French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Hash]

Pas-de-Calais - Part III

11th (Everybody Loves Marineland! in Hénin-Beaumont/Carvin, PS^)* The old 14th is the 11th, gaining, compared to the 14th, the canton of Carvin. This seat is, of course, the one seat which everybody cares about and which everybody knows about (when in most cases, they really don't). The cause is, of course, Panzergirl, who carpetbagged here back in 2007 or so and became Hénin-Beaumont's most famous resident, even if I kinda doubt that Mrs. Born-in-Neuilly actually lives in some old mining village. The city of Hénin-Beaumont has become known across France as "that place where the Le Pen chick is from". She won first place on April 22 in this constituency with 31.4% of the vote (Hollande took 60.4% in the runoff). In Hénin-Beaumont proper, Marion won 35.5% and she's had a "favourite daughter" effect of sorts which has boosted the FN's results in surrounding communes. The new constituency includes the cantons of Hénin-Beaumont, Rouvroy (PCF stronghold), Leforest, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Courrieres and Carvin. In the past, the entirety of these cantons, up until the last mines close in the 1990s (these mines were the last to close), were all mining villages or included cités minières. Rouvroy, Hénin, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Noyelles-Godault, Libercourt, Oignies and Carvin all included mines. Nowadays, with the mines closed, these areas remain very poor. Instead of miners, it is a more mixed population of manual workers, forced to commute to work in larger communes (this is the case in Libercourt, where people commute to a Renault plant in Douai); and low-paid employees in social activities and the public sector. Courcelles-lès-Lens and Noyelles-Godault saw a metal plant close down in 2003. Furthermore, one thing which few people realize, this area is more and more a poor exurb of Lille.

Since 1958, this seat - which was the 14th until 2009 - elected a right-winger only once, in 1993. Between 1958 and 1973 the seat was held by the Socialists. Between 1973 and 1986, the PCF's Joseph Legrand held the seat. In 1988, Albert Facon (PS), mayor of Courrières, won the seat uncontested in the runoff (because the PCF placed second). In 1993, after outpolling the PCF mayor of Rouvroy Yves Coquelle by one vote, he lost to Jean Urbaniak, DVD mayor of Noyelles-Godault since 1983 in the runoff, with 46.3% in the runoff. Urbaniak was a fairly mavericky, independent figure but that didn't help him in 1997. He placed third in the first round with 23.8% behind Coquelle (25.4%) and Facon (25.6%). In a triangulaire against the FN's Steeve Briois (who later joined the MNR, afaik), Urbaniak won only 31.7% against 52.3% for Facon and 16% for Briois. In 2002, Facon (26.2%) and Briois (20.1%) qualified for the runoff, while Gérard Dalongeville, the MDC mayor of Hénin-Beaumont (who was forced out in 2009 in a corruption scandal) placed third with 14.4%. Urbaniak won 12.2% as a DVD candidate, ahead of the PCF (11.1%) and the UMP (7.7%). In the runoff, Facon won 67.9% against the FN. In 2007, the high-profile contest between Facon and Panzergirl ended in the only runoff in France for which the FN qualified. Facon won 28.2% against 24.5% for Panzergirl, Urbaniak - now MoDem - winning 13.2% and the UMP's Nesrédine Ramdani winning 12.95%. The PCF won 11.5%. In the runoff, Marine lost but did well, winning 41.7%. She won 44.5% in Hénin-Beaumont, 48% in Noyelles-Godault (after giving 59% to Urbaniak) and 48.7% in Courcelles-lès-Lens. In the 2009 local by-election in Hénin, the FN won 39.3% in the first round against 20.2% for Daniel Duquenne, an anti-corruption leftie and 17% for Pierre Ferrari (PS). The FN lost to Duquenne with 52.4% in the runoff.

The PS incumbent, Albert Facon is retiring - more or less pushed into doing so. In a very divided and likely semi-rigged PS primary, the mayor of Carvin, Philippe Kemel narrowly beat out another guy. His suppleant is the PS mayor of Leforest. Traditionally, the PS has been the dominant party of the left over the PCF in Hénin-Beaumont, although the PCF dominates right next door in Rouvroy. Like in most of the mining basin, politics usually were a fraternal fight between PS and PCF, and despite any ideological proximity and other appearances, both parties here have a long history of enmity. The PS in the Pas-de-Calais was, for quite some time, backed by heavy anti-communist rhetoric from its leaders. Unlike in the Nord, furthermore, the PS has always tended to be the dominant party of the left, even in most of the mining basin, against the PCF. This is a long-standing tradition, first noted in the 1890s, and maintained by a strong PS machine on the ground in the Pas-de-Calais' mining basin. In recent years, however, the PS-62 has been going down the sh**tter. A lot of its prominent leaders got caught with their hands in the jelly pot, Dalongeville being a local example while Kucheida in Liévin being the most recent example. Factional conflicts, based heavily on personality, have also weakened the PS-62, which has found itself unable to renew its leadership. Factional conflicts are very big in Hénin, where the PS went down the sh**tter with Dalongeville, who seems to have done a Roberto Jefferson and written a book about corruption in the PS. Kemel's nomination resulted in a bad factional conflict, leaving Marine in a strong position to potentially win this seat on the back of the PS' crappy state and its bad image locally.

That is until her worst enemy on the face of the earth, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, decided to come and piss her off in her own backyard. Mélenchon opted to run in this constituency after his Tour de France of constituencies. On April 22, he won 14.9% of the vote, including 23% in the canton of Rouvroy but only 12% in the canton of Hénin-Beaumont. His candidacy was a pretty big risk for him to take, because this isn't a PCF stronghold and the PCF has not been too prominent in this constituency since 1997 or so. I don't think he starts off with a strong PCF infrastructure. But certain things went in his favour: his undeniable charisma, which puts him on equal footing with Panzergirl; his ability to tap into left-wing protest sentiments which run high here given the disastrous state of the PS; and a local ability to benefit from a bunch of grudges, petty personality feuds and mini-civil wars between local PS barons. Facon has been eerily silent, and likely personally supports Mélenchon given his deep enmity with Kemel. Kemel's rival in the primary is basically backing Mélenchon. The DVG mayor of Hénin-Beaumont welcomed his candidacy, almost with open arms. Even if base PS sympathizers might dislike him, it's only a small proportion of left-wing voters who are actually partisans or party members. Local left-wing voters might like Mélenchon's image and stature. There is also the potential factor, touched upon in one article, that local voters in this rather insular setting might like the fact that a big guy like Mélenchon pays superficial attention to them.

The main other candidate is, again, Jean Urbaniak, mayor of Noyelles-Godault and CG for Hénin-Beaumont. He is running more or less as an independent, but with the MoDem's backing and the UMP's endorsement - his suppleant is Nesrédine Ramdani, who gives the impression of being the only UMP member in this area. There is also a PRG candidate, who is a regional councillor; an EELV person; two far-lefties (LO and NPA) plus a Stalinist. Urbaniak is basically the best candidate the non-FN right could come up with, given his strong local base, but he won't win.

An Ifop poll gave the following results:

Marine (FN) 34%
Mélenchon (FG-PG) 29%
Kemel (PS) 18%
Urbaniak (MoDem-UMP) 16%
EELV 2.5%
LO 0.5%
None others polled

According to this (doubtful) poll, Mélenchon would win 55-45 and Kemel would win 56-44. If Urbaniak makes it, Mélenchon wins 44-36-20. The poll has surprised some, but personally, I think Mélenchon can pretty easily be the top candidate on the left, for reasons mentioned above. As for the runoff, 2009 in Hénin-Beaumont was almost as good as it could get for the FN, and she still lost. The addition of Carvin, where she's not as well implanted, could also hurt her (but it will hurt Mélenchon too). She can win, but I have heavy doubts. It would require her to poll 50%+1, which isn't impossible for the FN, but always a tough proposition. Turnout can, of course, play big tricks, but still...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (against the far-right, lean FG over PS)

12th (Liévin, DVG)* This seat loses Avion and Sains-en-Gohelle, but gains Cambrin, Douvrin and Wingles. The seat's centre remains Liévin, one of the major cities in the mining basin and a very poor working-class city with a mining past. Liévin but also Grenay, Loos-en-Gohelle, Bully-les-Mines, Mazingarbe, Cambrin, Auchy-les-Mines, Douvrin and Wingles all used to be major mining villages. Besides the northern parts of the canton of Cambrin, which are now fairly affluent suburbs to Lille (and right-leaning), the rest of the seat is solidly left-wing and all working-class. Hollande won 62.6% here, and Marine won 30.1% (and Sarko only 15%) in the first round. She took 29% in Liévin, 32% in Wingles, 31% in Douvrin, 32% in Auchy-les-Mines and 34% in Mazingarbe. Mélenchon won 12.4%, this seat lacks "core" PCF strongholds, though Auchy-les-Mines, iirc, is a PCF stronghold of sorts. Since 1981, the 12th has been the stronghold of Jean-Pierre Kucheida, a strongman of the PS-62 and mayor of Liévin since 1981. In 2007, he won 69.7% in the runoff, in 2002 he faced the FN in the runoff and in 1997 he won uncontested in the runoff after the PCF placed second. Recently, however, the PS has been forced - quite reluctantly - to exclude him given that he too has been found with the hand in the cookie jar. Therefore, Kucheida is running for reelection as a DVG, being opposed by a PS candidate - Nicolas Bays - who, because he's basically a nobody - gives the impression that the PS wasn't too hot on the idea of throwing JPK under the bus. Kucheida will likely win rather easily, despite being a crook, and will likely face the FN in a runoff, like in 2002. The right won't be a presence at all.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Maybe the Bouches-du-Rhone next? Unless anybody is eager for another department.

[Hash]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

[Hash]

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

That sucks. Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

Dude, I work 38 hours a week; I sleep, I eat and I waste time like any normal human being, and I'm already sacrificing all my free time and more to write these. Unless I can be cloned or somebody joins me in doing this, then as a normal human being, it's unreasonable to expect me to cover 450 constituencies in a serious fashion in like 13 days.

[Hash]

Bouches-du-Rhône

1st (Marseille-11, part of 10 and 12/Vallée de l'Huveaune, UMP^)* The new first covers all of the 11th arrondissement, the north of the 10th and the south of the 12th. It corresponds to the southern part of the old 8th constituency, and part of the old 1st constituency. It is in eastern Marseille, following the A50 highway. Sarko won 55.8% here and Marion won 25.1%. The 11th is a fairly low-income or lower middle-class area in general, with blue-collar or working poor areas in the Vallée de l'Huveaune but more affluent parts in the hills. The 12th is much more affluent, except for a few areas, with some much nicer houses. Sarko won 63% in the canton of Les Trois-Lucs, which includes some of the more affluent parts of the 11th and 12th. Hollande, on the other hand, won 52% in the canton of Saint-Martin, which includes less affluent and oftentimes big HLM concentrations in the valley along the highway. The far-right is predictably weak in the affluent neighborhoods, but polls very well in the valley's more lower-income and blue-collar areas. Marion won 28.8% in the canton of Saint-Martin and 27.5% in the canton of La Pomme (which is not entirely part of this constituency, but the neighborhood of La Pomme itself is - it is a low-income area). The area is somewhat isolated from the downtown parts, in parts it is quite economically and socially marginalized; a perfect recipe, again, for a strong FN vote. The old eight constituency's UMP incumbent, Valérie Boyer, is running here, with Roland Blum, the UMP incumbent in the old first, as her suppleant. She faces a strong NC candidacy from Robert Assante, mayor of the 6th sector and CG for Les Trois-Lucs. The PS candidate is Christophe Masse, a scion of a political family which used to be dominant in the city, CG for Les Olives and former deputy for the eight between 2002 and 2007. The FN is likely to make a triangulaire here, which would be closely fought. Boyer-Blum are a pretty strong duo, and she's an ambitious young member of the Droite pop which can be counted on to appear as a FN-lite. Masse is also a strong candidate. A triangulaire could be very dangerous for the right. A close race for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Marseille-7 and 8, UMP)* The second expands to take in parts of the old third (the canton of Saint-Lambert) but loses part of the canton of Vauban. The boundaries are simple, otherwise: the entirety of the 7th and 8th arrondissements of Marseille, the southern coast of the city, south of the Vieux-Port. The 7th and 8th are some of the most affluent parts of the city, especially the Roucas-Blanc, Bompard, Endoume, Périer, La Plage and Saint-Giniez areas. You do have some more bobo or less affluent parts around the Vieux-Port area, but overall this is an affluent constituency. Sarko won 60.8% here, Marine won only 16.8%. Sarko nearly won 68% in the canton of Saint-Giniez, and won over 55% in La-Pointe-Rouge and Saint-Lambert cantons. The incumbent in the old second is Dominique Tian (UMP) since 2002. He won by the first round with over 57% in 2007. He will certainly win again this year, possibly by the first round given the low calibre of left-wing candidates in this conservative stronghold. The FN is unsurprisingly weak here, so no big FN presence should be counted on in these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Marseille-13, part of 12 and 14, notional PS):* Nothing to do with the old third: the new third takes in all of the 13th, parts of the 12th and parts of the 14th arrondissements of the city. It corresponds, grosso-modo, to the north of the old 8th constituency and northeast of the old 7th in northeastern Marseille. After the bourgeois of the 2nd constituency, welcome to another world. The 13th is not entirely a low-income area, as its outskirts include some more exurban areas which are a tad more affluent and which post higher number in terms of education or house ownership. But parts of the 13th (Saint-Jérôme and Malpassé especially) and the parts of the 14th included here (Bon-Secours, Saint-Barthélémy etc) are very poor, working-class or blue-collar 'inner city' type areas: big HLM developments (or small houses), areas classified as 'ZUS' (zone urbaine sensible, aka dumps), very low education (sometimes over 40% with no certifications at all), very high unemployment, young populations, multicultural, crime problems and almost every other thing which comes along with blighted inner cities. Hollande won 50.7% here, but the area in general is shifting to the right in general. Marine placed second on April 22 with 26.2% here, doing well throughout the 13th (the more 'exurban' parts are not nearly as affluent as the 12th...) and 14th. I do suspect that Sarko won on May 6 in the more exurban/non ZUS parts of the 13th, while Hollande won by pretty big margins in the ZUS areas. The way Marleix used the scissors here, I think he envisioned for the right to be able to win this seat (like Boyer won the old 8th narrowly in 2007: that seat had voted PS in 1993...) in a year like 2007, but I doubt the UMP can stand a chance in 2012. The FN will do very well, and either go in a triangulaire or a straight PS-FN runoff. The PS incumbent here is Sylvie Andrieux, who is, of course, being a Socialist in Marseille (or - more fairly - a politician in Marseille) a crook/criminal. She has held the old 7th since 1997, a year in which the FN won 42.2% in the runoff. The candidate for the FN, who is more likely to make a strong presence than the UMP's sacrificial lamb, Stéphane Ravier, already won 11.8% in the awful year of 2007 in the old 7th and is well based in northern Marseille. I wouldn't be surprised if the UMP's Nora Preziosi is out by June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Marseille-1, 2, 3, parts of 5 and 6, notional PS)* Again, nothing to do with the old fourth: this constituency takes in all of the 1, 2 and 3rd arr. of Marseille and parts of the 5th and 6th. In terms of constituency, it includes parts of the old 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th. This seat is a great example - once again - of packing, or what has been called by some in France the "Indian reserve" strategy. Indeed, this seat, in which Hollande won 69.4% (!) is one of the safest seats for the left in France. It includes a lot of very poor and historically working-class 'inner city' areas of Marseille in the downtown area (most of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd arr.). Unemployment is 32.4% in the 3rd, 30.8% in the 2nd (including 41% in Grands-Carmes) and 26.7% in the 1st. The seat, for good measure, also takes in the most leftie parts of the 5th and 6th: Camas in the former, Notre-Dame-du-Mont/Cours Julien in the latter. In political terms, it is not very important. In social terms, however, these two neighborhoods are the bobo citadels of the city, the Cours Julien being a very popular place for students/artsy types/bobos in general. There is also gentrification at work in the 1st (in 2009, the Greenies won over 26% in the 1st...) and parts of the 2nd (Arenc). Patrick Mennucci, an ambitious PS bigwig (and opponent of the Godfather, Guérini) and mayor of the 1st sector, who narrowly lost in the old 3rd in 2007, is running here. The UMP (16.6% for Sarko on April 22) and the FN (14.5% for Marine) won't be a presence, so the fight is on the left. I must say that the UMP candidate is not a nobody; Solange Biaggi, the new CG for ND-du-Mont, though she only won in 2011 because the division of the left against a corrupt PRG incumbent (in a type of place which isn't too keen on reelecting corrupt lefties...) allowed her to face the FN in the runoff. Mennucci faces a dissident PS candidacy from Lisette Narducci, mayor of the 2nd sector and CG for La Belle-de-Mai. Narducci is a close ally of the Godfather. The FG could make its mark here, where Mélenchon placed second with 19.9%. At any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Marseille-4, parts of 5 and 6, UMP)* The new fifth includes all of the 4th arr. and the parts of the 5th and 6th which aren't included in the 4th constituency. This is a swing seat. Hollande won only 50.2% of the vote here on May 6. It is hard to give a sound descriptor to the whole of this constituency. The 4th arr. is a fairly middle-class area, with some bobo influences (Cinq-Avenues). The 5th arr. is also middle-class, with some more low-income or blue-collar areas. On the other hand, the 6th is an old bourgeois stronghold which is undergoing big sociological changes: Castellane and Lodi are attractive hip spots for the youth and students, and there is a big boboisation phenomenon at work. Hollande won the 6th arrondissement with 51% (though he might have lost outside of ND-du-Mont...), which was a major shock in this old right-wing stronghold. This is the big race in Marseille this year. On the right, Renaud Muselier, UMP incumbent in the old 5th since 1993, is running here. He is another ambitious right-winger in Marseille, and an influential political leader of the UMP in the department. He faces a more divided left. The PS candidate is junior minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti, CG for Les Cinqs-Avenues. The FG is behind Frédéric Dutoit, the former PCF deputy for the old 4th constituency, defeated in 2007. The far-right will probably not make a triangulaire here, where Marine won 18.8% which is probably a bit under what will be needed for the FN to qualify for the runoff.  The main fight is Carlotti/Muselier, which will certainly go down to the wire. A triangulaire would likely be very tough for the UMP, given that the FN vote around here generally transfers to the right in cases of UMP-PS runoffs. I'll cop out of predicting this one and choose the easy way out
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

