Greek election - January 25th 2015

[jaichind]

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' conservative New Democracy party is protesting the release of what seems to be voter exit polls before the 7 pm (1700 GMT) close of polling stations.
It calls the publication of the exit polls by internet sites an "unprecedented, lousy action" designed to manipulate voters and asks the Justice Ministry to launch a probe, according to a statement.

This tells me the exit poll is most likely fairly accurate. 

[politicus]

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' conservative New Democracy party is protesting the release of what seems to be voter exit polls before the 7 pm (1700 GMT) close of polling stations.
It calls the publication of the exit polls by internet sites an "unprecedented, lousy action" designed to manipulate voters and asks the Justice Ministry to launch a probe, according to a statement.

This tells me the exit poll is most likely fairly accurate. 

Why? There is no way ND can know if it is accurate or not.

[RogueBeaver]

If it jives with their internals...

[politicus]

If it jives with their internals...

Why should their internals be better then the last polls? It is only two days since the last polls were conducted.

(besides parties in small European countries generally don't do internals)

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll in 10 minutes.

Live streams:

http://www.ertopen.com/tv

http://www.megatv.com/megaekloges2015/default.asp?catid=27270

http://www.alphatv.gr/webtv/live

[jaichind]

SYRIZA TO GET 35.5%-39.5% OF VOTE: EXIT POLL

[Tender Branson]

LOL, the exit poll is basically my prediction.

[Lief 🗽]

Yesssssss

Though Greek exit polls are often garbage.

[jaichind]

NEW DEMOCRACY TO GET 23%-27% OF VOTE, 65-75 SEATS: POLL

[jaichind]

SYRIZA TO GET 35.5%-39.5% OF VOTE, 146-158 SEATS: EXIT POLL

[Lief 🗽]

[politicus]

NEW DEMOCRACY TO GET 23%-27% OF VOTE, 65-75 SEATS: POLL

shhh!

[Tender Branson]

What does "exit poll 75%" mean though ?

75% turnout ?

[Beezer]

G-Pap not in?

[jaichind]

G-Pap not in?

Looks like it.  It seems ANEL did not make it either ?  If so then Syriza will have a majority for sure.

[Tender Branson]

I slightly overestimated ND (27.5% vs. 25% in the exit poll).

My 27.5% for ND was still the best prediction by anyone (you guys all had them above 28% and mostly above 30%) ...

I nailed SYRIZA though and most of the other parties, except Kinima (3% vs. 2.5% in the exit poll).

[jaichind]

Looks like ANEL did make it.  In fact Movement of Democratic Socialists is projected to get 2.2% to 3.2% so they still have a chance.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Greece’s Syriza party is set to win country’s parliamentary elections with 35.5% to 39.5% of the vote vs 23% to 27% for Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy, exit poll for ANT1 TV shows.
Led by Alexis Tsipras, Syriza is projected to get between 146 and 158 seats in Greece’s 300-seat chamber, according to exit poll, possibly enough for an outright majority
Nationalist, anti-immigrant, Golden Dawn party gets 6.4%-8%
To Potami, or River, also gets 6.4% to 8%
Communist Party gets 4.7% to 5.7%
Socialist Pasok party to get 4.2% to 5.2%
Independent Greeks party gets 3.5% to 4.5%
Movement of Democratic Socialists, founded by former PM George Papandreou, to get 2.2% to 3.2%

[politicus]

The exit polls were inaccurate the last three times, so no reason to trust them too much.

[jaichind]

If we go with the medium estimate of the vote shares of all parties in the exit poll then SYRIZA should get around 153 seats.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There have been two exit polls.  The first one by Alco, GPO, MARC, MetroAnalysis and MRB:


And the 2nd one from the Univ. of Macedonia:
SYRIZA 36-39
ND 24-27
Potami 6.5-8.5
XA 6-8
KKE 5-7
PASOK 4-6
ANEL 2.5-4.5
Papandreou 2-3
DIMAR 0.5-1
Others 3-5

[SPQR]

What's the threshold to get in?

[politicus]

What's the threshold to get in?

3

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

doompaul.png
ITSHAPPENING.png

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose we should wait until the votes are counted before we start saying things with any degree of firmness, but this looks pretty clear...