Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[jaichind]

There must be another something like 4 million mail in ballots for CA left to be counted.  Should make it something like Clinton +1.5% nationally when those votes are counted.

[jaichind]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19

Is the current count (128,542,304) (Clinton 61,292,712 and Trump 60,565,143)

http://www.electproject.org/2016g

Is projected votes (133,983,600)

If so it seems there are still around 5.5 million votes out there of which around 3.7 million of them are in CA.  Under these assumptions Trump will exceed 62 million votes and beat out Bush II 2004 vote totals while Clinton will miss out of Obama 2012 vote total by over a million votes.

[jaichind]

Looking at the estimated votes per state and looking at what has been counted already.  I did a back of the envelope calculation based on the premise that votes coming to be counted matches existing vote shares of votes counted already.   That gives us

Total votes: 134.1 million

Clinton    64.44 million votes  48.1%
Trump     62.67 million votes  46.8%

For a Clinton win of 1.3%

States which still have a lot of votes outstanding are AZ OH AK CA MT NE WA VW WY

[jaichind]

Turnout patterns was a friend of Trump.  A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the assumption that the vote shares per state stays the same but turnout rates are the same in 2016 as 2012 yields that result goes from a projected Clinton 48.1% Trump 46.8% to Clinton 48.2% Trump 46.6%.   

[jaichind]

Will this election's turnout exceed 2008's turnout?

Clearly not in terms of turnout percentage.  Although in terms of raw number of votes 2016 will exceed 134 million votes beating 2008's 131 million votes.

[jaichind]

Using http://www.electproject.org/2016g as basis we can estimate the number of uncounted votes in various states which still have a bunch are

CA:    3.7 million
WA:  435K
AZ:   410K
OH:  325K
GA:    95K
FL:     85K
NY      60K
AK:     60K
AL:     50K

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        61.50 million     47.72%
Trump         60.67 million     47.07%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.68 million     48.10%
Trump         62.77 million     46.68%

For a Clinton victory of 1.42%

[jaichind]

Why did the networks call Arizona for Trump with all this votes allegedly to be counted? Isn't a Clinton upset still be possibile?

Not sure.  Could be they know a lot of those votes are in GOP leaning counties and/or there are a lot of military votes

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        61.96 million     47.77%
Trump         60.96 million     47.00%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.86 million     48.11%
Trump         62.89 million     46.65%

For a Clinton victory of 1.46%

If these trends continue Clinton might cross 65 million and Trump might cross 63 million and Clinton will clear 1.5% in terms of vote share lead.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        62.52 million     47.84%
Trump         61.30 million     46.90%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.94 million     48.11%
Trump         62.93 million     46.62%

For a Clinton victory of 1.49%

Most likely Clinton will exceed 65 million and Trump will exceed 63 million.  Trump will have won the most number of votes any GOP candidate in history beating out Bush II 2004's 62 million performance.

[jaichind]

Nate Cohn suggests now that HRC may have won college-educated whites after all.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/798982241141407744

If that was true then Trump won non-college Whites by an even greater margin than the 40% lead the exit polls suggested.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        62.84 million     47.87%
Trump         61.50 million     46.84%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.99 million     48.10%
Trump         62.97 million     46.61%

For a Clinton victory of 1.49%

[jaichind]

The link says 3.1 million (as of yesterday).

Those numbers include provisional votes.  Most likely a lot of them will be thrown out. Still it is a fact that there still are, as of right now, more than 2 million more votes in CA that are not part of the total that will be.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.05 million     47.90%
Trump         61.61 million     46.81%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.07 million     48.12%
Trump         63.00 million     46.58%

For a Clinton victory of 1.55%

Now Clinton is on track to exceed 65 million and Trump is on track to exceed 63 million

[jaichind]

So far only 7 states have "locked down" their numbers.  Namely NH DE LA ND SC VT and WY

[jaichind]

Big ones left are (estimated)
 
CA    2.2 million
OH   320K
WA   200K
FL     160K
AZ    150K
CO     80K
GA     80K

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.54 million     47.98%
Trump         61.86 million     46.71%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.15%
Trump         63.06 million     46.54%

For a Clinton victory of 1.61%

If this trend continues Clinton might even get close to the 2012 Obama votes (65.92 million)

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.66 million     47.98%
Trump         61.95 million     46.69%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.14%
Trump         63.05 million     46.52%

For a Clinton victory of 1.62%

I suspect the true size of victory will be smaller than this since all things equal the estimate of outstanding ballots are overestimated since not all of them necessary voted for President.

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
HI           42.7%                    41.7%         -2.5%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[jaichind]

Not quite sure where you are pulling the estimated vote outstanding numbers from, but it is important to note that in California the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" overstates the number outstanding, since it is the last to update based upon when counties decide to process. The county websites are generally better, since some of the larger counties post more updated information than has been provided to the state, but even so many counties don't update those numbers frequently, plus some of the provisional and miscellaneous ballots will be thrown out for various reasons.

I use

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602

which I totally agree overcounts the number of votes outstanding in many states  It is underestimates votes in other states  as it is behind the real count in several states.  My calculation is based on the MAX() between this sheet and the current count.

[jaichind]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be fair Obama 2012 won almost 66M votes.  It is Trump, who is already above 62M, and most likely will cross 63M that will break the Bush II 2004 record of 62M votes.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.86 million     47.99%
Trump         62.09 million     46.66%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.22 million     48.13%
Trump         63.04 million     46.52%

For a Clinton lead of 1.61%

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

Edit: fixed HI

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           42.7%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

The Hawaii entry in the difference column is off. It ought to be -1.0%, no?

Typo .. will fix now

[jaichind]

I'm hearing that there are enough provisional ballots out in Ohio to flip the state.

I think only if they go something like 95-5 for Clinton