[Hash]

Bouches-du-Rhône

6th (Marseille-9, parts of 10, UMP)* Loses the northern part of Les Pommes, gains most of La Capelette. It includes the large 9th and the remainders of the 10th arr. The 9th is a rather middle/upper middle class place all in all (especially Le Cabot and La Panouse), but it certainly includes some lower-income and more left-leaning areas (Baumettes, Sormiou). In the 9th, Sainte-Marguerite, and most of the 10th is not as affluent, it is more of a lower middle-class/suburban style found in the first constituency. An old white working-class in parts, today a poorer and more socially marginalized population of 'petits blancs'. Sarko won 56% here and Marine took 23% here, doing best around the north of the 9th and the 10th. The UMP incumbent since 1993 in the old sixth is Guy Tessier, mayor of the 5th sector. Despite his old age, he is running for yet another term. He should win rather easily, because he remains a popular incumbent with a good local record. The fact that the PS is backing an EELV candidate here, not of very high calibre, should also help matters. He is safe even in the event of a very likely triangulaire with the FN. Sarko had been way ahead on April 22 already.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

7th (Marseille-15, 16, parts of 14, PS)* This seat includes all of the 15th and 16th arr. and parts of the 14th arr. in northwestern Marseille, the core left-wing stronghold in the city. This seat includes most of the old 4th constituency, which was a PCF stronghold between 1958 and 2007, when the PCF lost this seat to the PS' Henri Jibrayel. The 2007 election marked the first election since 1958 (when the PCF won only 10 seats, remember...) that Marseille had no PCF deputy. In 2008, the PCF lost control of the 8th sector of the city to the PS. This is an extremely poor "inner-city" type of seat. In some neighborhoods of the 15th, like Les Crottes (a fitting name...), I'd wager that the feel, both socially and economically, is closer to North Africa than to western Europe. This doesn't just mean that there's a big immigrant population - there is - but the economic and social conditions are hardly better than in Algeria. Unemployment almost always above 30%, about 40% or more with no diploma, almost all of the area covered by a ZUS and so forth. The 16th is similar: an old working-class area which is now deprived and marginalized. L'Estaque is a bit more bobo and trendy, but right next door Saint-André is a cité populaire. The parts of the 14th included in this constituency tell a similar story: cités populaires, ZUS, low-income, old working-class, very ethnically diverse (example: Le Font-Vert), super high unemployment, terrible education numbers and so forth. Hardly a place you'd like to live in. Politically, the left is super-dominant, with the FN usually a distant second and the UMP polling like the plague. Hollande won 67.1% here, in the first round Sarko won only 13%, behind Marine (23.2%). While there are tons of likely FN voters (old WWC types), there are basically no large communities of traditional UMP voters. The PCF, as aforementioned, used to be super-dominant in northern Marseille, but it has been losing rapidly in recent years. In 2007, the PCF incumbent in the old 4th, Frédéric Dutoit, won third place in the first round with only 19%, allowing the PS' Henri Jibrayel to topple this historic PCF stronghold, which had voted Communist with almost no interruptions since 1936 or so. This year, the race is on the left or at best left-FN. The FG is keen on reconquering this old Commie bastion which gave 18.6% to Melenchon on April 22. Jean-Marc Coppola, a regional councillor, is the FG's candidate here. He faces the PS incumbent, Jibrayel, but also an EELV candidate (Karim Zéribi) who is well implanted locally. The FN is running Bernard Marandat, who will try to make the runoff, but because of low turnout, he will likely need to place second in order to do so. On the left, the FG in the department is on bad terms with the PS and this could throw cold water on any PS-FG deals between June 10 and 17. A PS-FG-FN triangulaire is not impossible, but a PS-FN or FG-FN runoff could be more likely. I think Jibrayel can hold on here, but at any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

8th (Salon-de-Provence/Berre-l'Étang, notional UMP)* The old eight was in Marseille, this new one covers the cantons of Salon, Berre-l'Étang and Pelissanne. This a fairly socially diverse constituency, but right-leaning overall. Sarko won 57.3% but Panzergirl won 25.1%. Berre-l'Étang is fairly left-wing, because it is a working-class and industrial city on the industrialized Étang de Berre (refineries, chemical industry). Marine won 29% there, Hollande then took 55.6%. Pelissanne and most of its canton (except for Lançon-Provence) are affluent suburbs for Aix or Marseille, so they are strongly right-wing though the FN is fairly weak. Salon-de-Provence is a more middle-class city, Marine won 24% despite a strong centrist tradition. This will be a race to follow. The left is divided. The PS is suffering from the contested candidacy of Olivier Ferrand, the president of the Terra Nova think-tank (which many on the left are critical of) who is originally from the area but with no political ties to the region. His suppleant, Jean Pierre Maggi, is a close ally of the Godfather. He does not any face dissident candidacies from the PS and has EELV's support. The UMP's candidate is a local, unlike the FN, PS and FG candidates: Nicolas Isnard, local councillor in Salon. A triangulaire is very likely, and this could be very bad for the right, even though Sarko was ahead here in the first round. I still think the UMP will pull through here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

9th (Aubagne/La Ciotat/Cassis, UMP) Unchanged constituency, still focused on Aubagne and its area. This constituency has shifted dramatically to the right. Sarko won 56.5% here. Aubagne used to be a fairly blue-collar town and a PCF stronghold - in fact, it is still ruled by the PCF. La Ciotat used to be a big shipbuilding capital until the 1980s, but since then, with a shift towards tourism and suburbanization, the right has gained the upper hand in the old PCF stronghold. Cassis, right next door, is a very affluent resort town, which gave no less than 72% to Sarkozy. Outside of these cities, this is a fairly affluent middle-class and very suburban constituency, with a pied-noir tradition (especially in Carnoux-en-Provence). Le Pen won 23.6%, strong but not exceptionally so. This seat was held by the PCF between 1962 and 2000, and never elected a right-winger until a 2000 by-election when the UDF's Bernard Deflesselles gained the seat from the PCF. He won easily against the FN in 2002 and then by the first round in 2007 with 51.8% in the first round. He is running again this year and enters as the favourite. The PS is backing EELV here, but the main left-wing candidate is likely Pierre Mingaud, the PCF mayor of La-Penne-sur-Huveaune. There remains a PCF tradition, Melenchon took over 18% in Aubagne and 14.2% in the constituency. The FN's Joëlle Melin seems to well implanted locally and will likely feature in a triangulaire, but I doubt the UMP would be seriously threatened in a triangulaire.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

10th (Gardanne/Allauch, UMP)* Loses Le Pennes-Mirabeau and gains a part of Aix-SO (commune of Meyreuil). The old working-class town of Gardanne (a big aluminium/metallurgical plant), where the PCF remains quite strong (nearly 20% for Melenchon) and the suburban middle-class town of Allauch (the UMP and FN dominant) are the main towns in this constituency. Outside of Gardanne proper, this is a fairly middle-class suburban constituency, though this is more of a "periurbain subi" (people 'forced' out of Marseille) who resent long commutes, high commodity and property prices and who are big on immigration/security concerns. This has shifted right a lot in recent years, Sarko won 56% here and Marine won 25.3% in the first round (doing best in Allauch). The UMP's Richard Mallié gained this seat in 2002, defeating Roger Meï, the PCF incumbent since 1996. In 2007, he won reelection with 57.1% against Meï. As in Aubagne, this constituency had not elected a right-winger since 1958, even in 1993 it was held by... Bernard Tapie. In the past, PCF and PS alternated, with a slight advantage for the PCF. This year, the seat was conceded to EELV by the PS, but I would think that the FG's Yveline Primo, local councillor in Gardanne, is the main left-wing candidate here. There is an outside chance the left's division could exclude it from the runoff, but I doubt it. The FN will probably make a triangulaire here and do fairly well. It is a very tough race, but I'd think the right can narrowly hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Les Pennes-Mirabeau/Aix-en-Provence sud, UMP)* Gains Les Pennes-Mirabeau and a part of the city of Aix-en-Provence included in the NE canton but loses Meyreuil (but keeps all of the canton of Aix SO outside of that), Salon-de-Provence and Pelissanne. I haven't checked which part of the city of Aix is gerrymandered into this seat, but I have my own little idea (a ZUS...). Les Pennes-Mirabeau is a middle-class suburban town, formerly more blue-collar, but more of a lower middle-class white suburb nowadays full of FN voters (32% for Marine). Septèmes-les-Vallons is an old PCF stronghold. The rest of the constituency is much less frontiste: only 20.4% for Marine in the constituency, which gave 56.2% to Sarko. Why? It includes the affluent neighborhoods of Aix-en-Provence and its similarly affluent and professional upper middle-class suburbs (notice the difference in the canton of Pennes-Mirabeau between Pennes-Mirabeau and Cabriès...). The right in Aix is a world away from the right in Aubagne or Marignane: it is much less likely to go insane about immigration and security, it has a far more centrist/moderate/pro-European/social liberal penchant. After all, Aix is a uni town, very professional, fairly affluent and liberal in the social sense, perhaps even in the economic sense (to American readers: 'economic liberalism' is NOT economically left-wing!). The right has held the old 11th since 1988. Christian Kert has held this seat since then, winning over 61% in the 2007 runoff. He faces Gaëlle Lenfant, a PS regional councillor and defeated 2007 candidate. The FN will not make a triangulaire here, most likely, so it will probably be a 'duel' runoff. I think Kert can prevail.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

[Hash]

