Armenia suspends participation in Russia led CSTO military alliance

[Storr]

"After more than two decades as part of a Moscow-led military alliance, Armenia has effectively suspended its membership as a result of a growing rift with Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Speaking to France24 on Friday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a club of former Soviet nations, "hasn’t fulfilled its security obligations towards Armenia."

"This couldn’t have gone without consequences. And the consequence is that in practice we have basically frozen our participation in the CSTO," Pashinyan said, accusing Moscow of failing to intervene in a simmering conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan, which is not a member of the alliance."

https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-military-alliance-loses-a-member/

[CumbrianLefty]

More proof that Russia cannot be trusted.

[SnowLabrador]

Russia supports Azerbaijan, so why would they defend Armenia?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More proof that Russia cannot be trusted.

Russia could be trusted to moderate Azeri gains over time (and Baku certainly was itching for a fight and had a strong advantage), but then the duo of UA vs RU sucking up Russian resources on one end, and Armenia angering Putin by distancing itself from Russia post-2018, meant Moscow had little incentive to defend Armenian interests.
Armenia ought to pick fewer stupid fights. It must either return to the pre-2018 status quo regarding Russia, or seek to draw itself closer to Iran and America to balance out Turkey and Azerbaijan. Unfortunately Pashayan is hardly any good and is practically as worthless as his predecessors here. This is a bad move for Armenia unless promises have been made that he can reasonably assume can be delivered.

[Sirius_]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

[rc18]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in in favour of Russian reliance than Turk reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

It seems a Zelensky visit is in the works too.
Armenian leadership betting that they get a Ukraine type deal from the West?
Wouldn't rule it out wholesale but it's an awfully risky gamble.

[icc]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Most of this is true, but trying to align with the West is basically a last resort, not an option that Pashinyan actively chose. It has become apparent that, post-Ukraine, Russia has neither the ability nor the inclination to defend Armenia (and, no, this is not due to Armenian political leadership).

Pashinyan's big gamble has not actually been in courting the west, it has been in attempting a rapprochement with Turkey. That is sensible, but even in a best case scenario it is obviously going to be a long process.

[rc18]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Most of this is true, but trying to align with the West is basically a last resort, not an option that Pashinyan actively chose. It has become apparent that, post-Ukraine, Russia has neither the ability nor the inclination to defend Armenia (and, no, this is not due to Armenian political leadership).

Pashinyan's big gamble has not actually been in courting the west, it has been in attempting a rapprochement with Turkey. That is sensible, but even in a best case scenario it is obviously going to be a long process.

You appear to be under the impression that Armenia's drift away from Russia began after the Ukraine war started, or at least Nagorno-Karabagh, that is completely wrong.

Instead it has everything to do with the 'Velvet Revolution' that Pashinyan led back in 2018 against Putin's puppet. From the very beginning Pashinyan's pitch was to move Armenia closer to the West and ending the endemic post-soviet corruption that is a key part of Putin's power network, just as much here as elsewhere. Yes it is true that he has been more conciliatory than the other revolutionaries and tried to keep Russia onside, but his whole schtick from 2018 has been effectively to ween Armenia off Putin's influence network. In case it hasn't been made clear over the last few years, Putin utterly despises what he sees as western-backed coups in his backyard.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh war was a punishment beating on Armenia from Putin. He could have easily stopped Aliyev, especially with the Iranian's help, instead he wanted to send a message to Yerevan to ditch Pashinyan.

Of course the events of the last 2 years mean that even if he wanted to reign Aliyev in now, the ability to cool the conflict is largely out of Putin's hands.

[icc]

You appear to be under the impression that Armenia's drift away from Russia began after the Ukraine war started, or at least Nagorno-Karabagh, that is completely wrong.

