Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Tonight at 8:15pm, the final and major debate on the ORF will take place - which will be watched by 1 million or more people. This one will be moderated and in front of an audience again.

I'll post the live-stream of the debate in the evening.

[Tender Branson]

The weather for Sunday:

Sunny and warm/hot with 20-29°C, no rain or anything.

Probably too nice for voting, because people could be outdoors for sports instead.

[Tender Branson]

Live stream for the final, major ORF debate between Hofer & VdB, which starts in 45 minutes:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Das-Duell-Norbert-Hofer-Alexander-Van-der-Bellen/12752429

[Tender Branson]

The "big" anti-Hofer demonstration in Vienna today turned out to be a major flop:

Instead of tens of thousands of people, only 400 (!) attended ...

[Tender Branson]

Seen in the major German newspaper "Zeit":



"Norbert Hofer: Plebeian Tribune" (or People's Tribune)

[Tender Branson]

Debate starts now ! (see live-stream above).

[Beezer]

Completely ridiculous that van der Bellen continues to state he wouldn't allow an FPÖ-led government to take office. What exactly is the constitutional basis for that hardline stance?

[Tender Branson]

The quality of the debate so far is like 9.8 of 10 points, the total opposite of the trash debate on Sunday.

Both candidates are very relaxed, competent on the issues, convincing and not attacking each other.

VdB even said stuff like: "On this topic I have to defend Mr. Hofer ..."

[Tender Branson]

Major ORF/Israel/terror/Hofer scandal just happened in the debate.

Will post more about it tomorrow ...

[Cranberry]

Basically, it's that Hofer invented a story about him witnessing some terrorist attack immediately next to him, and the Israeli police denied any knowledge of any attack in that respective time period - this comes a day after a renowned ORF journalist pressed Hofer on claiming he was the first FPÖ-MP to be officially received at the Knesset, when neither ther Knesset nor the Austrian Embassy in Jerusalem, nor even Hofer's co-traveler's, some Viennese councillor or whatever, press secretray confirmed any of that.

Very strange all together.

[rob in cal]

   Does the small turnout for the anti-Hofer protest signify anything? Hasn't this been planned for awhile also?  I get the feeling from the various discussions about him and articles that he doesn't inspire a massive opposition, or energize huge amounts of people to turnout to vote against him, unlike, say, the Le Pen vs Chirac runoff of the early 2000's.

[reciprocity]

I remember Tender saying that there was a similar demo done to stop the OVP in Vienna and it saw the SPO win. It is odd that people would be more motivated to protest a much more moderate right wing party to stop a win in a subnational election...

[Tender Branson]

Major ORF/Israel/terror/Hofer scandal just happened in the debate.

Will post more about it tomorrow ...

Basically, it's that Hofer invented a story about him witnessing some terrorist attack immediately next to him, and the Israeli police denied any knowledge of any attack in that respective time period - this comes a day after a renowned ORF journalist pressed Hofer on claiming he was the first FPÖ-MP to be officially received at the Knesset, when neither ther Knesset nor the Austrian Embassy in Jerusalem, nor even Hofer's co-traveler's, some Viennese councillor or whatever, press secretray confirmed any of that.

Very strange all together.

No. It's much more complex than that: The story is not invented, like you said. Even the ORF later backtracked from their accusations during the debate, which suggested Hofer was lying about the Knesset-visit and the terror incident. The ORF now acknowledged that there was an incident at the Western Wall, after Hofer posted the Haaretz article about it on his Facebook page ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2340143/2340144

Which leads us to the most troubling point: The state TV (ORF) deliberately went to Israel to ask a local police officer if there was an incident during Hofer's visit to the Wall, which he said there was not. Which further means that the ORF deliberately accused Hofer of lying, which he did not. There was an incident during his visit and Hofer also said he has pictures of him in the Knesset, but because the official, diplomatic Israel-FPÖ ties are still running under "boycott", there was an agreement from both sides that he cannot show them - yet. Under the surface, the Likud government is actually having meetings with the FPÖ already in case Hofer wins ...

But what struck me most during the heated debate: After the ORF moderator attacked Hofer for "lying" and Hofer strongly defended it, the audience then furiously applauded when Hofer virtually outed the ORF as the Lügenpresse (=> "lying press") - with their only goal to destroy the FPÖ candidate.

[Flocke]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Of course he lied, he said a terrorist armed with machine guns and hand grenades was shot next to him. As it turns out an unarmed Israeli women was shot in the leg, and according to an David Lasar, a FPÖ politician who accompanied him, they were leaving a parking space, when police told them they can't, because of this incident.

And nobody doubts that he was at the Knesset, but his team claimed it was an official visit. The whole point was, that electing Hofer would mean electing a president that will be boycotted by Israel, which still is true.

[Cranberry]

^ Exactly. There is a huge difference between "a woman was shot down right next to me, it was so very dangerous" and a non-lethal incident happening somewhere in their vicinity resulting in them not being allowed to exit a parking space, which is (apparently?) what really happened. He did lie, he did lie a great deal, maybe to make up some piteous story or whatever, it doesn't really matter - the point is he lied, which poises a far greater question - what else did/does he lie about. This is a serious issue that should be talked about.