12th (Marignane/Vitrolles/Fascist Country, UMP)* Basically loses Berre-l'Etang. It includes the fairly well-known (for unfortunate reasons) towns of Vitrolles and Marignane, which are famous for both having elected far-right mayors. Vitrolles, an historically left-leaning and low income working-class city, is now a lower middle-class suburb with crime/immigration/security/marginalization/cost of living concerns. Marignane is a right-wing city with a large pied noir population but a fairly similar social situation. The constituency also includes the canton of Châteauneuf-Côte-Bleue, which mixes some old working-class PCF strongholds (Le Rove) with wealthy suburbs/resorts (Carry-le-Rouet, Sausset-les-Pins) and more lower middle-class suburbs (Châteauneuf-les-Martigues). Sarko won 57.6% here, but Marine came first on April 22 with 29.9%, including 27% in Vitrolles, 35% in Marignane and 31% in Châteauneuf. The far-right has long been very strong here. Vitrolles elected a FN/MNR mayor in 1997, Catherine Mégret, the wife of Bruno Mégret, who turned Vitrolles into the family turf. Bruno the Nazi won 46% in the 1997 runoff against the PS here, and still took 18.6% as a MNR candidate in 2002 (but only 2% in 2007, lol). Catherine Mégret proved to be a terrible mayor who was bent on turning the city into a fascist dictatorship until she lost a 2002 by-election to the left. Marignane was ruled between 1995 and 2008 by Daniel Simonpieri, originally a megretiste FN member who shifted more to the UMP in his last years in office. If the FN is to win a seat here, it will obviously be here. The UMP incumbent since 2002 - in a seat which the right had never won prior to that - is Eric Diard, basically a FN-lite. He won 50.5% by the first round in 2007, and over 55% against the PS in a 2002 runoff. He faces Paul Cupolati (FN). The left is divided between Vincent Burroni, CG/mayor for Châteauneuf and a close friend of the Godfather; and Benjamin Durand, a anti-Godfather local councillor in Aubagne. The left's division could mean that, despite having a sizable base in places like Vitrolles, it could be eliminated by the first round, and Diard could defeat the FN in a mano-a-mano duel in the runoff. A triangulaire, however, would, like in 1993 and 1997, likely be fatal to the right here and open a window for the FN to actually win this seat. The scenario of a left-wing elimination by June 10 appears, in my opinion, fairly likely. A three-way race, for real, to watch.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (left, right, far-right)

13th (Packing the Lefties in Martigues/Port-Saint-Louis/Fos-sur-Mer/Port-de-Bouc, PCF)* Gains Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, loses Istres-nord. Another good example of an "Indian reserve"/packing constituency. Marleix, probably looking beyond 2012, packed the leftie strongholds outside of Marseille into this constituency. It is a largely working-class and low-income constituency made up of the ugly polluted industrial cities of Martigues, Port-de-Bouc, Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône (shipbuilding, refineries, chemical industry, metallurgy, harbour in Fos). Martigues, Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône are PCF strongholds; Martigues has elected PCF mayors since 1958. Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône gave a *plurality* to Melenchon on April 22 with 36.5% and 32% respectively. That day, Mélenchon won 21.5% in the constituency against 25.6% for Marine, 23.6% for Hollande and 19.5% for Sarko. Hollande won 55.1% in the runoff, including 61% in Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône and 67% in Port-de-Bouc. The right won the old 13th, a tad more right-wing, in 1993, but otherwise it has been a PCF/left bastion. In 2007, Michel Vaxes (PCF, inc since 1997) easily defeated the PS mayor of Fos, René Raimondi, in the first round (30.5% vs. 15.1%) and then won with 56% in the runoff. This year, he is retiring in favour of Gaby Charroux, the PCF CG/mayor of Martigues. Charroux faces a dissident PCF candidacy from Paul Lombard, mayor of Martigues between 1968 and 2009 and deputy between 1988 and 1993. Charroux must all wrestle against René Raimondi, the PS mayor of Fos and 2007 candidate. Charroux is likely the favourite, and the UMP's Michèle Vasserot, despite her very FN-lite attitudes, could be eliminated by the first round and open the path for either a FG-PS-FN runoff or FG-FN runoff. But the redistricting, adding Port-Saint-Louis, is very favourable to the PCF. I think the FG should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

14th (Aix-en-Provence nord, UMP)* This seat only loses a part of the canton of Aix NE, noted above. It is centered around Aix, its very affluent suburbs and some more distant exurban/suburban parts in the cantons of Trets and Peyrolles. AFAIK, this seat includes the studenty leftie parts of Aix but also a lot of its more affluent and fairly solidly right-wing (with a negligible FN presence) in the cantons of Aix NE and Trets. The uniqueness of the Aixoise right was discussed above, it is also noteworthy to discuss the fact that Aix - this constituency in particular - has been shifting left while the rest of the 13 outside of Marseille has tacked very hard to the right/far-right. Sarko won, but only with 53%. Marine won only 17.1% here, doing poorly in Aix and even more poorly in its upper middle-class/affluent suburbs. The UMP incumbent since 2002, in a seat held by the right since 1988, is Maryse Joissains-Masini, the UMP mayor of Aix. She is vulgar, authoritarian and stupid but despite all that, and a heterogeneous PS-MoDem opposition front against her, she won the 2009 local by-elections very narrowly. She's old, but she is running again. The NC candidacy of the mayor of Châteauneuf-le-Rouge might hinder her a bit. She faces a local PS mayor, Jean-David Ciot, who might be hurt by his close ties to the Godfather. The FN won't make the runoff, so the runoff is likely UMP-PS. I would love for the vulgar old geezer to lose, but I'm fairly pessimistic.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

15th (Châteaurenard/Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, UMP) This seat gave 60.3% to Sarko, his second best result in the department. Its main towns are Châteaurenard and Saint-Rémy-de-Provence. This is basically suburban/exurban country split between Avignon, Marseille and Nimes. This region is generally lower middle/middle-class, with a large population of intermediate-grade professionals and employees. You guessed it: Marine did great here (26.5%). The right has been triumphant here since 1988. In 2007, the UMP mayor of Châteaurenard, Bernard Reynès, defeated longtime (since 1988) incumbent here, Léon Vachet. The runoff opposed these two right-wingers, the dissident won with 61.7%. Bernard Reynès is the big favourite for a second term, facing the leftie Nicette Aubert, a local councillor and ex-PCF, and the FN's Olivia Ponsdesserre. A UMP-FN runoff or a triangulaire is likely, but the right will win no matter what.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

16th (Camargue/Arles/Istres, PS)* Loses Port-Saint-Louis but gains Istres-nord. The constituency's main cities are Arles, a fairly politically marginal city which is fairly poor and traditionally working-class (but at the local level it is ruled by the PCF), part of Istres which is a traditionally working-class PS stronghold, Miramas (a cite cheminote, afaik) and Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer (a right-wing resort town). The redistricting clearly aimed to make this seat a bit more marginal or even right-leaning. Sarko won 51.8% here, but in the first round he placed third because Marine took 27.8%. The incumbent since 2007 is the president of the region, Michel Vauzelle, who had already held the seat between 1988 and 1993 and 1997 and 2002. He won in a triangulaire in 1997, lost narrowly to the UMP mayor of Saintes-Maries Roland Chassain and defeated Chassain with 52.3% in the runoff. Roland Chassain is indeed running again, and in a 2007-like year, he would likely win because of the new boundaries. But this year? With a FN almost certain to make it a three-way (lol) with Valérie Laupies, Vauzelle should win fairly easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

[Hash]

In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.

In this case, I must disagree pretty strongly. From what I've been reading from people on the ground there and all, which is a big part of my research going into this (I do tons of research for this, hence why I won't finish all 577), it would appear as if the FG is the favourite. You might have the last laugh, but forced to choose, I'd go FG.

[Hash]

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

[Hash]

Ugh, I hate doing this and this feels dirty, but I guess I feel constrained to swoop down to media pundit levels and give superficial profiles. If I don’t give any sociological precisions, it’s not because I can’t but because it doesn’t seem to be necessary for the people who read this From now on, this will suck balls, and I apologize to people like Fab, but life sucks… I hope the armchair critics will be pleased by this newish format.
 
Gard
2007: 3 UMP, 1 NC, 1 PS

1st (Nîmes/Beaucaire, NC)* Nicely gerrymandered constituency. It loses Nîmes-4 and 5 but gains the canton of Beaucaire. Sarko won 52.2% here, due entirely to strong results in Vistrenque and Beaucaire, lower middle-class suburbs of Nice in the Rhône valley with a strong FN base (Marine: 25.5% in the first round here, but 34% in Beaucaire!). This gerrymandered seat includes two left-wing ‘populaire’ cantons of Nîmes, the 6th (65% Hollande) and 3rd (56% Hollande). The PCF held this seat between 1997 and 2002 with the former mayor of Nîmes Alain Clary, but since 2002 it has been held by the NC’s Yvan Lachaud. In 2007, he won reelection with 57% in the runoff against the PS, which had narrowly outpaced Clary in the first round. Lachaud is running again, but the right is divided because of the candidacy of the PRV mayor of Beaucaire, Jacques Bourbousson. On the left, the PS should easily be dominant, with the 2007 candidate, Françoise Dumas, a local and regional councillor who benefits from EELV’s backing. The FN, near-certain to make a triangulaire, is represented by Julien Sanchez, a regional councillor. The FN cannot win here, but a triangulaire in which the right suffers from first round division could be fatal to Lachaud. The PS has a real chance here, unfortunately for Marleix’s scissors.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Saint-Gilles/Aigues-Mortes/Vauvert/Camarague gardoise, UMP)* Loses Beaucaire and Marguerittes, gains Sommières. This constituency, which gave 56% to Sarko but above all else gave Marine 28.9% and comfortable first place on April 22, is one of the FN’s top targets. This seat includes the low-lying lands of the ‘Camargue gardoise’ with its big fruit farms (and fruit farmers love ‘em some FN) and the lower middle-class exurb/suburb towns of Saint-Gilles, Vauvert and Aigues-Mortes. The FN has always been very strong, Saint-Gilles, which gave over 35% to Panzergirl, was the first city to be ruled by the FN, between 1989 and 1992. In 1997 and 2002, the FN featured in triangulaires in the old second, the first of which resulted in a narrow PS win and the second of which, in 2002, resulted in a narrow win by Étienne Mourrut (who won reelection in 2007 with nearly 60% against the PS). The famous lawyer Gilbert Collard is running for the FN this year, against Mourrut and the PS’ Katy Guyot. The left has been seriously weakened here in the past decade(s) or so, and Hollande took about 22% in the first round. The absence of an EELV candidate helps the PS, but it is possible that the runoff would be just UMP-FN, in which case Mourrut would likely win. However, Collard should hope for a triangulaire in which he might well be the favourite, benefiting from his fairly moderate image for a FN candidate and the incumbent’s share of problems. I’ll cop-out, again, from a solid prediction here, but I’d either be safe and say the UMP narrowly pulls this one out or Collard pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (right-left-far-right)
 
3rd (Villeneuve-lès-Avignon/Bagnols-sur-Cèze, UMP)* Loses Uzès and Pont-Saint-Esprit. Sarko took 55.3% here, Marine won second place behind him with 25.9% in the first round. Besides Villeneuve-lès-Avignon which are more affluent and less frontiste-voting suburbs of Avignon, this region is a largely suburban/exurban region, fairly middle-class and usually white-collar. The left retains some strength here, especially in Bagnols-sur-Cèze. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP’s Jean-Marc Roubaud, mayor of Villeneuve-lès-Avignon. He should not face much trouble winning reelection this year, even in the high likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN, like in 1997 or 2002. The PS candidate is Patrice Prat, CG for Roquemaure.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Alès-est/Pont-Saint-Esprit, UMP)* Lots of boundary changes here: loses Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges but gains Pont-Saint-Esprit. Hollande won 51.7% here, and Sarko had placed a distant third in the first round with only 22.4%, with Marine winning the constituency with 25.8%. This is a weird and incoherent constituency, taking two eastern cantons of Alès, the ‘capital’ of the Cévennol mining basin, and extending all the way to the Rhône in the canton of Pont-Saint-Esprit. It ends up mixing from lower-lying and lower middle-class suburbs/exurbs (cantons of Saint-Chaptes, Pont-Saint-Esprit) with some old mining cantons (Saint-Ambroix, Alès NE). Marine’s result was surprisingly strong in this constituency, which has not usually been one of the FN’s strongest in the department. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP mayor of Alès, Max Roustan. The seat’s old boundaries had been more conducive to electing PCF members, which it did in 1988 and 1997. In 2007, Roustan won 53.2% in the runoff against the former PCF deputy. Though Mélenchon won 15.2% here, the loss of Grand-Combe and Génolhac will hurt the FG candidate, Édouard Chaulet, PCF mayor/CG of Barjac. The PS’ Fabrice Verdier, mayor of Fons-sur-Lussan, should dominate on the left. A triangulaire with the FN is quite likely, but I think that in either scenarios, Roustan is about toast. He’s a fairly useless deputy and the seat leans to the left.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
5th (Cévennes/Grand-Combe/Alès-ouest, PS)* Loses Sommières, gains Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges. Hollande won 56.7% in this seat, whose raison-d’être, for Marleix, was to be a packing-the-lefties constituency. It mixes some PCF strongholds in the old mining basin (Grand-Combe, Génolhac – Mélenchon took 24% and 25% in those two cantons) with some other left-wing strongholds in the Cévennes, a left-wing region overall, in good part due to heavy Protestant (Calvinist) influences. The cantons of Quissac, Saint-Mamert-du-Gard and Lédignan (Anduze and Sauve to a lesser extent) are in Nîmes’s suburban/exurban influence and tend to give the FN (Marine won 22.8% in the 5th, her weakest in the Gard) its strongest results, while the Cévennes, still largely rural, remain, on the whole, more resistant to the FN and retain their left-wing traditions. This is the only PS seat in the department, held by William Dumas since 2004. The right only won it in 1993. Dumas is running again, but the Greens and FG, which are both fairly strong in this constituency (especially the FG, Mélenchon won 17.8%), have strong candidates. The EELV candidate is the Green CG/mayor of Le Vigan, with the CG for Anduze as his running mate. The FG, which can count on the mining cantons in the north, is backing the PCF CG for Alès W. The right will not be a significant factor, and I do not think that the FN will qualify for the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
6th (Nîmes/Uzès, notional UMP)+: This new constituency includes three cantons of Nîmes, Uzès and Marguerittes. It includes more affluent and right-leaning neighborhoods of Nîmes (though one of the cantons of Nîmes included here voted for Hollande), the city of Uzès (fairly marginal politically, but it voted for Hollande, though the canton did not) and the lower middle-class suburban canton of Marguerittes, where Marine won over 31%. The seat is basically crafted to elect a right-winger. Sarko placed first in both rounds, winning 53.1% in the runoff. Marine, while strong in Marguerittes, was quite a bit weaker in Nîmes and Uzès, so she only won 24.4% in this seat overall. UMP MEP Franck Proust, a former CG, is the favourite in this new constituency. On the left, the PS is backing the EELV CG for Saint-Chaptes, and there is an outside chance that he could win, but I would bet heavily on the UMP. The FN can probably qualify for the runoff here, but I doubt a triangulaire here would prove particularly dangerous for the UMP.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

