EU elections predictions!

[Umengus]

13 juny, it's election for the european parliament in the 25 countries of Europe (its a very big election!)

wich party will win and in which country? please, give me your predictions!

-France: left before right before extreme right before extreme left
-Belgium: socialist before right and center before extreme right before green
-UK: Conservative before labour before libs
-Spain: PSOE before PP before the rest
-Germany: right before left
-Italy: Left before right
-Sweden: left before right
-Denmark: left before right
-Holland: left before right
-Austria: left before right
-luxembourg: I don't know
-Ireland: right before left
-Portugal: left before right but I don'k know very well the situation in this country.
-Finland: left before right
-Greece: left before right (or equality)

For the new members of the EU, I don't know

[Umengus]

The first polls for European elections have been presented for France!

www.bva.fr

PPE UDF UMP 28
PSE PS           24
GUE LO LC       5
GR                    7
XR                    9
OTHERS           5

this is as if the country elected as whole.
I cannot see the effect of regions at this point.

Observe that commies proper are beyond the threshold

It's a stranger poll...

look at:

-First poll

BVA     (1 april I think) april

extreme left: 5%

communist: 4%
socialist party: 28%
Green: 8%

CPNT: 2%

UDF: 12%
UMP:23%
De villiers, right: 6%

"extreme right": 12%



-Second poll

Ipsos 2 and 3 april

extreme left: 3%

communist: 4%
green: 8%
PS: 32%

CPNT: 2%

UDF: 12%
UMP: 22%
devilliers: 4%

"extreme right": 12%

[Umengus]

Thanks freek!

I'm sad to see the party of Pim fortuyn very bad... He was a good thing for the democracy... But I'm happy to see CDA very bad and upset to see liberal very hight. A win for left it's a good thing.

[Umengus]

EU election in Belgium in 1999 (25 seats)


VLD (liberal NL)  13,61% 3 seats  
PRL-FDF (liberal FR) 10,15 3  
CVP (social-catholics NL) 13,49 3  
PSC (social catholics FR) 5,16 2  
PS  (Socialist FR) 9,65 3  
SP  (Socialist NL) 8,84 2  
Vlaams Blok (extreme right NL) 9,39 2  
Ecolo (Green FR) 8,54 3
Agalev (Green NL) 7,46 2  
Volksunie (nationalist NL)  7,57 2
FN (Extreme right FR) 1,52 0

Predictions for 2004 (24 seats)
(13 for NL and 11 for FR)


VLD: 1 or 2
MR: 3
CVP+ NVA (ex-VU): 4 or 5
PSC: 2
PS: 4 or 5
SP+ Spirit (ex-VU): 3
ECOLO: 1 or 2
Agalev: 0 or 1
VB: 3
FN: 0 or 1



A good link for elections (EU, national,...) in each countries (it's in french but it's easy to use)
http://www.ulb.ac.be/soco/cevipol/documentation/documentation-elections.htm

[Umengus]

Your predictions are strange since
http://www.elections2004.eu.int/ep-election/sites/fi/
FR 9
DE 1
NL 14

this would mean that only 1 seat for VLD sounds
highly unlikely
their support in polls has been at least 15 % which
means at least  2 seats, does it
the voter apathy should hurt anybody in Belgium

so

  NL    FR      DE     BE   99
P 5     1+1     1      7  (+2)
S 3      4                7   (+2)
X 3                        3    (+1)
L 2       2                2    (- 3)
G 1      1                 2   (-5)

huge drop for greens,
actually the destiny of greens in elections
depend their succes in Germany and UK
Dutch, Finns and Swedes greens
will loose also and new coutries are not green
strongholds.

