Who won the first debate? (user search)
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  Who won the first debate? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Clinton (I support Clinton)
 
#2
Clinton (I support Trump)
 
#3
Clinton (I support Other)
 
#4
Trump (I support Clinton)
 
#5
Trump (I support Trump)
 
#6
Trump (I support Other)
 
#7
Tie (I support Clinton)
 
#8
Tie (I support Trump)
 
#9
Tie (I support Other)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 297

Author Topic: Who won the first debate?  (Read 10140 times)
Gustaf
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Atlas Star
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Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: September 27, 2016, 04:32:31 AM »

I think there is one very simple and important metric to evaluate the debate.

Trump started off being very non-Trump, referring to her as Secretary Clinton, saying he agreed with her on issues, being nice and polite. This clearly shows his campaign people (some of whom are now reasonably competent) have concluded that the Trump thing doesn't work and that his base of deplorables is insufficient to win the election. They concluded he needed the presidential pivot to reel back in college-educated whites.

This strategy quickly fell apart completely because Trump is Trump. He didn't manage to do what his own campaign clearly thought he needed to do. That's a defeat. Also note that he brought no new material but was focused on existing talking points while Clinton had new lines of attacks.

Additionally, I suspect his conciliatory tone won't help enthuse his base and the way the debate on economics played out made him sound more like generic Republican than someone who can steal working class whites and Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, this debate covered economics, national security and making America great again. Polling indicates these are Trump's strong areas. Once we do stuff like immigration and education I suspect he'll struggle even more.

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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2016, 05:09:58 AM »

Watched from the trump hotel.   Trump isnt speaking to the political hacks like ones found on this forum. Hes speaking to working class, simple minded folks.  Remember during the primary nights like this the same stuff was said of how trump lost and looked stupid etc.  The media narrative each time was that Rubio won.  We all know how that turned out when the voters actually voted.   Trump isnt running as the type of candidate Hillary has to run as.  Hes basically avg joe running for president. 

Speaking to “simple minded folks” isn’t a justification for lies and putting out wrong facts.

And, more important: I want to see what these “simple minded folks” are saying if the Trumpster gets into office without delivering results. His lack of knowledge and substance has once again showed us, that he has no real solutions for the problems of these “simple minded folks”. He hasn’t a clue. He failed to lay out specific solutions for any problems. And these “solutions” he’s put out have been disproved over and over again by independent and even conservative fact checkers. Fact checking may be boring, but a falsehood doesn’t become true/effective if you just repeat it multiple times. It just won’t work. These “simple minds folks” will rub their eyes if President Trump starts a trade war, blows the deficit, loses millions of jobs and weakens America’s standing in the world (just to name a few consequences of his election).


Neither did Hillary.   No politician gives very detailed specific policy during a campaign.    Can anyone remember specific Obamacare policy being laid out in 2008? 

Nobody cares about fact checking because if they did Hillary wouldn't be on that stage.

Hillary Clinton put out detailed plans on her website and she proved at the debate, that she’s well aware of the problems, at home and abroad. She proved, that she sees them in all their complexity. Not so her opponent. Once again he demonstrated his lack of knowledge on many issues, on many occasions. Someone who isn’t aware of problems as they are, not as he likes them to be, isn’t capable for the job.

Sure, you can’t explain very complex things in two minute answers, but it is clear that she has the background knowledge Mr. Trump lacks. Even more troubling is his ignorance and unwillingness to prepare and to learn. This also makes him unfit in terms of character.


He isn't supposed to have all the political insider knowledge  that a politician knows.   Thats the whole point of his campaign 

That giving nukes to Saudi Arabia is a bad idea or that starting a war with Iran is a bad idea or that invading Syria with ground forces is a bad idea or that bankrupting the US by reneging on debt is a bad idea or that dismantling the WTO and NATO are bad ideas is none of it "political insider knowledge". It's just knowledge.

Of course, understanding how to do politics is ALSO important if you wanna get things done as knows anyone who knows anything about US politics. If you're truly THAT ignorant about your country maybe you should let other people vote and stay out of it.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2016, 08:50:37 AM »

Of course a larger number increasing by more in absolute numbers doesn't say much. The Republican ballots increased by 8.9% the Democratic ones by 7.2%. That's just noise.

So even if StatesPolls "point" wasn't idiocy on a conceptual level it's dumb even within his own framework. Again, it's pretty telling how attitudes to Trump correlate strongly with cognitive ability.
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