[Hash]

Lozère
2007: 2 UMP
 
At-large (Lozère, notional UMP)* Sparsely populated and still heavily rural (and in parts even agricultural) Lozère lost its second seat in the redistricting, so for the first time ever, two departments – Creuse and Lozère – will be returning only one member. In the past, tradition dictated that each department should have two seats. Up until the turn of the century, this seat would have reserved no suspense. Lozère, a Catholic region save for the anti-clerical, Protestant and uber-leftie Cévennes, has usually been a core conservative bastion. This year, however, Sarko only won the department by some 50 votes, with Hollande winning 49.95%, certainly one of the most ‘shocking’ results of May 6. The department had already elected a PS deputy in 1997, in 2008 the left gained the main town, Mende (at the core of the left’s big gains) and in 2011 the long-time baron of the right, Jacques Blanc, lost his Senate seat to the PS mayor of Mende, Alain Bertrand who easily won a senatorial by-election this year. Hollande won nearly 70% in the Cévennes, and though he lost heavily in the Catholic high plateaus of the northeast (Aubrac and Margeride), he won big in Mende (56%...) and even in right-wing towns such as Marvejols, Chanac or Sainte-Enimie. The department remains very rural. The loss of the second seat has created a bad civil war climate on the right between the two UMP incumbents: Francis Saint-Léger, the ‘official’ candidate, member of the Droite pop; and Pierre Morel à-l’Huissier, mayor/CG of Fournels, the dissident, closer to the humanist/centre-right/Wauquiez-ite wing of the UMP. There is also an independent right-wing candidate, Vincent Mathieu. Saint-Léger’s suppléant is the CG/mayor of Saint-Chély. The left’s main candidate is the PS’ Sophie Pantel, CG/mayor of Le-Pont-de-Montvert. This will be a very close race. A triangulaire, UMP-UMP-PS is possible, and the FN could do fairly well, Marine having won over 17% on April 22. The right’s division could leave scars on the UMP, even if there is superficial unity on the right on June 17. Fab says my predictions are too conservative, so I’ll make a fairly daring prediction here... I think the PS pulls this out, and makes history (kind of). In any case, I was thinking about how the first round map by canton here will be fun.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

[Hash]

Jesus Christ. People will either have to learn to live with the way I'm doing this and stop being armchair critics; or I'll stop doing these altogether and just post a colourful map. I'm already killing all the free time I could have and working every single available minute on this, and I don't find this all that enjoyable of a thing to do after a busy day at work. If you still complain, then please do it yourself.

...

Hérault
 
1st (Montpellier/Lattes, UMP^)* Loses the 1st and 4th canton of Montpellier but gains the commune of Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone (canton of Frontignan) and the 8th canton of Montpellier. Hollande won by the skin of his teeth here, with 50.4% of the votes. This constituency is divided between Montpellier, which leans heavily to the left, and Lattes, an affluent coastal resort canton (Palavas-les-Flots) which is solidly right-wing. This seat takes in some more lower middle-class urban parts of Montpellier in the south and, I believe, a ZUS. Lattes proper is a bit more marginal, but voted for Sarko by a comfortable margin while Palavas gave nearly 65% to Sarko. The old first elected a Socialist only once, in 1997, thanks to a triangulaire with the FN’s Jean-Claude Martinez. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Palavas, Christian Jeanjean, won the seat and upon his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded by Jacques Doumergue, who won 52.2% in the runoff. This year, Doumergue is retiring and Jeanjean is running again – with the UMP’s support. He had led, in 2010, a dissident list in the regionals which won only 2% of the votes. Though not very dangerous electorally, it is interesting to note that Patrice Drevet, the greenish ex-weatherman is running for the PRV. Jeanjean faces, notably, Jean-Louis Roumégas, EELV local councillor in Montpellier and main regional leader for the Greens. Roumégas benefits from Solférino’s backing, but must first defeat Cyril Meunier, DVG mayor/CG of Lattes, backed by the local PS. The left can definitely win here, especially if the FN’s Alain Jamet can qualify for the runoff. Marine won 20.8% here, doing best in Palavas (27%) and Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone. It is possible, but not all that likely, that the FN will make the runoff. Roumégas is stronger than the average EELV candidate backed by the PS, and this constituency, while not a EELV bastion, is fairly good territory for the Greens. I don’t know who on the left will come out on top, but it will be a close race to follow.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
2nd (Montpellier Salamander, PS^)* Loses Montpellier’s 2nd and 10th cantons but gains the 1st and 3rd cantons, to create an ugly looking squid/salamander constituency, an Indian reserve for the lefties. Hollande won 65.3% in this constituency, including 73% in Montpellier-9 (the ZUS of La Paillade) and 66% in Montpellier-1 (studentish/bobo downtown). Montpellier itself is a left-wing stronghold since 1977. It has a large student/bobo/young/public sector white-collar population, and is generally middle-class though it has its share of ZUS. The old second was won by the right in 1993 and 2002. In 2002, Doumergue (UMP) had narrowly defeated Georges Frêche, who had won the seat in 1997. In 2007, the powerful PS president of the CG, André Vézinhet – now a “anti-Frêchiste” – won back the seat for the left with 53.9% in the runoff. The redistricting, of course, makes this a left-wing bastion, more so than in the past. Vézinhet is retiring, the PS’ Anne-Yvonne Le Dain is the favourite to succeed him. The Greens (4% for Joly here, not too shabby considering…) and the FG (16.8% for Mélenchon) will be aiming to do quite well. The FG candidate is René Revol, the PG mayor of Grabels and top candidate for the FG in the 2010 regionals. Marine won only 11.6% here, so no triangulaire!
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Montpellier-nord/Castelnau-les-Lez, UMP)* This seat gains Montpellier-2, but loses Montpellier-3, parts of Lunel (including Lunel proper) and the canton of Mauguio. Hollande won 50.5% in this constituency, due to his 59% in Montpellier-2, which includes the studentish and uni neighborhoods of the city. Indeed, Sarko narrowly dominated Hollande in the suburban parts of the constituency – Castelnau-le-Lez and the canton of Castries. These are upper middle-class, white-collar professional suburbs. The FN is fairly weak overall by local standards; Marine took only 17.6% here. The old third had been won once, in 1997, by the PS. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Pierre Grand, a prominent villepiniste and UMP mayor of Castelnau-le-Lez. Grand won 56.7% in the 2007 runoff. He should win a third term this year, facing fairly weak PS opposition (a regional and local councillor, Fanny Dombre-Coste). The FN should not be in a position to qualify for a triangulaire runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Larzac/Garrigues/Lodève, PRV-UMP)* This seat loses Montpellier-10, Pignan, Clermont-l’Hérault and Lunas. This seat includes affluent suburbs of Montpellier (cantons of Les Matelles, Aniane, parts of Saint-Martin-de-Londres, Claret) and some growing exurbs (cantons of Mèze, Gignac). Higher up, in the Larzac and Garrigues, the main town is Lodève, a regional centre for a fairly poor and economically troubled semi-rural region. There is a strong socialist and left-wing tradition in the arrière-pays of the Hérault, which allowed Hollande to win 52.4% here. Marine had won 22.1% here, doing best (28%) in the canton of Mèze but also in the Lodevois; though she did quite poorly in Les Matelles. Hollande performed best in the arrière-pays (Larzac and Lodevois) but lost in the canton of Mèze, which has a fairly amusing political history. The old fourth was a left-leaning seat until the UMP’s Robert Lecou won it for the first time in 2002. In 1988, that seat had elected Frêche, who fell victim to a PS dissident in 1993. In 2007, Lecou won 51.7% in the runoff. In 2008, he lost his seat as mayor of Lodève to the PS. He faces Frédéric Roig, the PS CG for Le Caylar. There's an outside chance the FN qualifies for the runoff (3-way), but Jean-Claude Martinez's dissident candidacy might draw a few FN votes away and make way for a normal 2-way. Yves Pietrasanta, the leader of GE and former Green mayor of Mèze, is running here for GE with the PRG's support. In any case, I have a rather hard time seeing Lecou survive.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Biterrois/Minervois/Vallée de l'Orb/Escandorgue, PS)* Gains Lunas, Clermont-l'Hérault; loses Servian, Pézenas, Florensac. Hollande won 55.1% in this seat, and Marine won 24% in the first round. The right - and the FN - perform best in the lower middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Capestang, Murviel-Les-Béziers (Roujan and Montagnac to a lesser extent). These two cantons are located more in the lowlands around Béziers than in the mountainous regions which make up the most of the seat. In general, the arrière-pays here is solidly left-wing. Hollande broke 60% in three inland cantons. Again, the leftie tradition is old and very strong in this region, which is in good part a fairly poor wine-growing region. This is an old left-wing stronghold, parts of this region having been represented by the PS or PCF since 1958 with only one or two interruptions. The old fifth voted for the right only in 1993. Since 2002 it has been held by the PS' Kléber Mesquida, a locally influential 'baron'. Mesquida faces only testimonial opposition. The FN will probably qualify for a triangulaire but won't be all that super powerful.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Béziers, UMP) A nice and coherent seat which keeps the whole of Béziers together. Sarko won 53.9%, Marine had placed first on April 22 with 27.8%. Béziers has a left-wing or RadSoc past, and at one time the PCF was quite powerful in the region, a core wine-making region. But, economic decline and economic changes (old people, tourism) has shifted the region to the right quite dramatically. Above all, the FN remains very influential in this region, which despite a few resort towns, remains largely lower middle-class, fairly suburbanized and faces major economic problems (unemployment) and has concerns about security and immigration. The FN won 25% in 1997, and allowed the former PS deputy, Alain Barrau, to defeated the UDF incumbent, Raymond Couderc. In 2002 and 2007, Paul-Henri Cugnenc (UMP) was victorious. He took 57.7% in 2007. Since his death in 2007, the seat has been held by Elie Aboud (UMP) who is running again. The runoff will either be a UMP-FN affair (Hollande placed third with 24% in April), with the FN's Guillaume Vouzellaud likely to poll quite strongly. The left here seems quite weak. The FG-PCF candidate is Paul Barbazange, the PS' Dolorès Roqué is only a local councillor. The left could still win in a triangulaire de la mort, like in 1997, but its crop, to me, seems weak.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
7th (Sète/Bassin de Thau/Cap-d'Agde, UMP)* Gains Servian, Pézenas, Florensac but loses Mèze and Frontignan. The new seat is thus largely recentered on Sète, a large harbour and former PCF stronghold in the department. Sarko won 53.5% here, and Marine placed second behind him on April 22 with 26.2%. Sète remains a fairly poor and lower middle-class town, but it has an aging population attracted to the coast and the left has lost strength in the area at a fairly rapid pace. The Cap-d'Agde remains an attractive tourist spot, and is very right-wing, but is surprisingly fairly poor in terms of median income. The FN polled best in Servian, Florensac and Agde. The first two cantons have a large population of downtrodden lower middle-class old WWC/petits blancs who are largely compelled to commute long distances to work. The left held this seat for ages, the right won it in 1993 but the PCF mayor of Sète, François Liberti won it in 1997 and managed to survive in 2002 thanks to a triangulaire with the FN. In 2007, however, the UMP mayor of Agde Gilles d'Ettore defeated Liberti, taking 52.7% in the runoff. The PCF lost the city of Sète, which was its last remaining major city in the department, in 2001. Gilles d'Ettore is running for a second term, and is likely the favourite. The left is weak and divided, the FG's candidate is Sébastien Andral, a local councillor in Sète, while the PS' Sébastien Denaja is a total unknown. The FN, represented by its regional leader France Jamet, will likely make the triangulaire. Like in 2002, it could be fatal for the right, but the left's field is quite weak so I think the right can hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

[Hash]

8th (Frontignan/Pignan/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat is a nice salamander which includes part of the canton of Frontignan, the Montpellier suburban canton of Pignan and Montpellier-10. Hollande won 51.7%, taking 56% in Montpellier-10 and 50.6% in Pignan. He also won Frontignan proper, a fairly blue-collar coastal town. Marine took 23.1% in this constituency, including 29% in the canton of Frontignan and 25% in Pignan. The goal here was likely to create a right-wing constituency, but the seat's first member could very well be a left-winger. The FN will likely qualify for the runoff and this could help the PS candidate, Christian Assaf, of which I know nothing about. The UMP candidate is Arnaud Julien, the departmental president of the UMP and 2007 candidate in the second constituency. I want to write more, but I don't know what to say that without going into details which nobody cares about.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

9th (Mauguio/Lunel/Grande-Motte/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat includes Montpellier-4, a lower middle-class area which is heavily leftie (over 60% for Hollande) and then takes in the canton of Mauguio, including the middle-class suburban city of Mauguio, home to a large Spanish population, the ugly resort town of La Grande-Motte (a UMP stronghold, you guessed it) and the south of the fairly low-income and suburban/exurban canton of Lunel, where the FN is very strong (27%). Overall, Sarko won 51.7% and Marine took a less impressive 22.7%. The UMP candidate in this seat is Stéphan Rossignol, the UMP mayor of La Grande-Motte and regional councillor. His PS opponent is Patrick Vignal, CG for Montpellier-4. The FN's Joseph Castano might qualify for the runoff, but I would not bet heavily on it. In a normal UMP-PS runoff, the UMP would have to be the favourite.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

[Hash]

Haute-Loire
2007: 2 UMP

1st (Yssingelais/Mezenc/Le Puy-est, UMP) Sarko won here with only 50.2% of the vote. Historically, this was a right-wing stronghold, because of its rural nature mixed in with clerical Catholicism. Jacques Barrot, a prominent Christian democrat, represented the area between 1967 and 2004, when he was succeeded by another right-winger of national stature, Laurent Wauquiez (UMP). Wauquiez won by the first round in 2007, with 58.1%. The right performs best in rural areas, but in the troubled and marginalized industrial working-class basin of Yssingeaux (including Aurec-sur-Loire and Sainte-Sigolène) in the north, which is increasingly in the exurban influence of St-Etienne, it has faced tough FN competition for quite some time. Marine won over 22% in this constituency, but peaked at 27-28% in the Yssingelais. The left has been growing because of suburban growth in Le Puy-en-Velay's eastern middle-class suburbs. Usually, the left found strength in the secularized working-class town of Retournac (55% for Hollande in the canton) and in some Protestant spillovers in the canton of Tence. In 2012, Hollande did extremely well (58-60%) in Le Puy's eastern suburbia. Laurent Wauquiez faces a surprisingly tough fight. The PS conceded this seat to EELV, which is backing a regionalist from the POC, Gustave Alirol. However, the dissident candidacy of the PS CG for Aurec-sur-Loire, Guy Vocanson, will likely prove more powerful. The FN's Pierre Cheynet could, in theory, make this a triangulaire but it seems like a remote possibility rather than a likelihood. Wauquiez should win narrowly.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

