‘Democratic Party Has No Earthly Idea Why Hillary Clinton Lost’ (user search)
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  ‘Democratic Party Has No Earthly Idea Why Hillary Clinton Lost’ (search mode)
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Author Topic: ‘Democratic Party Has No Earthly Idea Why Hillary Clinton Lost’  (Read 4247 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,759


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: December 26, 2016, 05:19:23 AM »

She didn't do anything wrong. Her 3 million vote win loss was just a weird geographic fluke.

The last thing the party needs to do is grossly overreact.

Does some third way sh**tty Democrat need to repeat 1984 for Democrats to wake the hell up?
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,759


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2016, 09:41:21 PM »

Literally the dumbest thing Democrats can do at this point is "oh well, just a weird fluke, we did nothing wrong, carry on Smiley"

No, the dumbest thing we can do is drastically overreact and completely change our strategy that's won us the most votes in 6 of the last 7 elections.

Did Hillary have some weaknesses? Sure. Should we try to nominate a candidate in 2020 that can win by MORE than 3,000,000, in case the electoral college fluke happens again? Yes. Are things so bad that we need to reinvent the party from scratch? Of course not.

I think Democrats control the fewest state governments ever. They need drastic change.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,759


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2016, 12:01:39 AM »

I think Democrats control the fewest state governments ever. They need drastic change.

I agree that the party needs some decent changes, but I'm curious about just how much success you think is possible on the back of that alone? Democratic control at the state level was pretty inflated due to the South, and that is a Republican stronghold now. We aren't getting that back for a long time, if ever (besides some select states here and there trending our way). Numerous structural pro-Republican advantages in the electorate are going to prevent Democrats from dominating in the states like we did over a generation ago. Not unless some earth-shattering realignment of white voters occurs.

Maybe worth noting too that the Republican Party was exceptionally weak at the state level even while it was dominating presidential elections. The electoral benefits they reaped nationally eventually did trickle down to the states in the 90s-now.

Democrats need to make changes for sure, but party issues are really not the only reason, probably not even the primary reason that Democrats are weak at the state level right now.

Democrats control zero state chambers in any Trump state, and are missing the trifecta most Hillary states. Democrats have done really badly down ticket. In 1994, Democrats had controlled the House for 40 years. They've only had it 4 years since then. Hillary's strategy of saying that other Republicans weren't as bad as Trump really hurt down ticket Democrats. And 3rd way throwing progressives under the bus didn't help either. Hillary may have won the popular vote, but she didn't win the electoral vote, which is what counts, and if basically every congressional race votes the same as President, a Democrat needs to win by several points to win the Senate and House, since the median state and congressional district are a fair amount more Republican than the country as a whole. The people don't want 3rd way neoliberalism any more. It's time for someone to address the issues that people care about.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,759


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2016, 06:28:32 PM »

Literally the dumbest thing Democrats can do at this point is "oh well, just a weird fluke, we did nothing wrong, carry on Smiley"

No, the dumbest thing we can do is drastically overreact and completely change our strategy that's won us the most votes in 6 of the last 7 elections.

Did Hillary have some weaknesses? Sure. Should we try to nominate a candidate in 2020 that can win by MORE than 3,000,000, in case the electoral college fluke happens again? Yes. Are things so bad that we need to reinvent the party from scratch? Of course not.

I think Democrats control the fewest state governments ever. They need drastic change.

THere at the same place they were in the late 1940s



It's lower now, with only 3,129 Democrats. And I'm sure the gap is much more outside of Northern New England, which is overrepresented with 701 seats just in their upper Houses.
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