Instead it has everything to do with the 'Velvet Revolution' that Pashinyan led back in 2018 against Putin's puppet. From the very beginning Pashinyan's pitch was to move Armenia closer to the West and ending the endemic post-soviet corruption that is a key part of Putin's power network. Yes it is true that he has been more conciliatory than the other revolutionaries and tried to keep Russia onside, but his whole schtick from 2018 has been effectively to ween Armenia off Putin's influence network. In case it hasn't been made clear over the last few years, Putin utterly despises what he sees as western back-coups in his backyard.

This is true up to a point, but you massively overstate your case. Armenia was not as blindly pro-Russian after the Velvet Revolution, but it was still very much in the Russian sphere. The real break has come after the Russian failure to effectively aid Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, and Russia's failure to honour the CSO when Azerbaijan invaded sovereign Armenian territory in 2021. The Ukraine war has merely been an exacerbating factor.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh war was a punishment beating on Armenia from Putin. He could have easily stopped Aliyev, especially with the Iranian's help, instead he wanted to send a message to Yerevan to ditch Pashinyan.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War was not a 'punishment beating' from Putin, it was an humiliating failure for Russian forces after the Turkish intervention on behalf of Azerbaijan.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It is important to note that Armenians had lived in Karabagh for millennia up until the recent genocide and were always a majority of the population up until the Soviet period when then-head of the Committee on Ethnicities Joseph Stalin decided to change that fact.

Moscow hasn’t really been an ally of the Armenians for a long time now.

[Pres Mike]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Greece is an enemy of US/UK?

[SnowLabrador]

So Azerbaijan's going for the rest of Armenia now?

[Wiswylfen]

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Most of this is true, but trying to align with the West is basically a last resort, not an option that Pashinyan actively chose. It has become apparent that, post-Ukraine, Russia has neither the ability nor the inclination to defend Armenia (and, no, this is not due to Armenian political leadership).

Pashinyan's big gamble has not actually been in courting the west, it has been in attempting a rapprochement with Turkey. That is sensible, but even in a best case scenario it is obviously going to be a long process.

You appear to be under the impression that Armenia's drift away from Russia began after the Ukraine war started, or at least Nagorno-Karabagh, that is completely wrong.

Instead it has everything to do with the 'Velvet Revolution' that Pashinyan led back in 2018 against Putin's puppet. From the very beginning Pashinyan's pitch was to move Armenia closer to the West and ending the endemic post-soviet corruption that is a key part of Putin's power network, just as much here as elsewhere. Yes it is true that he has been more conciliatory than the other revolutionaries and tried to keep Russia onside, but his whole schtick from 2018 has been effectively to ween Armenia off Putin's influence network. In case it hasn't been made clear over the last few years, Putin utterly despises what he sees as western-backed coups in his backyard.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh war was a punishment beating on Armenia from Putin. He could have easily stopped Aliyev, especially with the Iranian's help, instead he wanted to send a message to Yerevan to ditch Pashinyan.

Of course the events of the last 2 years mean that even if he wanted to reign Aliyev in now, the ability to cool the conflict is largely out of Putin's hands.

Your commitment to being wrong is almost impressive. Of course, this is really nothing compared to your beliefs that Jeremy Corbyn is a communist, a French presidential approval rating is worth anything, Theresa May was part of a conspiracy to prevent Britain leaving the EU, Matthew Goodwin writes good articles, Social Grade is real, Tony Blair is a gay cross-dresser, Ireland is racist, Bexley is working-class, the 'Red Wall' consists of 'peripheral suburban sinkhole estates' that hate Labour, calling terrorists terrorists is racist, anyone who criticises Israel hates Israel, the Turkish election was rigged, the 'Western media' is trying to dehumanise Israelis, and Feltham is affluent.

[rc18]

You appear to be under the impression that Armenia's drift away from Russia began after the Ukraine war started, or at least Nagorno-Karabagh, that is completely wrong.

Instead it has everything to do with the 'Velvet Revolution' that Pashinyan led back in 2018 against Putin's puppet. From the very beginning Pashinyan's pitch was to move Armenia closer to the West and ending the endemic post-soviet corruption that is a key part of Putin's power network. Yes it is true that he has been more conciliatory than the other revolutionaries and tried to keep Russia onside, but his whole schtick from 2018 has been effectively to ween Armenia off Putin's influence network. In case it hasn't been made clear over the last few years, Putin utterly despises what he sees as western back-coups in his backyard.

This is true up to a point, but you massively overstate your case. Armenia was not as blindly pro-Russian after the Velvet Revolution, but it was still very much in the Russian sphere. The real break has come after the Russian failure to effectively aid Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, and Russia's failure to honour the CSO when Azerbaijan invaded sovereign Armenian territory in 2021. The Ukraine war has merely been an exacerbating factor.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh war was a punishment beating on Armenia from Putin. He could have easily stopped Aliyev, especially with the Iranian's help, instead he wanted to send a message to Yerevan to ditch Pashinyan.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War was not a 'punishment beating' from Putin, it was an humiliating failure for Russian forces after the Turkish intervention on behalf of Azerbaijan.

What Russian forces? The only Russian forces in the conflict apart from the existing token 'peacekeeping' force were a relatively small band of Wagner mercenaries. The wider Russian armed forces were not involved at all.

What grand 'Turkish intervention'? In 2020 Russia and Iran were hardly afraid of a few Turkish TB2s, or for that matter Israeli Harpies. The idea that the guy who just a year later prepares his troops for a massed invasion of a much larger country with a far more significant armed forces than Azerbaijan, Ukraine, was somehow afraid of the Turks sending some drones in is ridiculous. Turkish 'intervention' happened because Putin wasn't willing to back up Armenia, not in spite of it.

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Greece is an enemy of US/UK?

I said enemies of the US/UK axis. The US and UK are balls deep in supporting Turkey (and Azerbaijan). Turkey is the traditional opponent of Greece. Greece is naturally wary of relying too much on the US and UK in case they side with Turkey in their disputes. France traditionally acts as a counterweight.

Its time for the democratic sphere to fill that void.

That would be somewhat difficult when the US and UK are fully in Aliyev's pocket because of the oil and gas connection from the Caspian to Europe. That is even more true now that Russia is no longer diversifying the supply.

Same with the oil and gas transit state of Turkey. Notice how France typically fills the void and supplies military equipment to the enemies of the US/UK axis, for example selling Rafales to Greece and now supplying weapons to Armenia. France and Germany were far more in favour of Russian-reliance than Turk-reliance, hence why they were slow to react to the Ukraine war.

Even if the West was still semifunctional there will be no consensus in favour of Armenia. In fact if anything the continental powers are now also more reliant on Azerbaijan instead of Russia, even the French help might not last forever.

Armenia made a disasterous move in trying to align with a West that increasingly has no coherent interest in its existence.

Most of this is true, but trying to align with the West is basically a last resort, not an option that Pashinyan actively chose. It has become apparent that, post-Ukraine, Russia has neither the ability nor the inclination to defend Armenia (and, no, this is not due to Armenian political leadership).

Pashinyan's big gamble has not actually been in courting the west, it has been in attempting a rapprochement with Turkey. That is sensible, but even in a best case scenario it is obviously going to be a long process.

You appear to be under the impression that Armenia's drift away from Russia began after the Ukraine war started, or at least Nagorno-Karabagh, that is completely wrong.

Instead it has everything to do with the 'Velvet Revolution' that Pashinyan led back in 2018 against Putin's puppet. From the very beginning Pashinyan's pitch was to move Armenia closer to the West and ending the endemic post-soviet corruption that is a key part of Putin's power network, just as much here as elsewhere. Yes it is true that he has been more conciliatory than the other revolutionaries and tried to keep Russia onside, but his whole schtick from 2018 has been effectively to ween Armenia off Putin's influence network. In case it hasn't been made clear over the last few years, Putin utterly despises what he sees as western-backed coups in his backyard.

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh war was a punishment beating on Armenia from Putin. He could have easily stopped Aliyev, especially with the Iranian's help, instead he wanted to send a message to Yerevan to ditch Pashinyan.