2nd (Brioude/Le Puy-ouest, UMP) Hollande won 53.2% here, in what has always been the most left-wing constituency in the formerly right-wing stronghold of Haute-Loire. The left's base has always been the secularized working-class town of Brioude and the Brivadois mining basin (Auzon). Hollande won 60% in Brioude proper and 66% in the canton of Auzon. The left's influence has also been quite strong in the Allier valley (Paulhaguet). Again, Le Puy - here the western suburbs - has seen major left-wing gains in recent years, as the outskirts turn into suburbs attractive for middle-class families and the like, less in touch with the conservative traditions of the Velay. The right remains dominant in the Catholic highlands of the Margeride. This seat has usually leaned to the right. It elected a Socialist in... 1967 (and a 1976 by-election) but since 1978 it has been held by the UDF-UMP Jean Proriol. He won 52.6% in 1997 and 53.6% in 2007. He is retiring this year. The UMP candidate is Jean-Pierre Vigier, a local mayor, backed by the UMP CG for Solignac-sur-Loire. The PS' André Chapaveire is a regional councillor, his suppleant is the PS CG for Le Puy-nord. The left stands an historic chance at winning this seat, held only twice since 1958, both for very short period of times.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

[Hash]

Loire
2007: 5 UMP, 2 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Saint-Étienne nord, PS) This seat remains unchanged. Hollande won 56.2% here. This seat includes some poorer and old working-class areas in Saint-Étienne, including the ZUS of Montreynaud in the north of the city or the old miners neighborhood of Outre-Furans. Outside city limits, it includes the old mining villages of Roche-la-Molière, Saint-Genest-Lerpt, Villars or Saint-Jean Bonnefonds. The left retains an edge in some of these cities, but old working-class traditions have started being replaced by white-collar suburban growth. Saint-Étienne is a working-class city, but has never been a solidly left-wing stronghold. It has tended to shift to the left in recent years, Hollande won about 59% in the city. The centrist Christian democratic tradition used to be strong here, represented by the likes of Michel Durafour. Between 1958 and 2007, with the exception of 1981 and 1997, this seat was held by various centrist or UDF deputies. In 1997, the UDF fell victim to a triangulaire with the FN, allowing the PS to win this seat. In 2002, the UDF’s Gilles Artigues reclaimed this seat for the right in a narrow race. However, in 2007, having joined Bayrou’s MoDem, Artigues lost by the first round, placing third with 20.8%. His votes, however, did not help the UMP’s case. In the runoff, the PS’ Régis Juanico won with 52.1%. Juanico faces a rematch with Artigues this year, but this year Artigues benefits from the official endorsement of the UMP. There is some resentment against Artigues in the UMP because, despite his recent return to right-wing roots, in 2008 his candidacy in the local elections in the city led to the defeat of the UMP incumbent, Michel Thiollière. Artigues won the canton of Saint-Étienne-NE-2 in 2008 from the PCF, and his support is crucial for the UMP in the general council. Thiollière, bitter at 2008, is backing a right-wing dissident, Éric Berlivet (CNIP). Artigues is, like Rodolphe Thomas in the Calvados, a strong candidate for the centre-right in a left-leaning seat, but the seat is too left-leaning for him to actually win. Marine won 19.5% here, a strong result but likely not enough to guarantee the FN a spot in a 3-way runoff. The PS should hold on here, without sweating too much.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
2nd (Saint-Étienne sud, PS)* Gains Saint-Étienne-SO-2. Hollande won this entirely stéphanois seat with 57.5%, his best result in the department. This constituency includes some old working-class areas of the city, including former mining neighborhoods in the old faubourgs. Hollande broke 60% in two cantons here. Again, however, this region – despite being traditionally proletarian – has never really been a left-wing stronghold. The second was the Gaullist’ Lucien Neuwirth’s seat between 1958 and 1981. 1981 and 2007 are the only two elections in which the seat has returned a PS member. In 1997, the RPR survived a difficult triangulaire with the FN and won somewhat comfortably in 2002. However, in 2007, longtime UMP incumbent Christian Cabal fell victim to the PS’ Jean-Louis Gagnaire. The PS won over 54% in the runoff. Gagnaire should win a second term easily. The UMP’s candidate is a nobody and there is nobody else of local relevance standing here. Marine won only 17.5% or so here, so the FN, unlike in 1997, will not make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Saint-Chamond/Vallée du Gier, NC) This seat too is left unchanged. The main cities here are Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier in the Gier valley. The Gier valley has historically been a very industrial areas, with a mix of mining throughout the valley but also a big metallurgical/ironworks industry in Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier. The latter remains a very working-class city to this day and is quite economically deprived. Saint-Chamond and Grand-Croix. On the other hand, the canton of Saint-Héand, lying to the north of the stéphanois metropolis, is an affluent middle-class suburb of Saint-Étienne. In political terms, this seat returned only one Socialist since 1958, in 1981. The city of Saint-Chamond, despite its very proletarian nature, was the stronghold of the independents and their leader, Antoine Pinay, who was mayor of the city between 1929 and 1977. Rive-de-Gier is usually more left-wing, having been held by the PCF between 1977 and 1995 but by the right since then. Hollande, however, won 50.1% here, winning the valley cantons (but losing big in Saint-Héand). He actually won Saint-Chamond proper with 54%, Grand-Croix with 59% and Rive-de-Gier with 63%. Marine won 22.8% here, a strong but not exceptional showing, doing best in the non-urban parts of the valley but still taking 23.5% in Saint-Chamond. The seat has been held since 1988 by the UDF-NC’s François Rochebloine, who survived a 1997 triangulaire by over 10 points and won by about 20 points in the 2007 runoff. He is running again but he is in a very precarious position. Despite being backed by the UMP, he is the underdog in a ‘right-wing primary’ against Hervé Reynaud, CG for Saint-Chamond-Nord since 2011 – when he defeated Rochebloine himself, in office since 1989 in that canton, in the cantonal elections. His suppléant is the mayor of Rive-de-Gier. Reynaud is the favourite on the right, but perhaps not overall. The PS has a solid chance with Philippe Kizirian, the new PS mayor of Saint-Chamond since 2008, who benefits from EELV’s support.  With the FN holding a chance to make the runoff, the right divided, it is quite possible that the PS will win here. A triangulaire would likely be fatal for the right, but a traditional PS-right runoff would be more closely divided.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Firminy/Vallée de l’Ondaine, PCD-UMP)* Loses the leftie stronghold of Saint-Étienne-SO-2, but gains Saint-Bonnet-le-Château, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert and Saint-Jean-Soleymieux. Most of the constituency is in the suburban or exurban influence of Saint-Étienne and its area. Hollande won 50.9% here, despite a redistricting clearly aimed at favouring the right. The core left-wing strongholds here are Firminy and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. These two cantons are the old core of Loire mining basin, with the cities of Firminy, La Ricamarie and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. Hollande won 58% in the canton of Firminy and 61% in the canton of Chambon-Feuguerolles, which, complemented by 55% in Saint-Jean-Soleymieux and 51% in Bourg-Argental, explain his victory here. In general, the other suburban areas (Saint-Genest-Mailfaux, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert) – more affluent – lean to the right pretty strongly (except from small textile towns). The addition of Saint-Bonnet-le-Château and Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert really shore up the right, Hollande would have won the old constituency by a solid margin. The PCF has traditionally been strong in the cantons of Firminy and Chambon-Feuguerolles. The PCF held Firminy between 1971 and 2001 and again since 2008. La Ricamarie also has a PCF mayor. The old constituency  usually alternated between right and PCF. The PCF won in 1962, 1972, 1981, 1988 and 1997. In 1997, the PCF benefited from a triangulaire with the FN to win the seat. Since 2002, however, the seat has been held by Dino Cinieri, a member of the PCD. He won narrowly in 2002 and again in 2007 (51.6% against the PS, PCF at 12.9%). In 2008, Cinieri, mayor of Firminy between 2001 and 2008, lost his seat to the PCF’s Marc Petit. Cinieri can benefit from new boundaries, but he is still in a tough spot. The PS took the stupid decision to endorse EELV here, so it likely means that Christian Faverjon, the PCF mayor of Unieux, will be the main leftie candidate. Marine won 24% here and the FN can perhaps make the runoff, like in 1997. Another daring call (if only because I have a weird kind of psephological appreciation for seeing old PCF strongholds return to their old roots…)
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
5th (Roanne, UMP)* Loses Saint-Germain-Laval but gains Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay. The new fifth basically covers the whole north of the department, centered on the old textile and blue-collar town of Roanne. Sarko won 51.5% here, losing to Hollande in both cantons of Roanne and the city proper, but generally prevailing the rural/suburban cantons. There used to be a strong left-wing tradition, still kicking in local elections, in Charlieu or La Pacaudière, but these fairly poor small-town areas, where the FN does pretty well (21.3% overall in the constituency for Marine), have shifted to the right. Politically, the PS used to be fairly strong if not dominant here. Between 1977 and 2001, Roanne was ruled by Jean Auroux, a PS cabinet minister. The PS held the seat between 1978 and 1993, when the UDF’s Yves Nicolin won this seat and has held it since. In 2007, he won very narrowly with 50.7% against Laure Deroche, who in 2008 toppled Nicolin from Roanne city hall. This year is another contest between Deroche and Nicolin, in which the FN might – but probably won’t – be the referee. Deroche is boosted by her local base since 2008 as mayor of Roanne, but the redistricting here has generally favoured the right as the weight of Roanne has become less important. There is an AC candidacy backed by the CNIP which might hurt the right a bit. I don’t know where to place this exactly without having my ear on the ground, but…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

6th (Montbrison/Feurs/Monts du Forez, UMP)* Loses Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay, gains Saint-Germain-Laval, Noiretable, Boen, Saint-Georges-en-Couzan and Montbrison. Feurs and Montbrison are the two main towns here. Sarko won 54.9%, his best in the department. Indeed, except for what I think is a working-class basin around Boen and Noirétable, this is a predominantly rural and small-town type of constituency, with a strong clerical Catholic tradition and Christian democratic political orientation. Saint-Galmier, Feurs, Montbrison and Chazelles-sur-Lyon are fairly affluent cantons, Saint-Galmier being in the suburban influence of Saint-Étienne. These areas have never elected a left-wing deputy since 1958, and 2012 probably won’t be the year. The PS has a good candidate in Liliane Faure, the new CG/mayor of Montbrison, but the UMP incumbent, Paul Salen (CG for Saint-Galmier. The race might be close, and the FN – 22% for Marine – could play a role (but I don’t think they’ll make the runoff), but in the end I guess the right will pull through.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

[Hash]

Ardennes
2007: 2 UMP, 1 PS
 
1st (Charleville sud/Rethel, UMP) Sarko won about 51% in this seat. But this seat, like the third, has a stark political divide between rural and urban. This seat takes in part of Charleville-Mézières, a poor working-class town and traditional PS stronghold. It also includes the cantons of Villers-Semeuse and Flize. Hollande won 63% in the canton of Mézières Est, which includes a big ZUS, and 55% in Villers-Semeuse (the town proper is home to an auto factory) and 52% in Flize (Nouvion-sur-Meuse is a working-class town). He also won in Signy-le-Petit, a small industrial canton on the border with the Aisne. On the other hand, the rest of the constituency – rural, largely poor (except for Rethel and some cantons like Juniville on the border with the Marne, fairly affluent and integrated with Reims) and small townish, is solidly conservative. Sarko won less than 55% in only two ‘rural’ cantons (Rethel, which isn’t rural, and Signy-l’Abbaye). Since 1981, this seat has been a bellwether, electing Socialists in 81, 88 and 97 but right-wingers in 93, 02 and 07. In 1997, Claudine Ledoux, who became the PS mayor of Charleville in 2001, won thanks to a triangulaire with the FN but was defeated by the UMP’s Bérengère Poletti in 2002 and again in 2007 (Poletti won 54% in 2002, and 59.5% in 2007). This year’s rematch opposes Poletti, who was defeated by Ledoux in her bid to win the longtime PS stronghold of Charleville in 2008, and Ledoux. Ledoux originally wanted to run in the second, but when the PS candidate here was declared ineligible, she was compelled to run here. The race will be close, and the FN – strong in this marginalized, rural and declining region (24.7% for Marine) will likely make the runoff, and could, as in 1997, ruin matters for the right. Given the triangulaire factor and the bellwether political history…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Charleville nord/Vallée de la Meuse, PS) This seat, which gave 56.8% to Hollande, is a left-wing stronghold.  It includes part of Charleville, its more affluent suburbs (right-leaning), some rural areas (right-leaning) but above all declining industrial areas in the Meuse valley. The towns of Bogny, Monthermé, Revin, Givet or Vireux-Molhain were driven by metallurgy, while there was a big slate mining industry in Fumay. Hollande won 64.5% in the canton of Nouzonville, 61.5% in Monthermé, 65.6% in Revel, 59% in Fumay and 59.6% in Givet. Between 1967 and today, the right won this seat once – in 1993. The PCF has held this seat, but it is not as powerful as the PS. Since 1997, it has been held by Philippe Vuilque, the PS mayor of Revin. He won 53.2% in 2002 and 51.5% in 2007. This should be a safe leftie seat, but the contest is quite interesting this year.  Vuilque, a fairly useless deputy who is contested within his own party, was defeated in the PS internal primary but is running as a dissident. The PS candidate is Christophe Léonard, the PS CG for Charleville-Centre. The UMP, which had improved on its 2002 result in 2007, is not to be counted out entirely. Its candidate, Boris Ravignon, defeated in 2007, UMP CG for Charleville-La Houillère is a strong candidate. While the UMP winning this seat would be a monumental upset and remains quite unlikely (especially so if the FN qualifies, Marine won 24.2% but abstention is high here, so it is likely to be shut out), he likely hopes to benefit from the left’s division.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left (Vuilque?) favoured
 
