will the US Economy go into recession in 2008?

[© tweed]

will the US Economy go into recession in 2008?

Intrade: 69.0 yes

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think we're already unofficially in one.

[Kevin]

I think we're already unofficially in one.

I would agree with you there the market had pretty poor results today and most likely more is to come plus there is talk that the insurers and lenders themselves may even go bankraupt. 

[ottermax]

I really lack much knowledge in economics, but it seems that the current debt of the American people, and the mortgage crisis are leading to a dismal domino effect. I don't know what solution the government can offer without making things worse. If someone could explain what the government could do in terms I can understand, I would really really appreciate it.

[??????????]

We've been in one since June '07.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year. The people know they don't have much money to spend and thus the economy is going to pay the consiquences. Without money in the economy, it will be like an obese woman without her daily feed of lard filled products. (Dodgy analogy eh ).

BTW: Does anyone know what President Bush's stimulus package consists of? All I know is that he was going to release one but that's all I've heard.

[opebo]

BTW: Does anyone know what President Bush's stimulus package consists of? All I know is that he was going to release one but that's all I've heard.

Yes, its just ideological crap like tax cuts.  Any sensible economist will tell you that the most stimulous is caused by increased unemployment benefits, food stamps, and other payments to the poorest.  Of course it disturbs Bush and his ilk to think that such will ever get anything.

As for the poll question, the US has been in an overall recession as many have said for at least a few months, and of course in terms of the condition of workers for 30 years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW: Does anyone know what President Bush's stimulus package consists of? All I know is that he was going to release one but that's all I've heard.

Basically give back $800 to every individual taxpayer and $1600 to each couple.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's real economics, not ideological economics, if you want to stimulate the economy through tax cuts... give most to people who will actually spend it.

[Person Man]

BTW: Does anyone know what President Bush's stimulus package consists of? All I know is that he was going to release one but that's all I've heard.

Basically give back $800 to every individual taxpayer and $1600 to each couple.

but isn't that money already being spend by the public at large? We need people to MAKE new money, not find new ways to spend it.

[bullmoose88]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year.

Slowdown yes, but the national economy must have two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a receeding, not a slowdown from prior gains) to have a recession.

[Person Man]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year.

Slowdown yes, but the national economy must have two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a receeding, not a slowdown from prior gains) to have a recession.

That's what I say and that is correct....but that definition is generally retroactive, unless of course you have a reccesion, not a slow down for several quarters (more than 2). I, personally think that we will be in a slow down until the 4th quarter and will stay in a reccesion until the 3rd quarter of 2009. We will then have a weak economy for 2 or 3 years and then will have another reccesion or boom by 2011 or 2012.

Now, I wonder what will happen if we only have a slow down (the economy just levels out or recovers)... will this create reccession-proof economy or simply make our bubble bigger...

[bullmoose88]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year.

Slowdown yes, but the national economy must have two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a receeding, not a slowdown from prior gains) to have a recession.

That's what I say and that is correct....but that definition is generally retroactive, unless of course you have a reccesion, not a slow down for several quarters (more than 2). I, personally think that we will be in a slow down until the 4th quarter and will stay in a reccesion until the 3rd quarter of 2009. We will then have a weak economy for 2 or 3 years and then will have another reccesion or boom by 2011 or 2012.

Now, I wonder what will happen if we only have a slow down (the economy just levels out or recovers)... will this create reccession-proof economy or simply make our bubble bigger...

Recession proof?  Thats probably impossible.

You will always get a relative bust after a relative boom...the main goal is two fold, to make the relative bust not as bad as the relative boom was good, and to make the bust shorter in time than the boom...thus...over time, the economy has strong long term growth.

In a sense, busts aren't horrible because they force policy makers and economic players to revaluate the economy and fix things that don't work well.

[Person Man]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year.

Slowdown yes, but the national economy must have two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a receeding, not a slowdown from prior gains) to have a recession.

That's what I say and that is correct....but that definition is generally retroactive, unless of course you have a reccesion, not a slow down for several quarters (more than 2). I, personally think that we will be in a slow down until the 4th quarter and will stay in a reccesion until the 3rd quarter of 2009. We will then have a weak economy for 2 or 3 years and then will have another reccesion or boom by 2011 or 2012.

Now, I wonder what will happen if we only have a slow down (the economy just levels out or recovers)... will this create reccession-proof economy or simply make our bubble bigger...

Recession proof?  Thats probably impossible.

You will always get a relative bust after a relative boom...the main goal is two fold, to make the relative bust not as bad as the relative boom was good, and to make the bust shorter in time than the boom...thus...over time, the economy has strong long term growth.

In a sense, busts aren't horrible because they force policy makers and economic players to revaluate the economy and fix things that don't work well.

I understand that. The question is, do you think this current boom was worth it?

[muon2]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.

[Person Man]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.

That makes sense.

[opebo]

The United States is already in a recession and has been since late last year in my personal opinion. However it will get even worse this year.

Slowdown yes, but the national economy must have two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a receeding, not a slowdown from prior gains) to have a recession.

That's what I say and that is correct....but that definition is generally retroactive, unless of course you have a reccesion, not a slow down for several quarters (more than 2). I, personally think that we will be in a slow down until the 4th quarter and will stay in a reccesion until the 3rd quarter of 2009. We will then have a weak economy for 2 or 3 years and then will have another reccesion or boom by 2011 or 2012.

Now, I wonder what will happen if we only have a slow down (the economy just levels out or recovers)... will this create reccession-proof economy or simply make our bubble bigger...

Recession proof?  Thats probably impossible.

You will always get a relative bust after a relative boom...the main goal is two fold, to make the relative bust not as bad as the relative boom was good, and to make the bust shorter in time than the boom...thus...over time, the economy has strong long term growth.

In a sense, busts aren't horrible because they force policy makers and economic players to revaluate the economy and fix things that don't work well.

Busts aren't horrible if you're an owner, Bullmoose - you simply loose a little, or make a little less, or put off 'playing the game' for a bit.  For the working class of course the booms merely mean they have a job, and can survive.  For these the busts can mean something rather frightful - no job.  They then face dire straights immediately, up to and including homelessness.

[Person Man]

It's great to learn from mistakes, but you should really try to avoid them in the first place. Right, opebo?

[opebo]

It's great to learn from mistakes, but you should really try to avoid them in the first place. Right, opebo?

Well, to all appearances, government economic policy is intended to create booms and busts, so perhaps they really don't consider this to be a mistake.

[Person Man]

It is for us.

[Terrabus]

Economists have predicted 8 of the past 3 recessions. 

Just how much money can the FED pump into the markets to inflate them and keep inflation from go to warp speed?

We'll find out, won't we?

[Michael Z]

Judging by today's headlines, it's looking more than likely.

[Storebought]

I don't know so much about the economy at large, but I do know that stocks have started a bear market in late June or so. Small caps are already down over 20% since then.

[J. J.]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.

Concur.

[David S]

Economists have predicted 8 of the past 3 recessions. 

8 out of 3. How does that work?