There is a problem with the number of seats and the constituencies. You are right I think but they wanted reform the system with another way and consequently it's not clear but ok you are right. I agree with your predictions behalve for MR and CDH: I say one for P in FR  and 3 for L in FR (and 2+2=4, not 2;) )

[Umengus]

Poll in France

BVA 2-3 june

List/results/dynamics (with recent polls)

extreme left: 4% (=)
extreme left bis: 2% (+)
Comunist: 4% (=)
socialist: 26% (-)
green: 8,5% (=)
CPNT (rural): 2,5% (-)
UDF (centrist): 11% (+)
UMP: 16,5% (- )
Souverainist (De Villiers): 7% (+)
"extreme right": 11% (=)

Sunday, UMP (Chirac, Raffarin, Sarkozy,...) could be in a very badly situation, as in 1999. UDF in front of UMP? not far for me...


A poll of CSA (3-4 june and abstention: 49%) says exactly the same.


Polls in Spain (54 seats):

list/results/EPM
PSOE: between 42,6% and 46,7% (24-27 rep)
PPE: between 37,2 and 38,4% (21 -23 rep)

The rest for communist and nationalist

Turnout: between 55 and 60%

[Umengus]

And I have cast my vote. . CU/SGP it is.

The latest poll, from last night:

CDA 8
PvdA 8
VVD 5
GL 2
SP 2
CU/SGP 2
D66 & Other parties 0 (however one or two of them might have a chance)

and in % of popular votes?

[Umengus]

(Inofficial) Results from the Netherlands:

CDA 24,5% (7 seats)
PvdA 23,6 (7 seats
VVD 13,1 (4 seats)
GL 7,4 (2 seats)
CU/SGP 5,9 (2 seats)
D66 4,2 (1 seat)
SP 7,0 (2 seats)
Eur. Transp. 7,3 (2 seats)
LPF 2,6 (0 Seats)
Other 4,4 (0 Seats)

Turnout: around 39%

please, can you give me evolution/1999?

[Umengus]

Yay! Europa Transparent got in!

Good for van Buitenen.

Now, the latest poll from Sweden:

SAP: 32.7%, 7 seats (+1)

M:     22.3%, 4 seats (-1)

V:     11.1%, 2 seats (-1)

FP:   10.1%, 2 seats (-1)

MP:    8.5%, 2 seats (0)

JL:      5.2%, 1 seat (+1)

C:       4.7%, 1 seat (0)

KD:     3.9%, 0 seats (-2)

Finally a poll that makes some sense! I'm gonna post a new one at midnight, when it comes out, but since SIFO, who conducted this one, is the only reliable institute, I'll go with them. June List is the only party with a clear positive trend, and I expect them to make further gains in the final days. KD is dead and I think C might well lose their footing as well. I certainly hope they do. SAP is gonna get hurt badly by turnout. I think they'll lose a seat and either M or JL will get that seat. I don't expect MP, FP or V to get anything but 2 seats. They're not going anywhere, IMHO.

Can you give signification (left, center, right,...) of SAP, V,... thanks! Thanks all for your participation! I'm happy to be on this forum!

[Umengus]

Belgium

National level

CD&V (conservative but center for economy NL): 17,4% (+4)
Vlaams Block (extreme right NL): 14,3% (+4)
VLD (liberal NL)): 13,6% (= but it's a very bad)
PS (socialist FR): 13,5% (+4)
SP (socialist NL): 11% (+0,1 but it's bad too)
MR (liberal FR): 10,4% (+0,4)
cdh (center NL): 5,7% (+0,7)
Groen (Green NL) 4,9% (bad)
Ecolo (Green FR): 3,7% (-5 very very very bad)

Sieges
CD&V: 4 (+1)
Vlaams Blok: 3 (+1)
VLD: 3
PS: 4 (+1)
SP: 3
MR: 3
cdH: 2
Groen: 1 (-1)
Ecolo: 1 (-2)


Regional elections: 3 area: FR, NL and Brussel

In FR, great victory of socialists (and great failure for greens). In Brussel, socialist is first party in front of MR. ANd in NL it's catastrophic: extreme right is second party (with +8!), after CD&V. VLD, party of PM, has a very bad result, as socialist.