MI Governor 2018

[SingingAnalyst]

Gov. Snyder's popularity is in the tank because of the Flint water crisis and the tax on pensions. Who wins in 2018, taking office in Jan. 2019?

[SingingAnalyst]

My guess is Kildee decides to defend his seat (which swung from Obama 61-38 to Clinton 50-46) and Whitmer wins the nomination easily barring a challenge from a celebrity candidate (Michael Moore the first that comes to mind, I doubt he goes for it).

Whitmer wins the GE by a comfortable margin. Big hypothetical, but if she is reelected and maintains strong numbers I suspect she will be discussed as a VP pick as early as 2024 if not a POTUS candidate herself.

I just saw a clip from 2013 where she spoke out against a restrictive abortion ban. She discussed her own rape as her reason why. It was seriously emotional and courageous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiHHg7O6zHM

I agree, that clip might help put her over the top, and even win her support among people who consider themselves pro-life.

[SingingAnalyst]

I preferred Kildee, but Whitmer is a decent candidate. I'm confidant about the Dems' prospects.

I'm confident too. Even if the GOP nominates a decent candidate, which they probably will (Candice Miller and Ruth Johnson are both possible), Clinton Republicans will see a vote for a Dem as a vote against Trump, while Johnson supporters and even some disgrunted Trump supporters will vote Dem for change. (Mark Schauer in 2014 received 44.4% of the vote in Macomb, where voters were already souring on Snyder).

[SingingAnalyst]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.  

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I have the Republicans holding the Michigan Senate since 1984, and the Michigan House 16 of the past 22 years. That is pretty weak on the Democrats' part.

Look over the total votes,  the Democrats do win a majority of the votes regularly.   They're just compacted into urban areas and the districts are drawn to favor Republicans.

Not only that, but much the GOP appeal outstate has to do with standing against the Dem leadership from Detroit. These types of appeals are less resonant with Millennials; once again, this young, politically active generation, dismayed that a state with 2/3 of the world's fresh water supply cannot provide clean water to one of its largest cities, will change the politics of a state.

[SingingAnalyst]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1027620547746824192

Very interesting map, especially in and near Detroit. Very evenly divided 3 ways. Thanedar did indeed win large sections of Detroit, with El-Sayed winning Hamtramck and east Dearborn.

Meanwhile, north of 8 Mile (not shown), Thanedar finished in single digits along the Woodward Corridor south of Pontiac (El-Sayed carried Ferndale; Whitmer won the rest).

[SingingAnalyst]

County map with statewide party vote totals:

I'm surprised Saginaw cast more R than D votes, unless the difference was very tiny.

That looks like a good prediction for the general (except for Saginaw County). If anything, it might overstate Schuette's strength slightly, as I don't think Schuette has a lock on Brian Calley voters.

[SingingAnalyst]

Hats off to Leelanau county, which continued its swing from 2012->2016, and now had more D votes when it went marginally for Trump in 2016.

Interesting. Leelenau stands almost alone in MI as a county that trended D in 2016, as compared with the US as a while.

It, and Livingston County, are the only two counties in which the percentage of people who are "struggling" is less than 30%:

https://poverty.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/55/2017/12/Map-Project-User-Guide.pdf

I'll bet the percentage of college graduates is high in Leelenau. I've visited once.