3rd (Sedan, UMP) Hollande won 50.2%, thanks almost entirely to his domination in the industrial basin of Sedan, which has always been the left’s main bastion in this constituency (alongside the small town of Vouziers). On the other hand, Sarkozy remained by far the strongest in the rural areas of this constituency, a continuation of the very conservative champenois countryside in the Marne (though certainly not as comparatively wealthy). The former PS mayor of Sedan, Jean-Paul Bachy, now president of the CR, won this seat in 1988 but following his defeat in 1993 the left has yet to regain this seat, which it had previously won in 1967 (with the PSU) and in 1981. Since 1995, it has been held by Jean-Luc Warsmann, mayor of Douzy and unsuccessful UMP candidate in the 2010 regionals. He won reelection by the first round in 2002 and 2007. In 2007, he took 57.5% against 24.7% for Bachy in the first round. Though the FN – Marine won 24.6% here – could make the runoff, Warsmann is safe. The PS nominated some nobody after neither Bachy nor the PS mayor of Sedan wanted to run.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

[Hash]

Aisne
2007: 2 PS, 2 UMP, 1 DVG
 
1st (Laon, DVG) Hollande won 54.9% here, boosted by a nearly 58% result in Laon, a fairly working-class city which is one of the main cities in the Aisne and certainly the big town in this constituency. Otherwise, most of the constituency lives under the influence of Laon, or, in the canton of Neufchatel-sur-Aisne, Reims. Once again, except for some middle-class suburban communes outside Laon or near Reims, this is a poor, economically and demographically declining region. The FN does fairly well here, especially outside of Laon. Marine won 25% here, a good second behind Hollande and ahead of Sarko (23.5%). Traditionally a proletarian region, the left has usually had the upper hand in this region. Laon has nonetheless elected right-wing mayors since 1989. Save for 1993, the left has held this seat since 1973. Since 1988, again with the exception of 1993, the deputy here has been René Dosière (PS), who won won his seat back easily in 1997 and held on without too much trouble in 2002 and 2007. Dosière is a well-known whistleblower whose big issue is public finances and especially spending by the President. In 2007, Dosière had lost the PS nomination to Fawaz Karimet, but he defeated the official PS candidate in the first round (25.1% vs 20.2%) and soundly defeated the right in the runoff. Dosière, a popular incumbent, was once again denied the PS nomination this year – because he refused to acquiesce to the PS’ choice of a suppléant. He is thus running, once again, as a dissident of sorts against Karimet, CG for Laon-Nord who is again the official PS candidate. But it appears as if Dosière and the PS agreed to this matter of things so that he could retain an image of political independence and retain credibility in his watchdog role. He is backed unofficially by a lot of Socialists, officially by the PRG. The UMP is backing some NC local councillor in Laon, and the FN will likely make it to the runoff – either in a duel against Dosière or in a three-way fight with the UMP included. Dosière will probably win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Saint-Quentin/Vermandois, UMP) Hollande won 52.6% here. The seat is centered on the industrial basin of Saint-Quentin, which is a traditionally blue-collar city in which Hollande won 54%. The city’s suburbs are also fairly middle-class and a bit more affluent than the rest of the department. It is still an economically depressed and demographically stagnant region, especially up north in the canton of Le Catelet. But the Saint-Quentinois agglomeration’s dominance in this constituency makes it a bit more ‘privileged’ if you wish than the other constituencies in this department. Sarko placed second behind Hollande, Marine won a fairly ‘poor’ third place by local standards with 24.9%, and didn’t do great in Saint-Quentin and its inner suburbs. The city of Saint-Quentin has alternated between PCF and Gaullists since 1977, since 1995 it has been held by the right, in the person of Senator Pierre André and now in the person of Xavier Bertrand, former cabinet minister and a political of national renown. The PCF held this seat between 1973 and 1993, and the PS won it in 1997 (the PCF placed a poor third). In 2002, Xavier Bertrand defeated PS incumbent Odette Grzegrzulka with 57% in the runoff. Having built a national image (which is generally positive for him), a local network; he won by the first round in 2007 with 53.3%. His list easily won the 2008 local elections in Saint-Quentin. Bertrand definitely has a personal vote, and this should help him survive this tough spell. The PS candidate, Anne Ferreira, a regional councillor, doesn't seem to measure up, and the FN, while it could probably make a triangulaire, won't be enough to kill the UMP here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Thiérache, PS^) Hollande won 53.1% in this constituency, which covers about all of the Thiérache region in the northeast of the department. This is a poor and proletarian region, half-rural (not really rural but more a bastard region of small towns with old working-class populations who are forced to work in bigger towns…) and small townish around the small industrial centres of Hirson, Vervins, Guise, Marles or Bohain-en-Vermandois. It is an economically depressed, poor and demographically declining region.The Thiérache is a bocage region, of dispersed habitat, known for its individualism and agrarian radicalism. Traditionally, this has been a left-wing stronghold, because of its solidly working-class and proletarian background. The left remains dominant in the small industrial centres, notably Hirson or Guise. The socio-economic makeup of the region, however, has made it perfect territory for the FN. Marine Le Pen came out on top over Hollande with 27.9%, and broke 30% in a few cantons. The PS has held this seat since 1967, with Maurice Brugnon between 1967 and 1981, and with Jean-Pierre Balligand since 1981. He was one of the few PS survivors of 1993, and won easily in the last three elections – though his 53% in 2007 was very weak… He is retiring this year, and the PS’ Jean-Louis Bricout, mayor of Bohain-en-Vermandois, is the favourite to succeed him. The UMP is aligning Frédéric Meura, the same candidate as in 2007, who is the CG for La Capelle. However, Sarko placed third here, and there’s a good risk that the runoff could end up being a PS-FN affair. The PS should hold on easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Soissons/Tergnier, PG^) Hollande won here with 53.6%, propelled in large part by a huge win in the cite cheminote of Tergnier (66.6%), but also by a narrower win in the old working-class town of Chauny (canton: 53%). Sarko won Soissons and did fairly well in its more middle-class suburbs. This is an economically depressed and somewhat marginalized region, which is increasingly drawn to larger regional and national urban centres, though not as much as the fifth. The left has held this seat since 1973, with the exception of 1993. In 1997, Jacques Desallangre, the chevènementiste mayor of Tergnier, easily gained this seat from the right after having outpaced the PS in the first round. In 2002, having left the MDC, he won with 54.6%, becoming the sole chevènementiste to win reelection. In 2007, he won with 54.6% again. In both 2002 and 2007, he defeated PS candidates in the first round. In 2007, the PS won 16.2% against his 26.2%. The FN still won 8.3% in 2007, and Marine won all of 26.4% in this constituency. Desallangre, who later joined the PG, is retiring this year. The result has been a very amusing sh**tfest of lefties vying for the seat. Desallangre is backing his assistant Frédéric Alliot, a PG dissident who has received the PRG's support (I think the PRG, for some reason, had backed Desallangre in 2007). Alliot is a local councillor in Soissons. On the other hand, the FG's candidate is Jean-Luc Lanouilh, the PCF CG for Chauny whose suppleant is the PCF CG for Soissons-Sud. The PS, finally, is supporting Marie-Françoise Bechtel, a high ranking member of the MRC. The left has three candidates (+ a Greenie, and the Trot jokers), while the right seems to be backing Charles-Edouard Law de Lauriston, a PRV local mayor. The FN's Evelyne Ruelle will probably make the runoff in a form or another, but it could be hurt by low turnout and the unpredictable nature of this mess. A mess indeed. The left's division into three candidates of fairly equal strength, imo, means that there's an outside chance - not big but not insignificant either - that it could be eliminated from the runoff altogether, and result in a fluke UMP-FN runoff which the right would win (in a seat held by the left!). A triangulaire with the UMP, FN and the top leftie is perhaps more likely; or maybe a leftie-FN runoff. After all, Sarko won only 22.7% here, his lowest result in the Aisne, and the FN vote here certainly isn't going to vote UMP en masse. I think the 'left' pulls it out, but which one of three wins is up for grabs. Alliot could potentially be strong in Tergnier and Soisson, while the FG prevails in Chauny. I don't know how strong of a candidate the MRC's Bechtel is. Fun times ahead!
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left

5th (Château-Thierry/Tardenois/Brie, UMP) This seat covers the far south of the department, far more integrated in the Parisian basin than in "la Picardie profonde". Indeed, a lot of the population here commutes long distances to work in Ile-de-France/Paris, which makes this region an extension of the neighboring "periurbain lointain" found in eastern Seine-et-Marne. This is also a "periurbain subi" - lower middle-classes, not too affluent, lots of lower-level private sector employees forced out of the big city, by a mish-mash of feelings about immigration/criminality but above all property prices. Prime FN territory. Marine won 27.5%, with Sarko in second place (25.3%). Sarko won 51.7% in the runoff. He won the exurban territory, but lost decisively (56-44) in Château-Thierry, more industrial and left-leaning. This region has usually been the most right-leaning of the Aisne, in the past due to the dominance of large agricultural properties. Between 1958 and 1981 and again 1988 and 1994, this seat was held by André Rossi, the right-wing Radical former mayor of Château-Thierry. The left won it only once, in 1981. In 1997, Renaud Dutreil narrowly defeated Dominique Jourdain, the PS mayor of Château-Thierry in a triangulaire. In 2007, the UMP's Isabelle Vasseur won with 54% in the runoff against Jourdain. This year, Vasseur faces tough competition not only from the FN, which will certainly make the runoff, but also from the left. But the left is divided. The PS is backing Jacques Krabal, the PRG mayor/CG for Château-Thierry since 2008, but his candidacy is not well received by the local PS. Dominique Jourdain, who ran for the PS in every election except 2002, is running again, for EELV. Jourdain had lost the 2008 local elections to Krabal. I don't know what impact the left's division will have on matters here, especially in the runoff. There's an outside chance that, like in 2002, the left finds itself shut out of the runoff - Hollande placed third here on April 22. But there's also a chance that a triangulaire with the left could prove fatal for the right.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

[Hash]

Plan of attack:

I'll complete all/most of Fab's interesting departments and others of personal interest to me - notably the big ones (Nord, Rhone, all of IDF time permitting). That should take up about most of the remaining days. Oise is next on the list, then I'll try to get a headstart on IDF (covering frontiste sh**tholes is getting tedious and depressing)

On Saturday June 9, I'll post a complete map with my "calls" for all constituencies, including those which won't have write ups. It's unfortunate I won't do all departments, but life sucks.

[Hash]

For my own pleasure, and to take up all of my "free time"

Corse-du-Sud

1st (Ajaccio/Vallée de la Gravona, CSD-DVG) This seat covers Ajaccio, except for Ajaccio-6, and the rural areas inland, including the Vallée de la Gravona and the Gulf of Porto. It is fairly stupid to use presidential election results to predict any other elections on the island, but Sarko won 55.4% here. In the first round, Le Pen took 25.9% here, taking over 30% in the lower-income cantons in downtown Ajaccio but also the fairly nationalist areas inland (Celavo-Mezzana, Cruzini-Cinarca, 48.8% and 48.7% for the 2 nationalist lists in 2010). The nationalist vote is the main reason why those who use presidential results to predict other elections on the island are, to put it bluntly, idiots. Since 2002, this seat has been held by Simon Renucci, leader of the 'Corse social democrate' centre-left party and a former close ally of Lionel Jospin. Renucci. Between 1988 and 2002, the seat had been held by the liberal José Rossi, who was president of the CG and later president of the assembly. He had staged an ephemeral alliance with Marc Marcangeli, the Bonapartist mayor of Ajaccio between 1994 and 2002, which broke up in 2000 and was patched up in 2002. Rossi won in 1997, with 52.2% in the runoff against Renucci. In 2002, however, countercyclical with the rest of the country (obviously, it's Corsica), Renucci defeated Rossi with 57.1% in the runoff. In 2001, Renucci defeated Marcangeli in Ajaccio, ending a Bonapartist (yes, in 2001!) stranglehold on local politics since the 1870s. In 2007, Renucci won by a narrower margin, with 54.3% in the runoff. In 2008, Renucci easily won a second term as mayor over a very divided local right. He is running again this year, facing Laurent Marcangeli, UMP CG for Ajaccio-1 who is probably the son of the former DVD-Bonapartist mayor. Paul-Antoine Luciani, the perennial candidate of the PCF here, is running again, having seen his votes shrink from about 13% to 5.5% between 1997 and 2007. Renucci should win easily, but this being Corsica, I guess, nothing is ever safe.
ETA: indeed, Corsica is being Corsican. A poll shows Marcangeli beating Renucci. I'll lower the ratings down.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge

2nd (Porto-Vecchio/Sartène/Bonifacio, UMP) This seat includes Porto-Vecchio, Bonifacio, Sartène, Propriano, Zicavo and Baselicata, among others. Sarko won 59.5% here, winning every major city, including 61% in Porto-Vecchio. The town of Porto-Vecchio has dominated politically in this seat, or, rather, the Rocca Serra dynasty has dominated. Indeed, the town of Porto-Vecchio has, since 1803, been the dynastic stronghold of the right-wing Rocca Serra clan. Between 1922 and 1943, the town was ruled by Camille de Rocca Serra, a right-wing deputy during the Third Republic. Between 1950 and 1997 it was the stronghold of Jean-Paul de Rocca Serra, RPR deputy for this constituency between 1962 and 1998. His son, Camille de Rocca Serra, governed the town between 1997 and 2005 and is currently a local councillor in the governing municipal majority. In 1993, the runoff here opposed Jean-Paul to his distant cousin Denis de Rocca-Serra. In 1997, Jean-Paul won a triangulaire against the 'cuz Denis and Dominique Bucchini, the PCF mayor of Sartène and notable opponent of political violence and enemy of the nationalists. JP won 34.9% against 33.3% for Denis and 31.8% for Bucchini. In 2002, Camille, the son, came out on top of a divided first round, with only 17% against 15.5% for a former ally of Denis, 15.3% for the UMP incumbent (Roland Francisci, deputy since JP died in 1998), 13.1% for Bucchini and 10.3% for Jérôme Polverini. Camille won 57.5% in the runoff. In 2007, he won 51% in the first round against 14.5% for Jean-Christophe Angelini, a moderate nationalist, and 13% for Bucchini. Since then, things have changed. Rocca Serra was defeated in the 2010 regionals, and in his own town of Porto-Vecchio, Angelini's moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica) came out on top ahead of the Rocca Serrian UMP. In the constituency as a whole, he took 33.8% against 26.9% for the Simeoni-Angelini tandem and 28.5% for Giacobbi's left-wing alliance. In 2011, Angelini defeated Camille in the race for the canton of Porto-Vecchio, taking about 53% in the runoff. This year's race will be one that I will be watching very closely. Camille de Rocca-Serra faces Jean-Christophe Angelini, the local leader of the moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica), regional councillor and of course CG. The left is divided between Dominique Bucchini, who is now president of the assembly of Corsica, and Paul-Marie Bartoli, the mayor of Propriano who is backed by the PS, the PRG and CSD. The radical nationalists, Corsica Libera, are fairly weak here, so Paul Quastana shouldn't trouble Angelini much. A poll out a few months ago showed Angelini winning a three-way runoff against Bucchini and Rocca Serra. I don't know how strong Angelini can do outside of Porto-Vecchio, where he can likely dominate. But Bucchini seems quite bent on defeating the UMP and has good relations at a personal level with Angelini, and the left usually tends to vote for the moderate nationalists over the UMP. Angelini winning would compensate for about any other bad result in the rest of the country.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle do sound like good ideas, so I'll go there tomorrow.