Of course the events of the last 2 years mean that even if he wanted to reign Aliyev in now, the ability to cool the conflict is largely out of Putin's hands.

Your commitment to being wrong is almost impressive. Of course, this is really nothing compared to your beliefs that Jeremy Corbyn is a communist, a French presidential approval rating is worth anything, Theresa May was part of a conspiracy to prevent Britain leaving the EU, Matthew Goodwin writes good articles, Social Grade is real, Tony Blair is a gay cross-dresser, Ireland is racist, Bexley is working-class, the 'Red Wall' consists of 'peripheral suburban sinkhole estates' that hate Labour, calling terrorists terrorists is racist, anyone who criticises Israel hates Israel, the Turkish election was rigged, the 'Western media' is trying to dehumanise Israelis, and Feltham is affluent.

Well you seem normal...


It's nice to have a stalker though.

[Wiswylfen]

Well you seem normal...

It's nice to have a stalker though.

Normality is when you post hysterical nonsense from twenty years ago about Tony Blair being a gay cross-dresser who went cottaging and by the name Miranda because a Conservative-supporting, pro-hunting drug addict says so. The more you post it, the more normal you are. Oh and when you accuse anyone who calls terrorists terrorists of being racist.

That your posts are so bad I remember them is not something to be particularly proud of.

[Illiniwek]

Russia supports Azerbaijan, so why would they defend Armenia?

Is that really true? Up until recently hasn't Russia sided with Armenia?

[rc18]

Well you seem normal...

It's nice to have a stalker though.

Normality is when you post hysterical nonsense from twenty years ago about Tony Blair being a gay cross-dresser who went cottaging and by the name Miranda because a Conservative-supporting, pro-hunting drug addict says so. The more you post it, the more normal you are. Oh and when you accuse anyone who calls terrorists terrorists of being racist.

That your posts are so bad I remember them is not something to be particularly proud of.

Sir, this is a Wendy's.

[Wiswylfen]

Well you seem normal...

It's nice to have a stalker though.

Normality is when you post hysterical nonsense from twenty years ago about Tony Blair being a gay cross-dresser who went cottaging and by the name Miranda because a Conservative-supporting, pro-hunting drug addict says so. The more you post it, the more normal you are. Oh and when you accuse anyone who calls terrorists terrorists of being racist.

That your posts are so bad I remember them is not something to be particularly proud of.

Sir, this is a Wendy's.

Generally you *don't* use that one when your record of posting is the aforementioned hysterical nonsense, making absurd accusations of racism against everything and everyone, and freaking out when someone refers to owner-occupied middle-class suburbia as 'affluent' and then turning around and declaring Slough affluent.

But anyway that you are consistently wrong is, in fact, perfectly relevant in a thread where you are talking about things under the pretence of understanding them. Also more intellectually honest than you arguing against the idea that the Russian army was involved in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (which is an interesting reading of icc's post).

[DavidB.]

Commendable from my Western perspective, but not sure if wise purely from an Armenian perspective. The fact of the matter is that Turkey is a crucial NATO ally and is always going to have more leverage in the geopolitical West than tiny Armenia. In all honesty, Armenia seems safer off as a close ally to Russia, which only allowed Azerbaijan's takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh because it wanted to punish Armenia for moving away from Moscow. It would be different if the West were willing to stand by Armenia and offer a credible security arrangement, but I doubt this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The irony of Russian troops being in the wrong former SSR.

[Storr]

"Armenia asks Russia to recall the FSB border guards from its airport. Theirs was an unwelcome presence for many Armenians, thousands of anti-war Russians and a small number of Ukrainian refugees in the country.

But what's the price Armenia is going to pay for confronting Moscow?"

https://twitter.com/atanessi/status/1765498491176931569?s=20

[All Along The Watchtower]

Well, I suppose the Armenians can rely on—*checks notes*—uh, Iran?

Hoo boy..

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Armenian politicians are most well-known for wise foreign policy.

[moistnugget]

i miss serzh