Secondly, you claiming "the ORF deliberately went to Israel" - the ORF in all likelihood has a bureau in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem or wherever, so it probably was a very small matter to contact the police chief of, was it Jerusalem or even a representative of the Israeli police leadership? The fact that an official representative of the Israeli police officially reported that there was no such deadly incident at the Temple Mountain at the respective time period should be worrying - the sad thing is I can already hear the "Lügenkresse!!1!!1!" (a Austrian/German pun on "Lügenpresse" ("lying press") which is a Nazi-term now used by the usual suspects whenever the mainstream media reports on certain things they don't like, and "Kresse" which means "cress") cries.

Thirdly, to this whole Knesset thing again - no one claims Hofer wasn't there. Heck, for all I care he could have been dancing naked in the Lok Sabha and no one would either care nor not believe him. The whole point is that he was repeatedly claiming it was an "official" visit, which it just simply was not. We don't know if he met with the then Vice Speaker of the Knesset, and frankly, that's not the issue - if he says he so, well he will have done so, I nor anyone else really cares. The fact that it was completely hidden from the public is proof enough that it was not an official visit - and trust me, a guy that wore a f-ing cornflower (in the 30ies the sign of the then prohibited Nazi party in Austria) won't get one from Israel so quick. The point remains again from above - he lied about that.

What we get from that is more and more the picture of a compulsive liar...

[DavidB.]

The whole point was, that electing Hofer would mean electing a president that will be boycotted by Israel, which still is true.

That's really not going to happen. Israel will maintain normal relations with Austria and with whoever is elected president, whether it's VdB or Hofer.

[reciprocity]

Interesting at how pro-Israel Hofer is. The relationship to Israel truly is the divide of the far right IMO and it seems very controversial. Some of them are very anti-Israeli (a legacy of you know who and what) but you do see a very new pro-Israeli faction of far right politics.

[DavidB.]

Interesting at how pro-Israel Hofer is. The relationship to Israel truly is the divide of the far right IMO and it seems very controversial. Some of them are very anti-Israeli (a legacy of you know who and what) but you do see a very new pro-Israeli faction of far right politics.

In countries where nationalism has historically been tied to the resistance movement instead of the nazi movement, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, the far right has been pro-Israel for quite some time already.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Profil magazine has posted a cell phone picture from the incident, in which the woman was shot.

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/norbert-hofer-israel-bilder-6372212

It looks like a bunch of Israeli people and children around an ambulance or something. Not that I care much about how it went, nor to defend Hofer all too much - but it seems the FPÖ-delegation was at least nearby at the scene when the woman terrorist was shot by Israeli security forces. Hofer's account that she was "killed" could have been a misinterpretation, because if you are in a hectic situation like this where a person gets gunned down by police officers, you can easily assume that the woman was in fact actually dead - especially if the police quickly seals off the area afterwards.

Plus, the Knesset visit might not have been "official", but it's as "official" as it can get for the FPÖ delegation that was there. Remember that there's still the FPÖ boycott in place by the "official Israel", so a secret meeting with the Vice-President of the Knesset from Likud can be seen as "official" ... Of course, both sides probably had an agreement to keep it secret until Hofer is in fact President and ties can be re-established between Likud and the FPÖ on an official basis.

So, in fact it wasn't Hofer who was lying. Or the ORF. More like a combination of secret/false/misleading information.

[Tender Branson]

Today was the last day to request postal ballots for the runoff.

Some states have already released their numbers and requests are up by a lot compared with the first round:

In Vienna, Styria and Salzburg requests are up by 40%, in Tyrol by 55%.

Austria-wide, 642.000 ballots were requested in round 1 and for the runoff probably 900.000 (which is by far a new record for absentee ballots).

I'll post the exact numbers later.

[Tender Branson]

More than 1.4 million people watched the final ORF debate yesterday - which is almost every 4th eligible voter (out of 6.38 million).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160520_OTS0080/bis-zu-14-millionen-sahen-das-duell-im-orf

[Hnv1]

The whole point was, that electing Hofer would mean electing a president that will be boycotted by Israel, which still is true.

That's really not going to happen. Israel will maintain normal relations with Austria and with whoever is elected president, whether it's VdB or Hofer.

Probably maintain relationship without recalling ambassador but he will not be welcome here on a state visit and president Rivlin will not meet him.

Frauke Petry was also here not long ago but again not a state visit (she wasn't even invited by any MK I think). MKs can invite who ever they want but it's not a state visit if it's  not according to protocol by the invitation of the foreign office (PM\FM meeting, House speaker [not deputy!], leader of the opposition, the president).

Regarding the incident, shocking a politician exaggerates...but he clearly wasn't at the incident, the parking lot is some 300-400 metres away. 

[Tender Branson]

The much higher number of postal ballots (which are counted on Monday) means that VdB can still win the election, even if all the precinct votes that are counted on Sunday show Hofer ahead by 53-47.

But for this, VdB needs to win the postal vote by at least 65-35 or more ...

[rob in cal]

    Tender, I wonder if the extra high amount of postal ballots might lead to a different breakdown of how well VDB does with them, because maybe Hofer voters are part of the surge as well.

[DavidB.]

It looks like a bunch of Israeli people and children around an ambulance or something. Not that I care much about how it went, nor to defend Hofer all too much - but it seems the FPÖ-delegation was at least nearby at the scene when the woman terrorist was shot by Israeli security forces.

Except that she was not a terrorist...

But yes, I agree with your conclusion -- but it's definitely more Hofer than the ORF that has been making up things.