2013 Elections in Germany

[Vosem]

Interesting -- I hadn't really followed the 2012 thread, but considering the federal election will be taking place (and a desire to rectify my general lack of knowledge about German politics), I'll be watching this one much more closely.

Not much to add besides that at the moment, however...

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

Merkel is personally popular, but that's it. The government is pretty strongly disliked.

I see.

The FDP has made a fool of themselves for the last 4 years and is perceived to be a corrupt and incompetent group entirely driven by special interests. (See hotel tax affair)

Neither Wikipedia nor Google have helped -- could you provide a link?

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

[Vosem]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

Thanks for the link -- that's quite dissuasive for possible FDP voters who aren't very wealthy...

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

What makes the FDP unpopular is not so much their tax cut agenda but the fact that they were not able to push it trough (not even the slightest bit of it), despite being part of the government for almost four years now.

Rather like the Lib-Dems? I see how it is.

[Vosem]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-49 Black with no majority.

[Vosem]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-39 absolute Black majority.

How do you figure? CDU is down 42-49.

I'm really doing poorly today...somehow I thought Grüne were at 5 instead of 15...

[Vosem]

I read about AfD on Wikipedia -- it seems like their big schtick is being anti-Euro, but that otherwise their positions align nicely with the CDU. Could CDU/CSU/FDP/AFD be a potential coalition? The YouGov poll shows this would be a very narrow but still viable majority (48-47).

[Vosem]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

FDP 45%
CDU/CSU 31%
The Greens 21%
SPD 21%
The Left 17%

Skewed down by my answering 'ich bin unsicher' to maybe 1/3 of the questions where I didn't have the foggiest clue what they were asking. But the basic order is consistent with what I thought.

[Vosem]

Final Prediction:
CDU/CSU 39.4
SPD 27.0
Gruene 9.0
Linke 8.9
FDP 5.5
AfD 4.4
Piraten 2.0
Sonstige 3.8

CDU/CSU/FDP 44.9
SPD/Gruene/Linke 44.9

My prediction is that whether the CDU/CSU/FDP has gotten a majority or not will be unclear for some time after the election, but that ultimately Merkel will be forced back into a Grand Coalition (although one where she is more decisively the senior partner than in 2005-2009).

[Vosem]

(sun sets in East, rises in West, etc)

Are you sure about that?

[Vosem]

(sun sets in East, rises in West, etc)

Are you sure about that?

In East Frisia it does.

Ah, of course.

[Vosem]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

Pretty sure that comes out to a 311-310 C(letter)U majority. Assuming Steinbrueck sticks to his promise not to form a Coalition if the C(letter)U has a majority, and an agreement can't be reached with a very special wavelength, the C(letter)U will be having to rely on a 1-seat majority to elect Merkel in the secret ballot discussed upthread.

[Vosem]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

Pretty sure that comes out to a 311-310 C(letter)U majority.

Obviously impossible given the election law - the seat distribution is proportional, which these figures are not.

And, well, three of four of his figures are the same figures I found at a rather reliable (but also nonoffical place) and the fourth one there fits the reality, so...

Yeah, it's actually SPD 192 (and you made that point upthread, I've just noticed). A Grand, Tyrian coalition it is.

[Vosem]

These cordon sanitaire policies usually last exactly as long as all the major parties are willing to maintain them and then die out once the line is broken even slightly

The line was broken slightly in 2009, when a Red-Red coalition (SPD-Linke) was formed for the first time at the state level in Brandenburg (though I believe to this day the Greens have never been in a government with Die Linke). Still, there's a difference between the East, where Linke is seen as a 'legitimate' left-wing party, and the West, where they're seen as unacceptable extremists, so what works at the state level in the East may not work at a federal level.

[Vosem]

And on another note, is there a good English-language source anywhere for German state elections since 1949? Wikipedia has good articles on ones since 2000, but I can find only very little from before then.

[Vosem]

And on another note, is there a good English-language source anywhere for German state elections since 1949? Wikipedia has good articles on ones since 2000, but I can find only very little from before then.

You mean, descriptions of campaigns etc?

I doubt you'll find a good German-language source.

If you are mainly interested in figures, you find them in this wikipedia article. It is in German, and includes an initial overview on each party's history (e.g. PDS->WASG/PSD-> Die Linke), but afterwards it is lots of tables, election results & seats state by state, that should be self-explaining. Towards the end, you find lists on best & worst results, largest swings, etc, by party, plus various other statistics

Thank you -- this is exactly what I'm looking for, pretty much. I think between Google Translate, my dictionary, and my own infinitesimal prior knowledge I'll be able to comprehend their descriptions.