That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States
Exactly this (plus NV/AZ/GA too).
It would be possible for the EC advantage to shift back toward Trump again.
No it isn’t.
In 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump.
Not really. Most serious pundits thought Trump’s EC advantage would be significantly larger than it ended up being.
Remember that people thought Biden would win the PV by a lot more than he did in reality, whereas the eventual EC result was very close to the actual state-by-state breakdown that people expected.
I saw many predictions where Biden was winning the NPV by 7 or even 9 points but Biden was still under 300 EVs. If you’d told them Biden would only carry the PV by 4 points in the end, many of them would’ve taken that to spell certain doom for him.
The election results in places like MD, IL, NY, and especially CA were way closer than people thought they would be. Trump also outperformed expectations in safe red states, just not to the same extent. However the 2020 “red wave” didn’t really reach the swing states at all (aside from exceptions like WI), since Biden’s campaign did a good job of targeting the real battlegrounds.