Official US 2010 Census Results

[Kevinstat]

I'm not sure if anyone here has pointed it out yet, but if the major fractions method (which was used after the 1910 and 1930 censuses) was still used today, Rhode Island would lose it's second U.S. House seat and North Carolina would gain a 14th U.S. House seat.

[Kevinstat]

Hmm? What is the major fractions method? I did a few calculations this morning, actually, though with rounded figures because I didn't have access to the internet, and I got Hare-Niemeyer and the US method agreeing this year. Sainte-Lague shifts two seats to larger states; I forget which but Rhode Island wasn't one IIRC. I also did D'Hondt (single seat not just for RI but for ME and NH as well... HI narrowly double-member. About ten or so seat transfers. Oh, and you have to amend it to include an exception so every state gets at least one seat), and the method used by Turkey (one seat per state automatic, remaining seats distributed by D'Hondt with that one seat not taken into account, which in Turkey has the nice effect of making every province/constitutency at least double-member. Similar number of seat transfers but in the other direction this time. SD the smallest double-member state).

Differences are relative to Huntington Hill

Jefferson's method

+ CA(2), IL, NJ, NY, NC, OH, TX
- ME, MN, NE, NH, RI, SC, WA, WV

Adams' method

+ DE, ID, IA, LA, MO, MT, OK, OR, SD
- CA(3), FL, GA, NY, PA, TX(2)

Webster's method

+ NC
- RI

Dean's method

+ MT
- CA

One to add:

Hamilton's method (a.k.a. largest remainders with the Hare Quota (1 Hare Quota = total votes (or total apportionment population here)/total number of seats) a.k.a. Hare-Niemeyer

No difference (from Huntington-Hill a.k.a. the method of equal proportions)

Jefferson's method is also known as the method of greatest divisiors or (typically as a seat allocation method in proportional representation systems) the d'Hondt method.

Adams' method is also known as the method of smallest divisors.

Webster's method is also known as the method of major fractions or (typically as a seat allocation method in proportional representation systems) the Sainte-Lagüe method.

Dean's method is also known as the method of the harmonic mean.

[Kevinstat]

I seem to dimly recall they went in alphabetical order last time.

In the case of Louisiana and Mississippi, the legislature is elected for (coincident) 4-year terms, so if they don't redistrict now, the new boundaries would not go into effect until 2015, more than half way through the census decade.

The Mississippi Constitution (Article 13, Section 254) only mandates Legislative redistricting "in the second year following the 1980 decennial census and every ten (10) years thereafter," but allows it "at any other time, by joint resolution, by majority vote of all members of each house."  I'm not sure if that means that the Legislature will have to re-adopt the plan adopted this year (assuming they adopt one as seems to be expected - it only didn't happen in 1991 because of a lawsuit alleging VRA violations and Department of Justice non-preclearance, and when a plan was enacted in 1992 a federal district court commuted the existing Legislative terms and ordered elections for a three-year term coinciding with the 1992 Presidential Election; more info in the first two case summaries here) in 2012 (or make changes to that plan if they so desire), or if that particular wording of Mississippi's constitution (the constitutional amendment establishing this schedule was adopted in 1979, and in the 1980s the first non-special Legislative elections would have been in 1983) is interpreted to include years ending in 1, at least in those decades when the Legislature is up for election in years ending in 1.

[Kevinstat]

Looks like Iowa won't be able to draw a congressional district entirely in the 3x3 block of counties centered on Polk County (Des Moines), unless the tradition (and seeming state requirement) of not splitting counties is broken.  The closest you can get without going outside of the "Des Moines 9" or splitting a county is the Des Moines 9 minus Boone County (the second smallest county in the group) which is 2,568.75 people short of the ideal Iowa congressional district population (most people round the ideal district population to the nearest integer, but I'm not most people even though I don't support chopping people into fractional portions).  That's only 0.34% of the ideal district population, but probably too much to pass muster for a congressional district.  The Des Moines 9 minus Madison County (the smallest county in the group) would be 8,058.25 people (1.06%) too large.  

[Kevinstat]

Next week: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and Tennessee.

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRG!

Yeah, and Montana won't do Legislative redistricting until after the 2012 elections, and has only one congressional district.  Interestingly enough, it would do congressional redistricting before the 2012 elections if it had more than one district.  (I've read it didn't redraw its congressional districts after the 1980 census until after the 1982 elections, but there was a constitutional amendment moving the congressional redistricting to before the '2' year elections in 1984, only to see the state drop to one congressional district in the next apportionment and not seeming likely to regain its second district anytime soon, making the change in the timing of congressional redistricting moot.  I don't think Montana would have been allowed to keep it's second district until 1994 on the grounds that it wasn't time for them to redistrict yet - yeah I know for a fact that they wouldn't have but it's funny to think about).

[Kevinstat]

Sorry, New York and Maine - you're dead last, on equal footing with D.C. and Puerto Rico.

I don't mind Maine being one of the last two states since we won't have to draw any districts until 2013 (even for municipal election districts (what most people would call "wards") in Maine's municipalities which have them redistricting isn't required until after the legislative districts are drawn), although I think Montana (which was released last week, on Tuesday I think), not New York, should have been the other state in the last two.  Their Legislative redistricting won't go into effect until 2014, although I'm not sure about local elections and it's apportionment commission is already meeting (Maine's won't be named until December 2012 at the earliest).