The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He has to realize he has a 0% chance of winning the nomination, right?

Like Pataki cares what the atlas consensus is

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Man, the first debate is gonna have 20 people on the stage.

It'll be... a circus!

And it'll be 3 or 4 hours long instead of the usual 1.5-2 hours.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2016's Parallel to Jon Huntsman is seriously thinking about it

YES!!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walker to MN next week.

Ugh, go away.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What's keeping Warren supporters hopeful of a run?

1. Obama originally said he wouldn't run in 2008, and then changed his mind. (Of course, the change of heart came before April 2007 , but whatever)
2. She had to be drafted into the 2012 senate race.
3. Bill Clinton didn't enter the 1992 race until November 1991.

Also mentions that the supporters of Warren realize she doesn't want to run, but hope she will come around to recognizing that this really is her calling through the devoted draft effort.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/04/the-warren-fans-who-wont-take-no-for-an-answer/391131/

Edit: Obama actually started reconsidering his decision not to run in October 2006, making point 1 rather moot, as Warren has not begun reconsidering at all:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/22/AR2006102200220.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At the end of this article, it is mentioned that Pelosi is visiting New Hampshire this weekend:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/240648-pelosi-welcomes-sanders-to-2016-race

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#RunPelosiRun
#PelosicanbeatHillary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Snyder out.

Wow. He seemed geniuely interested.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Santorum to announce May 27

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/06/politics/rick-santorum-election-2016-announcement/index.html

Spoiler: He will lose the nomination.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kasich "almost certain" to run.

YAY!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 4 is Perry's announcement date.

Why does Perry have this uncontrollable compulsion for self humiliation? And just who is going to give him any money this time?

He thinks he's learned his lessons from his 2012 campaign and can win this time.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

I define a joke candidate as someone who is essentially hopeless in terms of getting the nomination, not someone who is simply inexperienced or unelectable in the GE. Bachmann in say, November 2011, would have qualified. She wouldn't have qualified in august when she was winning the ames straw poll. Carson may qualify in the future, but he doesn't for now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kasich is visiting GA and SC this week and seems close to entering:
http://huff.to/1ReJupB

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, and Perry are fighting for a different base of voters, so Pataki only has to win the Moderate primary (plausible) and then win against the Conservative Primary's winner and Rand Paul (much less likely) to get the nomination.

I'd rate his chances at about 10%, same as Fiorina, ahead of Perry, and just behind Kasich.

Fiorina has a 10% chance at the nomination? LOLOLOLOL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Warren still refusing to endorse Hillary:
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/herald_bulldog/2015/05/warren_undecided_on_who_shell_back_in_2016_race

RUN WARREN RUN!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bush to make decision after early June foreign trip:
http://www.cnn.com//2015/05/31/politics/jeb-bush-decision-presidential-run/index.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Bush does not run, it will be the biggest surprise since Roberts winning by 11 in 2014.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump says he won't do the Iowa straw poll if (almost) everyone else backs out. Also sounds like a candidate throughout this transcribed interview:
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/06/01/trump-i-wont-do-iowa-straw-poll-if-everyone-backs-out/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I mean, his family members have to realize he has no shot of winning the nomination, right? Right?

Christie has an opening if Bush, Rubio, and Walker all implode.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How exactly are we defining "outpouring of support?"

One Voter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=214263.0

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walker tells FOX he'll announce in about a month. He's also coming up here to Canada for a governors/premiers confab and meeting Harper.

I just hope he's not waiting too late.  I can appreciate that he wants to finish his job as governor with the budget, but I think hopping into the race a month before the first debate is a little risky.  Anyone else agree?

Not to mention the last national poll has him at 7%

You're thinking of either an older poll or a statewide poll. The last National Poll has Walker tied for 2nd with Carson at 10%. Bush and Huckabee are tied for first at 12%:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=214344.0

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Announcement Schedule Update:

Jindal: June 24
Christie: "this month"
Walker: July 13
Kasich: "this summer"
Ehrlich, Gilmore, King:

Webb: "within the next two weeks"
Biden: "by Aug. 1"
Bloomberg, DeBlasio:

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Announcement Schedule Update:

Jindal: June 24
Christie: "this month"
Walker: July 13
Kasich: "this summer"
Ehrlich, Gilmore, King:

Webb: "within the next two weeks"
Biden: "by Aug. 1"
Bloomberg, DeBlasio:

Not quite.  For example, Webb said "within two weeks" when there were exactly two weeks left in June.  Kasich and King also said they'd decide by the end of this month.  So it's:

Jindal: June 24
Christie, Kasich, King, Webb: will "decide" by the end of June, though I suppose the actual announcement might slip into early July
Walker: July 13
Biden: by Aug. 1
Ehrlich, Gilmore, Palin: unknown

AFAIK, neither Bloomberg nor DeBlasio have said that they're thinking about running, so not sure why they would be listed.3

There is apparently an effort in some democratic circles to draft Bloomberg, and DeBlasio gets included in a primary poll every so often.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Current Predictions:

Running:

Jindal
Walker
Christie
Kasich
Gilmore
Webb

Not Running:

Ehrlich
King
Palin
Bloomberg
DeBlasio
Biden