Israel general discussion

[MalaspinaGold]

New Smith/Globes Poll: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/10/31/smithglobes-poll-likud-24-bayit-yehudi-15-labor-14-yisrael-beitenu-10-yesh-atidkachlon-9-each/
Likud- 24
Habayit Hayehudi- 15
Labor- 14
Yisrael Beitenu- 10
Yesh Atid- 9
Kachlon- 9
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 8
Shas- 7
Hadash- 5
Hatnuah- 4
Raam Taal- 4
Balad- 3

Any guess on if/when Kachlon makes the jump?

[MalaspinaGold]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

[MalaspinaGold]

I guess I'm asking the question. Since the Likud-Beitenu packed dissolved, if he were to get a large surge of support (a la Yesh Atid), and he got the largest number of seats (unlikely, but possible), would he want to ally with Labor or with Likud/YB/HH?

[MalaspinaGold]

Yeah, I was thinking Shas/UTJ might join a coalition based on left-wing economics. Not sure about Yesh Atid (or if they're even still around).

[MalaspinaGold]

New poll from NRG:
Likud: 21
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 15
Yesh Atid: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kahlon: 7
Hatnuah: 5
Hadash: 5
Raam-Taal: 4

[MalaspinaGold]

Yeah I agree he isn't left wing on economics (neither was Lapid) but probably will try to appeal to that crowd by saying reform and cell phones over and over again.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, Environment Minister Amir Peretz (Hatnuah) announces he's resigning, but will stay in the party and the government. Bibi effectively says "good riddance."
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.625442
Also, Science Minister Yaakov Peri (Yesh Atid) says Yesh Atid may have to "reevaluate" their position within the Knesset.

Likud Primaries are scheduled for December 25. Is this a sign of elections coming up?

[MalaspinaGold]

You don't think with all hell breaking loose in Jerusalem they might kick Bibi out for someone even more far right?

Also, considering the bad blood between Dannon and Bibi, I assume the former endorses Feiglin if he doesn't go for it himself?

[MalaspinaGold]

Wow, was I wrong, Dannon is trying for leadership.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.625791

What major differences, if any, are there between Dannon and Feiglin anyway? I get the feeling that Dannon is more secularist, while Feiglin is basically Bayit Yehudi's outpost in Likud. Anything else?

[MalaspinaGold]

Ah, okay thanks.

[MalaspinaGold]

New Knesset Channel poll:
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kachlon: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 4

So it seems that (thus far) the happenings in Jerusalem have not affected the electoral landscape at all.

One more thing: Since Bibi tends to underperform his polls, is it a legitimate possibility that we could see Bayit Yehudi with the largest faction? If so, what happens?

[MalaspinaGold]

Do both Shas and UTJ get invited in, or just Shas? Shas gets them to just 61-62 seats; no way Bibi forms a government that small.

 Does Netanyahu invite in Labor?

Yes.

More importantly, what does labor say?

[MalaspinaGold]

Is there a reason Lieberman and Kachlon would not back Bennett?

Also, what is your take on the likelihood of a Bennett victory?

[MalaspinaGold]

Maagor Mochot Poll:

Likud: 25
Bayit Yehudi: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 7
Kachlon: 6
Hadash: 4
Hatnuah: 3
Raam Taal: 3
Balad: 3

Why is there such a difference between Maagor and Panels? Lieberman's result here is double what he's gotten in the last few Panels polls. Which of them is more accurate?

[MalaspinaGold]

Apparently both Netanyahu and the center-left are trying to court the haredim to join a coalition with them.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.626814

Thing is, I don't think Netanyahu has the mandates to do this. Presumably if he sacks Lapid, Livni also leaves, and Likud, Beitenu, JH, Shas, and UTJ combined only have 61 seats. I can't see that working for Bibi, and Lieberman's animosity to the haredim has also grown.

I also don't see a Center-Left-Haredi coalition being any more viable than a Center-Left-Lieberman coalition.

Anyways it seems elections are a foregone conclusion:

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[MalaspinaGold]

New Poll (Midgam/Channel 10)
Likud- 22
Bayit Yehudi- 17
Yesh Atid- 14
Labor- 13
Yisrael Beiteinu- 9
Kachlon- 9
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 7
Shas- 6
Hatnuah- 4
Arab Parties- 11

[MalaspinaGold]

Bibi invites everyone through Meretz to join his coalition.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.627238

[MalaspinaGold]

One of the big things is that Lapid wants to institute a tax on medical vacations by foreigners. It's opposed by Lieberman because a lot of the foreigners who come to Israel for medical treatment are Russian, plus there's a major hospital they're planning to be built in Lieberman-favorable Ashdod.

There's also the VAT exemption for first time home buyers Lapid is trying to push through, and which is getting stalled by Bibi. Also an attempt to establish a little bit of transparency in the JNF.

[MalaspinaGold]

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.

If Hamas start launching rockets again, they're done; Israel will go full invasion of Gaza.

I don't think this directly leads to rocket fire from Gaza. Unlike with the kidnappings, we a) know who did it and b) know they were lone wolves. There won't be any rounding up West Bank Hamas Operatives (unless Bibi goes full on insane)

hnv1, how much do you think this hurts the left?

[MalaspinaGold]

So is Labor basically irrecoverable at this point?

Also, do you know if/where I could find a list of all Meretz officeholders at the local level in Israel? I was just curious in possibly making a map of it.

[MalaspinaGold]

Considering the police just recommended that he stand trial 2 months ago, I don't think he's going anywhere/

[MalaspinaGold]

It's more Bibi trying to score points with the right than anything.
The security establishment has told him this is a dumb idea.

EDIT: New poll! (Knesset Channel)
20 Likud
19 Bayit Yehudi
13 Yesh Atid
13 Labor
9 Kachlon
8 Yisrael Beitenu
8 Meretz
8 UTJ
7 Shas
7 Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
4 Movement
4 Hadash

Labor at 13 (!) and 1 madate between Likud and Bennett(!!!)

[MalaspinaGold]

No, that's Bennett. Messianism does bad things to a person's brain.

[MalaspinaGold]

This is Geocartography, the Israeli Zogby, so take with a couple kilograms of salt.
27  Likud
19 Bayit Yehudi
17 Yisrael Beitenu
10 Labor
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
8 Kachlon Party
6 Yesh Atid
5 Shas
5 Meretz
5 Green Leaf
10 Arab Parties

At least I'm taking it with a couple kilograms of salt- otherwise the right wing would be sitting at 84 seats right now.

[MalaspinaGold]

New poll! (From TRI)
Likud-27
Jewish Home-17
Labor-12
Yesh Atid-10
Shas-10
Yisrael Beiteinu- 8
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 8
Kachlon- 6
Hatnuah- 3
Arab Parties- 11

I don't see Likud that high or Labor that low, but everything else looks plausible