[Hash]

Just as I posted that on Corse-du-Sud, a poll comes out which shows Marcangeli beating Renucci with 51.5% in the runoff. Corsica would be so.... Corsican if it had the UMP seat go to the left/regionalists and the leftie seat go to the right

That being said, every election since 1997 (if not 1988 or 1993) has had one or more seat going against the tide: left > right in 1997, right > left in 2002, left > right in 2007. There's gotta be one of those this year.

[Hash]

Meurthe-et-Moselle
2007: 4 UMP, 3 PS
 
1st (Nancy/Saint-Max/Malzéville, PRV-UMP)* This seat gains Saint-Max and Seichamps. It takes in the bulk of Nancy, save for the canton of Nancy-ouest, and its western suburbs (Malzéville, Saint-Max, Seichamps etc). Hollande won 53.7% here, and the trend is to the left. Nancy, a fairly bourgeois white-collar city, has traditionally been a right-wing city – it has been governed by the right since 1945 at least – but it is shifting to the left quite dramatically. Hollande won 55% in the city, and even more in the part of the city included here given that he won the three urban cantons included in this seat with anywhere between 56% and 60% (in the canton including the ZUS of the Haut-du-Lièvre, where Nadine Morano is from…). Saint-Max and Malzéville proper are middle-class suburbs, increasingly attractive for young families, while the rest of the canton includes politically marginally but otherwise quite affluent residential suburbs. Boosted by the old centre-right bastion of Nancy, the right has historically been dominant in the old first. The left won this seat only once, in 1997. That year, the PS defeated the longtime UDF incumbent, André Rossinot, mayor of Nancy, with a very narrow 127 vote victory. In 2002, Rossinot’s dauphin, the Radical Laurent Hénart won back the seat with 54.3% in the runoff, in 2007 he won reelection with a tiny 50.8%. Marleix’s scissors did not turn to the right’s advantage in this constituency, and Hénart is quite weakened. He faces the PS’ Chaynesse Khirouni, a local councillor in Nancy. Marine won only 15.3% here and the FN will not be a significant presence. In a straight left-right runoff, Hénart, while not a bad candidate or incumbent, finds himself as the underdog.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
                                                                                     
2nd (Nancy/Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy/Laxou, PS)* Gains Laxou and Nancy-Ouest, loses Saint-Max, Seichamps, Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency includes the canton of Nancy-Ouest, a bourgeois canton which was the city’s only canton to vote for Sarko (with 51%), the affluent suburban canton of Laxou, the poor working-class suburb of Jarville-la-Malgrange and the somewhat gentrified but still largely low-income inner suburb/cité populaire of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy. Hollande won 53% here, winning by a short edge in Laxou and the canton of Jarville-la-Malgrange (though he took 56% in the chef-lieu of that canton) and 54% and 63.5% in the two cantons of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy (58% overall). Marine won only 13.4% of the vote, doing well only in Jarville-la-Malgrange proper. The borders have changed a lot, but in the old second, the right was usually dominant. The left won the old constituency only thrice, in 1981, 1997 and 2007. In 2007, with the right’s Gérard Léonard, longtime incumbent, retiring, the PS’ Hervé Feron took this seat with 50.7% in the runoff. The redistricting has added two cantons from the old third, which was eliminated. The old third, held by the right since 1988 (but by only 13 votes in 1997…), was won in 2007 by the young UMP rising star of sorts, Valérie Rosso-Debord, who has (had?) a bright future promised to her as one of those fairly good-looking middle-aged right-wing women attack dogs. The redistricting shafted her – I wonder why Marleix did this – into this seat, more left-leaning (though it is notionally right-wing, on 2007 results, by a hair). The race is a fairly interesting contest between Hervé Feron (who is mayor of Tomblaine, now outside this seat) and Rosso-Debord. Féron should win here, unfortunately for her ambitions.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left
 
3rd (Pays Haut/Longwy/Briey, PS)* The old third is gone, the new third is the old seventh. Compared to the old seventh, it only gains the canton of Briey. Hollande won 58.9% here. This is left-wing country, the well-known Pays Haut. The cause, being, of course, the bassin sidérurgique lorrain – Lorraine’s iron country. Longwy, Villerupt, Briey, Tucquegnieux, Herserange, Hussigny-Godbrange, Briey and Mont-Saint-Martin are some of the most famous industrial iron mine/ironworks towns in the Pays Haut. This region has a very strong left-wing – socialist or communist – tradition, the result of religious secularization but also because a lot of the original workers came from abroad – notably Italy and Poland – Longwy has a significant Italian-ancestry population, and the influence is perceptible if you look at the names of old PCF deputies here. The PCF, indeed, retains strength in this area. All but two (Longwy, held by a DVG; and Longuyon, held by a DVD) of the constituency’s seven cantons are held by the PCF. Mélenchon won 18.3% here, including 24% in Villerupt and Herserange. The FN is quite weak in the Longwy basin: only 19-20% for Marine this year, for an overall result of 21.6% in the constituency (BUT ALL TEH COMMIE OUVRIERS VOTE FN!!!111). The left has held this seat since about 1978, with the sole interruption of 2002. The PCF’s votes allowed the PS to hold on here in 1993. But in 2002, poor transfers from the PCF (19%) allowed the UMP’s Édouard Jacque to narrowly gain this seat. The PS’ Christian Eckert regained the old seventh in 2007, with 53.1% in the runoff. The PCF still took 18.5% in the first round. Jacque won the traditionally left-wing stronghold of Longwy in the 2008 locals, which might be a fluke. But he is not running this year, and the UMP’s candidate is the former departmental boss of the Jeunes Pop and is apparently a stupid hack. The main contest will probably be on the left, between Eckert (PS, mayor of Trieux and incumbent) and the FG candidate, Serge de Carli, the PCF CG/mayor of Mont-Saint-Martin whose suppléant is the PCF CG for Briey. The FN will probably not come close to qualifying for the runoff. I think the PS should win, but a FG upset is not out of the question, especially with such a good candidate.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
4th (Lunéville/Bayon/Tomblaine, UMP)* Gains Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency covers the southeast of the department, around the old military (and somewhat working-class) town of Lunéville but also extending into Nancy’s suburbs – Tomblaine or Saint-Nicolas-de-Port. This region, influenced by the old military-nationalist tradition and the Catholic influence perceptible along the border with Moselle, has usually leaned to the right. Sarko won narrowly, with 50.6% on May 6. He lost in Lunéville by a short margin. The left usually finds its strength here in Tomblaine – a new addition to the constituency – which is a very working-class suburb of Nancy and in working-class communities along the Meurthe (Saint-Nicolas-de-Port, Damelevières). Le Pen won 25.5% here – first place while Sarko placed third, her best result in the constituency, doing especially well (26-31% of the vote) in the more isolated and rural/distant exurban/ouvrier caché cantons. The left won only once here, in 1988, but did come 9 votes short in 1997 against the RPR. The right returned in 2002 and held on easily in 2007, with 57.9%. The redistricting likely makes it marginally more left-leaning, but not by a lot. The UMP incumbent here since 2007, Jacques Lamblin, faces an EELV-PS candidate, Marie-Neige Houchard (who I think has no political mandate). The FN will likely feature in a triangulaire. I am not sure of how to evaluate this race. The UMP incumbent is the mayor of Lunéville, so he can likely do pretty well there, and the left’s candidate being from EELV rather than some PS dude is not a swell idea to win a seat like this. The Greenie could certainly win, more fluke-ishly than anything else, in a triangulaire, but for now I guess the right will hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
                           
5th (Toul, UMP) This seat is the only not affected by the redistricting. It covers the west of the department, centered on the industrial basin of Toul, which is also an old military city. Sarko won his best result here, with 52.8%. Hollande won a single canton, Neuves-Maison, whose namesake is an old ironworks town, but which is more and more a middle-class suburban canton for Nancy – like a lot of the constituency, which lives almost entirely in the suburban and exurban influence of Nancy or Toul. Le Pen won 24.7%, placing third. The seat has usually been a right-wing stronghold, but the left won here in 1988 (defeating a longtime incumbent and former cabinet minister) and 1997. In 2002, the PS incumbent Nicole Feidt, despite having won the city of Toul from the right in 2001, fell victim to the young UMP contender… Nadine Morano, who won 56.3%. In 2007, Morano won with a ‘small’ 52.8% in the runoff after a very strong first round result. Morano is a moron, a talentless hack whose only strength is her ability to be a formidably loyal Sarkozyst frontline attack dog and pathological liar. On the ground, she seems to be an active deputy who makes constant use of vulgar populism and cultivates the image of an uneducated redneck. Her strength and profile did not prevent her from badly losing in her 2008 attempt to topple the PS in Toul. This year, she seems fairly threatened, and the likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN weakens her standing. She faces, on the left, Dominique Potier, the PS mayor of Lay-Saint-Rémy. I’m pessimistic, but I think Moron-o could narrowly hang on. I wouldn’t put it past her to go on a fascist-fest to appease FN voters.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
6th (Pont-à-Mousson/Homécourt, PS)* Gains Pompey and loses Briey. Hollande won 56.4% in this seat, which stretches from the iron mine cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (both held by the PCF) to some older industrial cantons including Pont-à-Mousson, Dieulouard or Pompey (in the suburban vicinity of Nancy, Maxéville and Champigneulles are working-class communities). The left is dominant, of course, in the cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (70% and 61% for Hollande) but also in Pompey (58%). Hollande narrowly won the canton of Dieulouard and the city of Pont-à-Mousson proper, whose ‘histoire sidérurgique’ ended quite some time ago. The left has been on top here since the 1970s. The sixth constituency in its former shape has been represented by the PS’ Jean-Yves Le Déaut since 1988 – who even survived the 1993 disaster. He won with around 58% in 2002 and 2007, and with 63% in 1997. He will win easily this year again, facing only testimonial UMP opposition which will be made even weaker in the case of a triangulaire with the FN – Marine won 24.3% here, Sarko won 20.5%.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

[Hash]

Moselle
2007: 8 UMP, 2 PS
 
1st (Metz/Woippy/Rombas, UMP^)* Gains Rombas and a tiny slice of infra-urban Metz-3 (quartier Nouvelle Ville, a fairly middle-class and bobo-type area, afaik), but loses all of Metz-1. The result is something which is not that nice. Including the old iron basin of Rombas/Hagondange/Marange-Silvange/Maizières-les-Metz/Talange, the low-income working poor suburb of Woippy, some more middle-class and right-leaning suburbs and a weird slice of a Metz canton. Hollande won 52.3% here, boosted by Metz but above all by the town of Woippy itself (59%), Rombas, Talange or Marange-Silvange. Sarko won the more affluent suburbs. This seat is vacated by François Grosdidier (UMP, mayor of Woippy), who won this seat from the PS in 2002 and became Senator last year. He won 52.4% under the old boundaries in 2007, in 1997 he had been victim of a triangulaire with the FN. Marine won 21.9% here, doing very well in the canton of Rombas and in Woippy proper. This year, the situation is a bit weird. There is no incumbent, the seat is notionally UMP, but the PS is the party to beat here. The PS candidate is Aurélie Filipetti, the new minister of culture, who won the 8th constituency in 2007 (which included Rombas), but who found herself shafted with the elimination of the eight. The media gnomes think this is a very tough race, but I doubt the UMP's candidate, Julien Freyburger, a local councillor who got his ass handed to him in the cantonals last year, is a 'strong candidate'. Especially when there's a chance that the FN can make the triangulaire here. Maybe I say this because I have a soft side for Filipetti, who's kinda hot by politician standards
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

2nd (Montigny-lès-Metz/Metz-Borny, UMP) This constituency is unchanged. It is another fairly atrocious constituency which reaches into Metz' east side (Metz-4, a fairly populaire canton with the Borny ZUS, 53.6% Hollande) and then includes parts of the weird canton of Montigny-lès-Metz which is made up of three non-contiguous enclaves - this includes two of these 'enclaves' including the chef-lieu, Montigny-lès-Metz, a lower middle-class/middle-class suburb right outside Metz; the affluent canton of Verny and the middle-class suburban canton of Ars-sur-Moselle (whose chef-lieu is a leftist bastion: old iron town). Sarko took 54.5%, and Marine won a fairly poor 20.3%. He narrowly won in Montigny-lès-Metz, rumped in the whole of Verny and narrowly won in the canton of Ars-sur-Moselle. The UMP' Denis Jacquat has held this seat since 1988, surviving a triangulaire with the FN in 1997. In 2007, he won 55.9%. This year, he faces Jean-Michel Toulouze, the PS CG for Metz-2 whose suppleant is the CG for Ars-sur-Moselle. In a 1981 case, the PS could win here without it being too shocking, but I don't think the left is in such a favourable position at this juncture. Jacquat should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

3rd (Metz-centre/Vigy/Panze, UMP)* This canton gains Metz-1, but loses part of Metz-3 (Nouvelle Ville). It thus includes almost all of Metz except for Nouvelle Ville and the whole of Metz-4, in addition to one enclave of the awful canton of Montigny-lès-Metz (including, notably, the very affluent suburb of Saint-Julien-lès-Metz) and the two fairly well-off middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Vigny and Pange. Sarko won 52.5% here, likely a short margin due to Metz - which he lost fairly narrowly. Metz has usually been a right-wing city - the right governed the city 'since 1848' (according to journalists of doubtful credibility), until 2008 when the right's division between the incumbent maverick Jean-Marie Rausch, the MoDem's Nathalie Griesbeck   and the UMP's Marie-Jo Zimmermann allowed the PS' Dominique Gros to win the city handily. Otherwise, Sarko did well in the rest of the suburban cantons. Le Pen won 19.9% overall, her lowest result in the department. The left has never won this seat. Since 1998 it has been held by Marie-Jo Zimmermann (UMP) who won 51% by the first round in 2007. With a triangulaire not very likely, and the PS' candidate (Christiane Pallez) being a low-key local councillor, she should win another term with much ease.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

