I'm not sure if I've asked this before, but why is Washington's state legislature so close when overall the state is pretty heavily Democratic in other races, particularly statewide? Democrats have lost seats in the State House in every election since 2008, which is just something I find a bit odd given how Democratic the state is overall and their relatively large turnout elections. Democrats only have a 1-seat majority now and if they don't buck the current 8-year trend, they'll effectively lose control of the State House and thus the entire legislature.
I know little about WA politics, but my guess would be it's in a similar situation to that of the New York Senate: conservative rural areas are overrepresented in the legislature and urban areas are underrepresented. Maybe one of our WA posters can enlighten us.
Toss-up - Connecticut Senate
I don't think so, Tim.
Yeah, and CT House as only Lean D? Democrats will likely pick up seats in both in a Presidential year.
They're probably banking on Malloy's ridiculously low approval numbers. But even then, the popularity of a sitting governor has minimal impact on legislative seats.
Yeah, in a Presidential year, it won't matter a bit. The Presidential race will drive all downballot.races.
I would argue that the GOP will take the Washington State House this cycle because of the presidential race. Two Lean R seats are open that the Democrats are defending. And with the GOP essentially keeping all their tough seat incumbents in the election they are likely to keep their 48 seats at least.
The State Senate the GOP is mainly playing defense, but with most of the GOP incumbents that are in tough districts staying in the Democrats are going to have a tough time taking the seats. Especially since these candidates already won with Obama on the ballot. With an open presidential election with plenty of disarray they all can easily win re-election.
In PA although the legislature may start to trend Democratic soon it will inch towards the GOP a little bit more. A 32-18 Senate majority is likely since Wonaziak and his R+20 seat is going to receive a ton of attention on the GOP side to pad its rather large majority already. Also I question how the Democrats can go on offense here when the GOP itself is able to not only go on the offensive but have a plan to achieve super-majority status in the Senate.
