Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Famous Mortimer]

http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_brasileira_de_2014

Most recent poll:

Dilma 39% Silva (formerly Green, now "Sustainability Network) 35%, Aécio Neves (Social Democrats) 12% Eduardo Campos (Brazilian Socialist Party) 4%

[Sec. of State Superique]

It's too early to predict anything but we are going to obviously have a second round at least. In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected, though reelection was created on 97 anyway, but I think that Aécio and Eduardo have lot's of potential to grow.

Also, I'd like to say that this poll that you pointed out is from a polling organization that is not so well known in Brazil. For the purpose of more accurate polling, we should consider Ibope, Datafolha and CNT, those are the best ones!

[Zuza]

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

[Sec. of State Superique]

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

Yes that is true. Even on the state and municipal level this is not common :/

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

[RodPresident]

Brazilian right will vote for who can beat Dilma. There are rumors that Serra will change to PPS (former commies turned right-wing) and support Campos' presidential bid.

[Niemeyerite]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

OK, thats weird, but I suppose the low level of party affiliation accounts for that.

But to rephrase my main question. Does Silva have a chance? Is there any dynamic in which she becomes the anti-Dilma?

[Niemeyerite]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

OK, thats weird, but I suppose the low level of party affiliation accounts for that.

But to rephrase my main question. Does Silva have a chance? Is there any dynamic in which she becomes the anti-Dilma?

I don't think so, she could get to 2nd round, but, IMHO, no way she beats Dilma. Once the campaign begins, Aecio will steal some of her supporters (who are just people who want to kick Dilma and will vote for the "strongest" candidate: that means whomever PSDB puts as candidate) and Eduardo Campos, as a left-winger, will probably get some of her votes, too (maybe he'll also damage Dilma). And PSB is a strong brand now, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Campos got 20% of the vote.

So, I believe Marina will not get anywhere near 35%, I could be wrong, of course, but I think she'll get about 25%, considering her good results in 2010 and that she may be stronger now.

Finally, we have to remember that PV may run Gabeira this time, and he's a big name, so Marina could have worse results now than she had in 2010... But, considering the polls that's not likely. For the moment.

If I had to make a prediction -it's absurd, because things change in one years, politicians make gaffes...-, it'd be something like this:

Dilma 38-43%
Aecio 23-28%
Marina 16-21%
Eduardo 13-18%
Gabeira 4-5%
PSOL 1-2%
Others 1%

I know that's more than 100%, but you get the idea

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The only President who avoided a runoff (twice) was Cardoso, but he was mighty lucky. In 1994 he got basically elected on Itamar's back (who left office with highest approvals any President enjoyed before Lula). In 1998 he was able to secure wide machine support by back-scene manipulation, including convincing the PDMB to deny their nomination to now really pissed off Itamar (the only one who would have a chance to beat him).

AFAIK runoff was not an option before 1990. For example, Kubitschek got elected in 1955 with less than 40%

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

Well, since until 1998 Presidents were unable to run for reelection, that's hardly surprising. There were two running after a break (Alves and Vargas), but these are hardly encouraging examples, the former died before taking office and the latter shot himself, lol.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

[Niemeyerite]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

I meant real Tancredo Neves.

[Niemeyerite]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

I meant real Tancredo Neves.

He's not as dangerous as his grandson, the cocaine man.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Regarding other races I wonder if Fernie will run for reelection or give another try at Emperor of Alagoas.

[RodPresident]

Collor will have the fight for his life against Governor Vilela (PSDB) in senatorial election. I think that running for governorship would be a better path for him.
In Rio, Campos can get support of former governor Garotinho (PR).

[Sec. of State Superique]

Collor will have the fight for his life against Governor Vilela (PSDB) in senatorial election. I think that running for governorship would be a better path for him.
In Rio, Campos can get support of former governor Garotinho (PR).

That would be a shame ! Garotinho is one of the most populist, corrupt and hypocrite politician I've ever seen!

[Sec. of State Superique]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

I wouldn't say that Marina has great chances of being President, though She has some nice ideas. The only to go well in 2014 is creating a coalition of mid-size parties such as PDT, PC do B, PV or at least  the small socialist PSOL.

However, Neves and Campos are likely to pick up those other parties on theirs coalitions. PPS, PP, DEM and PTB are likely to support Neves, PDT, PPS, PMN could support both Campos and Aécio but it depends...

[RodPresident]

And supporting Campos in Rio would backfire badly as he was behind oil royalties take-over.

[Famous Mortimer]

I wouldn't say that Marina has great chances of being President, though She has some nice ideas. The only to go well in 2014 is creating a coalition of mid-size parties such as PDT, PC do B, PV or at least  the small socialist PSOL.

You mean the PCB? I thought the PC do B were very far up the PT's ass and certain to back Dilma.

[RodPresident]

PC do B is very likely to endorse Dilma and supporting her would be vital for Flavio Dino's gubernatorial campaign in Maranhão, even she endorses Sarney's candidate.
Electoral Justice ordered a reapportionment of seats in Chamber. This will affect state legislatures too.
Until 12 congressmen: 3 x congressmen in state legislature (a state with 10 congressmen will have 30 state legislators)
More than 12 congressman: 3 x 12 + (state congressmen - 12). (Bahia have 39 congressmen and 63 state legislators).
Alagoas, Espirito Santo, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul: -1
Paraíba and Piauí: -2
Amazonas and Santa Catarina: +1
Ceará and Minas Gerais: +2
Pará: +4

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Any other possible candidates from the PSDB outside of Aecio The Plastic Man Neves?

They should run Chu-Chu, with Serra in 2018. Imagine that pattern, Serra-ChuChu-Serra-ChuChu-Serra

[Famous Mortimer]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

[Sec. of State Superique]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote