EU elections predictions!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

13 juny, it's election for the european parliament in the 25 countries of Europe (its a very big election!)

Try telling that to people here...

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O.K

-France: Moderate Left
-Belgium: Socialists
-UK: No one will bother to vote
-Spain: Either PSOE or PP
-Germany: CDU-CSU
-Italy: Per Ulivo
-Sweden: SAP
-Denmark: dunno
-Holland: PvDA
-Austria: SPO
-Luxembourg: Pass
-Ireland: Fianna Fial
-Portugal: Not a clue
-Finland: SDP
-Greece: Dunno

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as the UK is concerned, I envisage Lib Dem- and Tory gains, and big losses for Labour.

Unfortunately I can also see extremist parties capitalising on what's bound to be a pathetically low turn-out.

Labour won't suffer big losses as due to the pathetically low turnout in 1999, they don't have a lot of vunerable MEP's...

Tragically I *can* see the BNP or those Galloway nuts winning a seat...

STUPID PROPORTIONAL MISREPRESENTATION*

*Vote Bell

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Finnish politics *is* a little weird sometimes... I remember reading that at some point in the '50's a government fell over butter prices.

Predicting the U.K results is futile... turnout will be insanely low turnout* (only 17% of us are definately going to vote in the Euro elections...)

*I blame PR

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, the number of UK seats should be reduced accordingly.

Probably... won't happen though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

proportional representation or public relations? lol, which do you mean Al, which DO you mean?

Proportional Representation

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a simple reason why UK turnout is so low at euro elections. The UK is not part of Europe.

We're half in half out...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't vote for them, but I kind of like D66... the party with the most insanely volatile electoral support!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think it's possible to correctly predict the results of the European elections... very few people will actuallu bother to vote...
In the U.K the Scottish Greenies are probably not big enough to win a seat and the due to the reduction of the number of seats the UK gets, the London Greenies will probably lose theirs.
---
I'm convinced that the way the elections to the EU parliament are done are wrong. A method based on the US Senate would work much better, would boost turnout, and would make MEP's representatives of The People not party lists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

True.
To be honest I can't name any of my MEP's...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A poll for the E.U elections in the U.K:

Con: 28%
Lab: 27%
LD: 18%
UKIP: 14%
Grn: 6%
BNP: 3%
Nats: 2%
Other: 2%
YouGov

Please note that YouGov is probably the worst polling company... ever. Take everything they say with about 20 salt mines...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Geesus, UKIP 14%??? More salt please!!!

Did you know that YouGov do their "polls" over the internet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

I'd describe them as ultra-nationalists...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Among those most likely to vote, UKIP beat LD.

I know but I couldn't find the numbers... not that there's any reason to bother... YouGov is a truely appalling firm...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I seriously doubt UKIP would pull ahead of LD - surely LD has a far more advanced organization.  It's kind of like Nader polling 6% but only getting 2% at the polls.

That having been said, even a crappy polling company finding that they get 18% of the most likely voters does say something.... clearly there is a lot of anti-EU (probably more anti-Euro) sentiment growing in the UK.

That and the insanely low turnout expected (most pundits say *20%*)...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP is basically a protest vote party... they get votes from two sorts of people:

The U.K version of "Reagan Democrats"
The "Blue Rinse Brigade"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I like the Newfies avatar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

I have to say that the UKIP puzzles me. I can see that they are in the EDD like Junibevægelsen but it doesn't sound like they have the same "globalist" outlook as JB. Who are they??? I have a feeling that they look a lot like our Dansk Folkeparti (Danish Peoples Party (UEN)) aka rightwing madmen (and women) who talks about losing our national charateristics, EU is nothing but a lot of corrupt Italians and Poles that are going to steal our jobs ect

They are basically the U.K version of the Dansk Folkeparti...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

Sean Gabb?

The establishement is not defined as having money or even power or standing in society. Is rather being part of the "right" group. Journalists are for instance more of a part of establishement than most businessmen and even many politicians. In fact, few businessmen are part of the establishement, it's sort of the same as with workers and trade unions. Most business power is in their organizations.

The UKIP have been endorsed by a group of Tory Peers (in the House of Lords).
That is establishment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

I'd be suprised if Plaid did that well... but with the insanely low turnout that's going to happen who knows...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A semi-decent polling firm (Populus) has published a Euro poll:

Lab 25-26%
Con 24%
LD  16-18%
UKIP 13%
Greens 8-9%
BNP 3-4%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you suppose that the Lib Dems will come fourth behind UKIP ?

Could happen... which might force Kennedy's resignation. Which would be bad for the LibDems as he's much more popular than his party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout so far in postal vote trial areas:

Leeds - 30%
Manchester - 23%
Liverpool - 23.68%
Sunderland - 34.5%
Sheffield - 28%
Newcastle - 25.49%
Hull - 19%
Bradford - 24.98%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where did you get those figures Al?

BBC

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
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The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)