be tackier than Blackpool.  I was wrong.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting fact, Tim Hudak actually represented part of the present day Niagara Falls riding before 1999 (Fort Erie, and the rural southern part of the City of Niagara Falls).

Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

[adma]

Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

I'd qualify that.  First re Kitchener-Waterloo: the NDP would have won within those boundaries in 1990; yet the fact remains that the actual predecessor seat was won by Liz Witmer--whose retirement spurred the NDP-steal byelection. 

And more to the point: all the 1990-era components of Scarborough-Guildwood went NDP that year--and the NDP still finished third, although much better than a lot expected.

But *absolutely* to the point: Etobicoke-Lakeshore's predecessor went Ruth Grier NDP by a landslide in 1990--and yet they lost their deposit in the byelection.

[lilTommy]

This might be Hudak "backyard" but it's also to some degree Horwath's; the party won over all of Hamilton, and held Niagara Centre without Kormos (although with an equally strong candidate). as Hatman mentioned the region has much more of an NDP history then say KW or London or even the other areas where the by-elections occurred last. In 1990 the NDP won every riding but St. Catharines; we also have to remember that the Niagara (except Niagara Centre or the old Welland-Thorold) tends to be a swing region, went Liberal in 87, NDP in 90 and PC in 95.