Who do you think will make the CNBC Republican debate?

[Orser67]

CNBC requires 2.5% or higher in an average of national polls to make the main event.

[Likely Voter]

Short answer: Almost certainly the same group as the CNN debate, with Paul the only real maybe

Long answer: CNBC is only taking polls from six media outlets over a five week period. Four have already released polls in that period (CNN, Fox, Bloomberg and NBC). ABC and CBS will likely have one poll each and CNN and Fox will likely have another and maybe one other outlet will double down. So we are likely to only see 5 more polls. Assuming that, then Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush and Cruz have all already qualified, even if they got 0% in all five new polls. Kasich, Christie and Huckabee should all easily qualify as they just need to average 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7 respectively in the next 5 polls. Paul is on the bubble, needing to average 2.3. As for the rest they need to start polling in the 4% range which isn't going to happen.

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Same ones as last time for the main one (except for Walker, obviously).

LOL @ no Gilmore

[Orser67]

Long answer: CNBC is only taking polls from six media outlets over a five week period. Four have already released polls in that period (CNN, Fox, Bloomberg and NBC). ABC and CBS will likely have one poll each and CNN and Fox will likely have another and maybe one other outlet will double down. So we are likely to only see 5 more polls. Assuming that, then Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush and Cruz have all already qualified, even if they got 0% in all five new polls. Kasich, Christie and Huckabee should all easily qualify as they just need to average 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7 respectively in the next 5 polls. Paul is on the bubble, needing to average 2.3. As for the rest they need to start polling in the 4% range which isn't going to happen.

Good answer