will the US Economy go into recession in 2008?

[Person Man]

Sarcasism or really trying to push a point.

[Sam Spade]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.

Concur.

Also concur.

[??????????]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.

Concur.

Also concur.

If you work in the sales industry, whether in food (like me) or retail, you can tell that the economy has been long in slow down. The media is just NOW saying something about it. I don't need an economic report to tell me the picture that's been painted.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Undoubtably. The Republicans will find a way to blame the Democrats for it, of course. If a Democrat is elected this year, and they actually try to fix any of the problems wrong with this country, they'll end up as the next Jimmy Carter, bad approval ratings and losing the next election.

[Person Man]

Undoubtably. The Republicans will find a way to blame the Democrats for it, of course. If a Democrat is elected this year, and they actually try to fix any of the problems wrong with this country, they'll end up as the next Jimmy Carter, bad approval ratings and losing the next election.

...hmmm... if a republican get reelected, we could have another reccesion by the end of his term as the market cycle shortens.

[Wakie]

The economy has been grinding down pretty much throughout the Bush years.  For my $0.02 I think it is caused by a number of factors.  What people get for what they are paid has dropped dramatically.

How much have your earnings gone up over the last 5 years?  If you had a "regular" job 5 years ago I'd say not that much.

Whereas look at the increases in "necessity" costs.

Gasoline has skyrocketed 220% higher (driving up transportation costs).
The cost of housing skyrocketed with the housing bubble.
Healthcare costs are up 34% due to aging/retiring baby boomers seeking more medical care, fewer of them acting as providers, and fewer of them paying into the insurance systems.
Increases in food prices have actually outpaced increases in wages.

[opebo]

Real earnings have had to come down quite a bit for most people, Wakie, in order to redistribute that income to the top 1%.

[Person Man]

This could actually suck quite a bit... tons of credit and a lack of raises do this type of thing.

[opebo]

This could actually suck quite a bit... tons of credit and a lack of raises do this type of thing.

Standard poor (right-wing) economic policy, easily solved by unionization and income redistribution.

[Person Man]

I see that people are still making money. It appears that the global bubble will be enough to buy off the housing crash...for now.

Another question could be that if the economy stabilizes in 2007, will this create another, larger bubble? If I recall correctly, could it be that we are heading into a "roaring 20s" situation, where we are basically staving off one bubble with another until it falls down like a house of cards or do you think we have grown into an impossible era of perpetual growth based around virtually unlimited computing power and human resources?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

if the Fed cuts another 50 basis points this week they could really get out ahead of the curve, and barring any geopolitical shocks, I think we will avoid recession.

[Person Man]

Will it create another bubble if we avoid reccesion?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Will it create another bubble if we avoid reccesion?

free markets ALWAYS create bubbles of one sort or another

[Person Man]

I mean, what could be the consequences of un-hinging the business cycle?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I mean, what could be the consequences of un-hinging the business cycle?

huh?

[Person Man]

I mean, wouldn't the impending reccesion be milder if we slowed down the economy slowly through the housing bust so the impending global bubble be deflated through a weak U.S. economy? ...now if the economy goes back to a period of moderate growth, the global bubble could eventually erupt violently.  Then again, maybe we are at the end of history. The boom in China has yet to still penetrate a fraction of their society....perhaps when you are dealing with a global economy of 4 billion people, instead of 700 million, booms can last indefinately.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I mean, wouldn't the impending reccesion be milder if we slowed down the economy slowly through the housing bust so the impending global bubble be deflated through a weak U.S. economy? ...now if the economy goes back to a period of moderate growth, the global bubble could eventually erupt violently.  Then again, maybe we are at the end of history. The boom in China has yet to still penetrate a fraction of their society....perhaps when you are dealing with a global economy of 4 billion people, instead of 700 million, booms can last indefinately.

what is this impending global bubble you speak of? 

[Person Man]

The fact that many economists believe that China, India, Turkey, Iran and many middle-HDI economies are growing at ~10% per annum(doubles its GDP every 7 years) and that they cannot do so for a long time.