2013 Elections in Germany

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since it wasn't answered in  the old thread:

Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So razor-thin upset victories happen for the left as well once in a while!

1973

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

German election billboards seem easy enough to make: take a stock photo, add a party logo somewhere, and then attach a corny partisan message of some kind.

Indeed. Those posters sort of amplifies the stereo-type of strict humourless Germans very well.

This is what an election poster is suppouse to look like:

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

Palandio is talking about the Bayern State Election, not the federal election.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

Palandio is talking about the Bayern State Election, not the federal election.

Sorry, I overlooked that they meant the election in Bavaria. My bad! However, I think that these are interesting facts nonetheless.

Of course.
And welcome to the forum.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So what parties are likely to switch leaders after the election? And who are the likely succesors?

Potential Merkel succesors have already been discussed in the thread but what about the other parties?

Daniel Bahr seems like a potential future FDP leader. Seems handsome and sympathetic from what I've read. Am I correct?   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sigh... This place, always filled with nit pickers.

Fine! Who are the potential next top names of the parties? (Chancellor-candidates or what you want to call it, although its redicolous to think any of the minor three has a chance at the chancellorship)
And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

That can really only be answered by a wall of text or not at all. Though it's not, of course, the "same system as America". Think of it rather as the same system as France... sans Président.

I'm a law student. I eat walls of text for lunch.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As see it there are either a CDU+FDP guvernment or CDU+SPD. But even if CDU and FDP gets a majority, might Merkel forme a Grand coalition du too the red-green majority in the Bundesrat?

This would be highly unusual and unlikely. And by that logic, Germany would probably be  governed by a Grand coalition most of the time, because any government - be at CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens - usually loses its majority in the Bundesrat sooner or later.

Sounds like how it works in Austria.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In my small rural community, the results will be something like
CSU: 58%
Greens: 16%
SPD: 8%
Free Voters: 7%
FDP: 4%
Others: 7%

''

People vote for the Greens in rural Bayern? O.o

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What more shocking insights do you have to share Phil? Is grass green and John Travolta gay?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In fairness I'm presuming Phil was joking - I laughed, anyway.

Speaking of people with obvious insights...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Haha f u.

I love you too.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

FDP 4.7
AfD 4.9
(ARD)

This will be a long evening.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm almost certain AfD will get in.
I would be more happy if that didn't mean a Grand Coalition. (Not that a CDU majority would be a given even if the AfD stayed out.)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I think that Merkel said she regrets that FDP did not make it on ZDF TV. I am surprised that she has the time to go to ZDF studios to get interviewed.  You would think she would be deep in the CDU/CSU bunker looking over results and figuring out what to do.

Not much she can do until there is a clearer picture.

As to governing as a minority government, wouldn't that be a possible scenario if AfD gets in? A few of them supports her chancellorship, and then her government negotiates with different parties for every Bundestag vote.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The bitterness over Merkel's popularity from some posters are like sweet music to my ears.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Merkel unsurprisingly holds her seat, with 56,2% of the vote. (Compared to 45,0% for CDU on the list vote)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Now, if they tried to "overthrow" Merkel after she almost got an absolute majority, it would be certainly perceived as a coup d'état, with even worse media response. I am sure there'd also be assassination attempts against SPD and Green leaders; some media would even condone this.

Excessive hyperbole, much...

Status of coalition talks:

CSU doesn't want to govern with the Greens, parts of the SPD don't want to govern with the CDU. Nobody wants to do Red-Red-Green except for the Left.

Does Germany do minority government?

In theory they could, but it's never been done before on the Federal Level, only on state level. It's not like in Scandinavia where it's basicly the norm.