UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

Swings to the left in Scotland and Northern England and swings to the right in the Midlands and Southern England so far...no sign of that old divide disappearing anytime soon.

[Phony Moderate]

Laura whatshername saying that Labour leadership talks are already underway and that Cooper, Jarvis and Burnham are in the running.

[Phony Moderate]

David Laws out!

[Phony Moderate]

And Galloway is defeated!

Humiliated.

this may well be the last Act of a show well worth-watching.

He's considering the Tower Hamlets Mayoralty...

[Phony Moderate]

Sources say that Miliband will be gone by lunchtime.

[Phony Moderate]

Farron retained his seat; he would be the obvious successor to Clegg.

[Phony Moderate]

Oh yeah, what about Bercow? Not his seat of course, but his Speakership?

[Phony Moderate]

The Greens need to reinstate Lucas now.

[Phony Moderate]

I think I would have felt less depressed, in a weird way, after the 79, 83, 87 and 92 results than I do now.

[Phony Moderate]

Won't be seeing any more coalitions for a few decades methinks.

[Phony Moderate]

The British Polling Council has ordered an enquiry...something which presumably happened in 1970 and 1992 too...

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP did very well in Romford, despite the fact that the Tory MP is a UKIPer in all but name.

[Phony Moderate]

Very amusing results in Liverpool (both General and Local) as usual. Labour even broke 80% in Walton.

[Phony Moderate]

I know it's a bit late for observations, but one thing that surprised me as I watching the results was how efficient the Tory vote was in England (despite the combination of a collapsed Lib Dem vote and substantially higher UKIP vote). Despite Labour being up 3.6% and the Conservatives only up 1.4% in England, it was a Conservative gain of 21 and a Labour gain of 15. I know the conventional wisdom in Canada is that roughly 40% nationwide is majority territory. Is a roughly 41% vote share in England the typical threshold for a Tory Majority (obviously considering they're not going to get their majority elsewhere)?

Yeah, it is comparable to 2001 in that respect, when Labour held most of its super marginals despite a 1.8% swing to the Tories nationally (which, uniformly, would have gained them maybe 15-20 seats).

[Phony Moderate]

All of the major parties, bar the Tories, are currently led by women (either in acting or permanent form).

[Phony Moderate]

So I have to ask. What kind of voter voted Lib Dem in 2010 and Conservative in 2015? I understand the kind who shifted to Labour and the Greens and those who shifted to UKIP but the ones who shifted to the Tories are puzzling me, especially considering they seem to be the largest group.

Small 'l' liberals who are antipathetic to Labour and feel that the Cameron-led Tory Party is liberal enough (which it is) for them.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

Not quite all SNP voters favour independence, not quite all Greens are obsessed with environmental preservation. I suspect they are working-class voters who voted UKIP for their immigration stance and are fairly apathetic or unknowledgeable about the EU issue.

[Phony Moderate]

Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?

The BBC/ITN/Sky Exit Poll data is never realised, sadly.

It is conducted by Mori and NOP, who usually do release it sometime after the election. Here is 2005's for instance: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2252/How-Britain-Voted-in-2005.aspx?view=wide

[Phony Moderate]

Which of the various defeated 'big names' (Balls, McVey, the two Alexanders, Murphy, Laws, Kennedy etc) will attempt a comeback I wonder?

[Phony Moderate]

Lots of ignorant folk have suggested in recent days that the DUP is a 'natural ally' of the Tories. Lol.

[Phony Moderate]

Normal service, it is fair to say, has been resumed in many, many big city seats, with the Labour vote rising back to at least pre-Iraq levels. Only major difference being that UKIP are in the thousands rather than the hundreds/not standing at all.

Oh, and sorry to bring up Liverpool Walton again, but it really should be noted that the Labour vote there was higher than in 1997...maybe in the other Liverpool seats too, but I can't be bothered at the moment. Does the release of those certain 30-year rule documents from a few years ago form part, or most, of the explanation?

[Phony Moderate]

Some of the ordering is different, but Ogmore is almost identical to 2010.

[Phony Moderate]

Something that needs to be asked is: Has FPTP ever had a more epic failure? 1983 is nothing in comparison to this.

[Phony Moderate]

Well it wasn't the Longest Suicide Note in History in Manchester Gorton was it.