UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have so little organisation in this constituency that they don't even run candidates in local elections in most of it, which is the difference between 10% here and 15% in Witney. It's pretty clear that the Labour vote (such as it is) mostly didn't show up rather than jumped ship; enthusiasm levels really are that low at present. That's the one thing you can take away from this for sure, but then we knew it anyway. But I will remember all the #analysis for the next time the Tories poll abysmally in a rock solid Labour seat in a by-election

Anyway this was a low turnout by-election in a rural constituency in December. Other than demonstrating that the Shires Tory vote is happy enough right now to turn out like a machine (which is not entirely useless, but then they do this even when mildly unhappy lol) and the fact that supporters of opposition parties are not exactly enthused right now there's not a lot that can be usefully drawn from this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were some silly internet rumours last night that Labour was at risk of losing its deposit; if they came originally from people at the count then I presume these came from people not familiar with the weirdness of counts in big rural seats. Or who just can't count. Or both.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt Brexit was an issue here, at least not for Labour. Simple case of Labour supporters being unenthusiastic due to everything and this being a constituency with no real organisation. The Brexit issue has directly lost Labour some votes(temporarily?) but at the other end; a lot of clichéd Grauniad readers (whether they actually read the paper or not) unhappy at the neutral line taken by the leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a safe seat and if Hunt had a personal vote it was strictly negative, though these aren't good circumstances with which to trigger a by-election so to be wary is natural.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, this is a three-way marginal

No it's not; Hunt's majority is/was 17% and the second placed candidate polled 23%. Obviously the circumstances of the by-election and the poor national polling position means that caution and care is nevertheless required, but that's a different matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The sad part is that he's become very unpopular without being hated. I think people just see him as pathetic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed. Hanged himself with a multi-coloured skipping rope.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, people don't vote in by-elections like they do in general elections, but I'm not convinced this thing about the government not having gained a seat in a by-election since 1982 is that meaningful in this context: most oppositions were not polling as badly as Corbyn's Labour, so there weren't many comparable opportunities.

We can go further: not only were most Oppositions polling better than the present one but most Opposition seats that have held by-elections have had larger majorities than Copeland. And the circumstances of the by-election - Honourable Member quits seat for a better paying job - are not good for a defence. The inverse also applies: if the seat is held it would hardly prove that everything is hunky-dory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saw some awful BBC report about Stoke the other day. They featured some guy who they described as a "rare breed - a Remain voter in Stoke". Actually about 1 in 3 voters in Stoke backed Remain so that's a real stretch of the term 'rare breed', just as it would be to describe a Leave voter in Richmond Park as a 'rare breed'.

Anyhow, what chance that Farage returns to the leadership within the next week?

FPTP has kind of warped British minds when it comes to analysing referendum results...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be careful about all early rumours from counts they're often... well... bad. In potentially all directions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I await the pathetic excuses with morbid curiosity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comfortable enough hold in a safe seat (despite less than ideal circumstances), clear loss in marginal; you might take this if you were the government party in your second term. But not, I think, if you are the Opposition. This is not acceptable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But fear not comrades: a local by-election was gained in Basingstoke the other way! Everything is absolutely fine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

The circumstances of the by-elections were bad (voters don't like to have to vote in 'unnecessary' elections etc) and there are some additional local issues in Copeland,* but it's mostly, yeah, that the extremely unpopular Jeremy Corbyn is a massive electoral drag. Particularly, as it turns out, in that he's a huge incentive for Tories to turn out and for wavering voters to vote Tory. Media #analysis about CORE LABOUR VOTERS and BREXIT looks misplaced; the problem is more traditional...

_{*But then would these - e.g. the importance of the local nuclear industry - even be a problem with another leader?}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Tories had squeezed into second in Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2015 and the media hadn't blown the whole thing up as Lab vs UKIP the Tories could well have run Labour very dangerously close there too by squeezing UKIP.

Hahahaha. No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing: Team Corbyn have highlighted the nuclear issue as an excuse for the result. It's undeniably a reason - the local economy is dominated by Sellafield (which is why it is a prosperous area with a high average income) and there are proposals for a new power station etc - but is the very opposite of an excuse as one Corbyn, J. gave a trainwreck interview in which he indicated that he does not support civil nuclear power, which I gather got rather a lot of attention in the constituency. If you want to know why it was a 2k majority rather than one of 200 or so, well...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

You underestimate how much support has been lost as a result of the stance Corbyn has taken over Brexit. It's... um... bad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly is Corbyn and his crowd hoping for at this point in time?

Once Labour gets into an all out factional fyck pie the usual political calculations go out the window. What matters is to defeat the the other faction or at least to prevent them from winning. I guess some also have a sort of sub-Menshevik/PCI delusion that Their Time Will Come If Only They Stick At It, but the former mentality is more important.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am skeptical of some of the results.

You shouldn't put too much stock into polling internals and you especially shouldn't put much into YouGov's. But. Corbyn is undeniably slightly less popular than lung cancer at present. Worse: he's widely seen as a joke...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Momentum's contribution to the cause in Copeland was to... er... arrange a screening in the constituency of I, Daniel Blake. Further comment is entirely superfluous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a bit of a mixed bag of a constituency; solidly working class and frankly outright poor for the most part, but with a big student population and general university influence. Substantial Asian population though not to the extent as is often assumed. Gorton CLP is a notorious basket case and is currently suspended.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the CLP is suspended does that allow the NEC to pick the candidate?

Don't remember 100% but I think so. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also the added complication that most members at selection meetings don't base their decisions off factional alignment as a rule...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, what are the rules about AWS for by-elections?

Shortlisting for by-elections is entirely an NEC matter.