4th (Plateau Lorrain/Sarrebourg, UMP)* Gains Grostenquin. Sarko won 63.3% in this solidly right-wing, rural seat. Only the canton of Delme is a bit more suburban, though Sarrebourg is the main regional centre in this constituency and has its own 'sphere of influence'. In demographic terms, this seat is poor and working-class - we've found the ouvriers cachés! Indeed, the UMP's main rivals here nowadays tend to be the FN - Marine won 28.4% - a bit less than 2 points behind Sarko and way ahead of Hollande (18%). In political terms, the battle in this largely clerical and Catholic region used to be between Christian democrats and Gaullists - which also reflected a deep divide between the Germanophone cantons and the Francophone cantons, the former being more favourable to Christian democrats. Between 1968 and 1988, this seat was the impregnable stronghold of the Gaullist Pierre Messmer. In 1988, he was toppled in a big surprise by Aloyse Wahrhouver, a centrist who aligned with the Rocard 'ouverture'. He was reelected in 1993 and 1997, more because of his personality and local base than any left-wing base in this right-wing stronghold! In 2002, he was defeated by his longtime Alain Marty, the RPR-UMP mayor of Sarrebourg. Normality returned in 2007 after the 1988-2002 'weirdness'. Marty won 56.7% by the first round, against only 12.8% for the PS candidate. Marty will win easily this year, and if there is to be a runoff, it will probably be a UMP-FN affair.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Pays de Bitche/Sarreguemines, UMP) Like the fourth, this seat is solidly conservative, including the very conservative rural cantons of the Pays de Bitche but also the more urbanized cantons around the small industrial centre of Sarreguemines. Sarko won 60.6% here, but in the first round Marine came out on top of him with 29% against 27.5% (and only some 19% for Hollande). Like the fourth, demographically this is a poor and working-class region overall, and it is terrain which is very favourable to the FN, which won up to 32% in the canton of Sarralbe. Politically, this seat is a right-wing stronghold. Between 1958 and 1962 and then 1973 and 1997, it was the seat of Jean Seitlinger, a Christian democrat. However, his retirement in 1997 opened a "succession war" on the right - which resulted in the shocking victory of a Socialist, Gilbert Maurer, with 50.3% in the runoff. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Sarreguemines, Céleste Lett, signaled a returned to normality when he won 57.1% in the runoff against Maurer. Maurer's victory in 1997 and his defeat in 2002 showed a very, very marked divide between Maurer's home turf in the Bitche country and the right's home turf in and around Sarreguemines. These divisions were basically wiped out in 2007 when Lett won 61.4% - by the first round! (against Maurer no less...). This year, Lett should win handily. If there's a runoff, it will almost certainly be against the FN.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

[Hash]

6th (Forbach/Stiring-Wendel/Freyming-Merlebach/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP) This seat is unchanged. Centered around the regional centre of Forbach, this seat covers part of the Lorrain coal basin, most notably the old mining towns of Forbach, Petite-Rosselle, Behren-lès-Forbach, Stiring-Wendel, Schœneck and Freyming-Merlebach. Mines have closed, unemployment is high, the region remains poor and the presence of large immigrant communities (notably in Behren-lès-Forbach, one of the few real leftie strongholds...) has bred a very strong FN vote. Marine placed first with 29.8%, while Sarko placed third with 23.3%. In the runoff, however, Sarko won here with 53%. I believe Jospin won this constituency in 1995, but the left has never been dominant in the mining basin of Lorraine, a world away from its dominance in the NPDC. A mix of Catholic traditions and local recruitment of employees bred this conservative tradition, which the FN has exploited very well. Panzergirl placed first in almost all of the aforementioned communes, often with over 30% of the votes, while Sarko placed third - but then Sarko won all of the aforementioned communes, even Forbach which tends a bit more to the left. The PS won this seat twice; in 1981 and 1997. In 1997, the presence of the FN in the 3-way runoff goes a long way to explaining the PS' victory. Which was, of course, shortlived. The former right-wing incumbent, Pierre Lang, UMP mayor of Freyming-Merlebach, beat the incumbent in a duel runoff with 62% in 2002 and then won 65.3% in the 2007 runoff. This year, Lang faces a tough contest. The FN fancies its chances in the "Henin-Beaumont of Lorraine", and it is running a fairly new face: Florian Philippot, who was Panzergirl's campaign director. Philippot is a high-profile 'star candidate' with some local roots. But on the other hand, his image as a technocratic elitist and an outsider of sorts to the region might hurt him, as could the dissident candidacy of Eric Vilain, who ran for the FN in 2007 (7.8%). The PS candidate is Laurent Kalinowski, the CG/mayor of Forbach. In a likely triangulaire with a very strong FN (24-28% overall?), he could very well stage a repeat of 1997 and defeat the UMP. I don't really think the FN can actually win here, but it can perform very well.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

7th (Saint-Avold/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP)* Loses Grostenquin and gains Bouzonville/Creutzwald, thus basically uniting the other part of the coal basin of Lorraine. This seat is centered on Saint-Avold, another big mining town, with its surroundings, equally marked by mining: Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller, Falck, Hombourg, L'Hôpital, Porcelette, Carling and Bisten-en-Lorraine. Once again, same story: mines are closed, the region is still very working-class, relatively poor and suffering from high unemployment. Marine placed first with 29.6%, though Sarko was second with 23.9%. In the runoff, he won 54.7%. He prevailed in all the aforementioned towns save for Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller and Hombourg, where Hollande narrowly came out ahead. The left won this traditionally conservative seat only once, in 1981. In 1997 and 2002, the runoff opposed the right and the FN. In 2007, André Wojciechowski, the PRV mayor of Saint-Avold, won the seat for the first time with 52% in the first round. He faces Paola Zanetti, a PS regional and local councillor and Nathalie Pigeot, a FN regional councillor. There is room for an upset here, by cause of a triangulaire, but the left being even weaker here than in the sixth, he should not face lots of trouble, especially not if it ends up UMP-FN like in 1997 or 2002.

Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
8th (Pays Haut Leftist Reserve, PS)* Gains Fameck and the commune of Terville from the canton of Yutz. This is basically the old tenth constituency. This creates another "reserve" for our evil baby-eating socialist atheist friends. Hollande won 58.2% here and won each canton with at least 55% of the vote, peaking at 60.8% in the PCF bastion of Moyeuvre-Grande. This mosellan part of the Pays Haut continues the iron basin found in Meurthe-et-Moselle, with iron works or defunct iron ore mines in towns such as Fameck, Moyeuvre-Grande, Fontoy and 6000 towns ending '-ange' - Hayange, Algrange, Ottange, Uckange, Florange and, of course, the Martyr City of Gandrange. The post-iron era reconversion process is difficult and still ongoing, and this region is largely poor and blue-collar. The left, PS or PCF, has long been dominant in this constituency. Since 1962, the right won here only twice: in the tsunamis of 1968 and 1993. In 1997, Michel Liebgott (PS) won a seat left open by the retirement of the one-term UDF incumbent, taking 66% in a runoff against the FN. He won 59% in 2002 and 56% in 2007. The addition of Fameck only shores up this constituency. Michel Liebgott, PS mayor of Fameck and incumbent, will win easily. The result of the FN - Marine placed distant second with 24% (Sarko won about 19%...) - and that of the FG (represented by the PCF mayor of Algrange) - Mélenchon won 14.2% here will need to be watched closely.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Thionville, UMP)* Gains Metzervisse, loses the town of Terville (canton of Yutz). This seat expands a bit but remains centered on Thionville and its area. Thionville, originally quite integrated with the Pays Haut's industrial activity, has succeeded its post-crisis reconversion and has become a fairly affluent middle-class and white-collar town. Its suburbs are fairly affluent as well. The cantons of Cattenon and Sierck-les-Bains on the border with Germany are somewhat rural, with a strong Catholic tradition which has made them quite right-wing. I suppose you might have a lot of more open-minded, liberally-oriented cross-border commuters there. Sarko won 54.6% here, while Le Pen won only 20.5% here. Sarko won about 53% in Thionville. The left won this seat only once, in 1981. In 1988, the RPR's Jean-Marie Demange won this seat and held on in each successive election, with 52% in 1997 but 55% in 2007. Demange became mayor of Thionville in 1995 in a city ruled since 1977 by the PCF, but in 2008 he was surprisingly defeated by the PS' Bertrand Mertz. So, Demange held the seat until 2008, when, depressed, he went on a murderous rampage which claimed the life of his mistress before he committed suicide himself. Yeah, I find the idea of your MP going on a murderous rampage a bit... out there... vote for me, or I'll kill myself. Since then, the seat has been held by his suppleant, Anne Grommerch (UMP). She faces a close contest with Bertrand Mertz, the PS CG/mayor of Thionville (and responsible for the murderous rampage of Demange, I guess). The FN shouldn't qualify for the runoff, I think. The right likely retains an edge, despite Mertz' likely advantage in Thionville.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

[Hash]

Yonne (I don't know a whole lot about electoral sociology here, sadly)
2007: 3 UMP

1st (Auxerre/Puisaye, UMP^)* This apparently has gained some small hamlet in some commune (?). This seat covers Auxerre, a fairly bellwetherish town, governed by the PS since 2001. Hollande won 54% in the city, but lost to Sarko in the more affluent suburbs. Hollande won the suburban canton of Coulanges-la-Vineuse, but rural areas in this sector remain largely right-leaning. Sarko won 52.1% here, while Marine took 21.4% here, her weakest result in the department. Since 1968, this seat has been held by Jean-Pierre Soisson, who in 1988 became one of the UDF centrists who participated in the Rocard 'ouverture' - in fact, he became their sort of leader and created a party - the MDR - to represent the movement. In 1993, he easily won reelection over his old colleagues. In 1997, by which time he had turned a bit more to the right, he defeated the PS. In 2007, running for the UMP, he won 54.5%. In recent years, he's turned into a bit of a useless old idiot. There's a great picture of him somewhere on my computer ingesting some huge piece of ham while drunk at a party at the National Assembly. That hasn't kept the man who won the regional council in 1992 with the FN's vote to provide comments pertaining to political morality. He's retiring this year, leaving a tough open race. Guillaume Larrivé, a UMP regional and local councillor, faces Guy Férez, the PS mayor of Auxerre since 2001. Tough to handicap this race with Soisson out of the picture, but I'd join Fab and predict a short PS win. Férez seems like a good candidate. I do not think the FN should make the runoff, but if it did, the UMP would find itself seriously weakened.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

2nd (Avallon, UMP)* Gains Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won by a short margin here, with 51.4%. Marine won 24.1% here. The main town is Avallon, in the southeast of the department. It is a more working-class regional centre, which gave 56% to Hollande. The same result he won in Tonnerre, another of the main PS bases in this region. But the most important leftie base here is Migennes, one of the last few remaining cites cheminotes which lined the Paris-Lyon railway. Migennes has usually been a PCF base, the canton gave 55% to Hollande overall. Sarko found most of his votes in some auxerrois suburbs and in Chablis' wine country. The left won this seat in 1981, 1988 and 1997. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Marie Rolland (UMP), CG for Vermenton and president of the CG between 2008 and 2011. In 2007, he won 53.8% in the runoff. Like in the past two elections, he faces Jean-Yves Caullet, the PS deputy here between 1999 and 2002, who is also CG/mayor of Avallon. With the FN likely to make the runoff, a triangulaire would be very dangerous for the right here. I have a hard time seeing this seat resist the mini-pinkish wave.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

3rd (Sens/Joigny, UMP)* Loses Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won 55.6% here, and Marine won 25.4%, her best departmental result. Besides the regional town of Joigny, the north of the department included in this seat is increasingly under the influence of greater Paris, and a lot of the areas around Sens are in fact growing distant Parisian exurbs. They're not very wealthy, fairly lower middle-class in terms of class or income. Hence, the FN performs extremely well. Over 28% in the two cantons bordering the IDF, over 30% in another. This exurban trend has also, of course, been favourable to the right as a whole. The PCF, which used to have some influence in Sens, has basically been killed off. Hollande placed third here on April 22. The left won only once, in 1981 (of course). Since 2007 this seat has been held by Marie-Louise Fort (UMP), mayor of Sens until the PRG gained the city in 2008. She faces the PRG mayor of Sens, Daniel Paris, but also a PS candidate from Joigny. The left's division could eliminate it by the first round, resulting in a UMP-FN runoff. Even a triangulaire with regional FN leader Edouard Ferrand would still end up favouring, I think, the UMP.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Nord tomorrow.

[Hash]

Nord
2007:
 
1st (Lille-Centre/Wazemmes/Lille-Sud, PS)* Gains Lille-Centre and the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin, loses Lille-SO. There’s a mistake on my map apparently because the canton of Lille-SE is not included in its entirety, unlike on my map. I wonder how long it is before some asshole on the internet decides to throw a fit over this tragic mistake. This seat takes in the downtown parts of Lille (Lille-centre) and some southern parts (Moulins, parts of Wazemmes and Lille-Sud). The result is a fairly sociologically mixed seat, from the traditionally affluent bourgeois central core to old working-class and impoverished ZUS-cité populaire neighborhoods in Lille-Sud. Wazemmes and Moulins remain fairly poor, but there’s been some gentrification at work there in recent years and Wazemmes in particular is more and more bobo/hip/artsy – like the old bourgeois central core. Hollande won 62.1% in this leftie stronghold, including 73% in Lille-Sud (held by the PS since 1945) but also a very nice 57% in Lille-Centre (held by the right between 1945 and 2008). He also won 58% in the working-class suburb of Loos and 54.5% in Faches-Thumesnil. Marine won 14.3% overall, behind Mélenchon who polled 15.2%. The trend here is very favourable to the left, the reverse of what’s happening the rest of the department. The PS has held this seat since 1973, losing narrowly only in 1993. Since 1997, it has been held by Bernard Roman (PS). He won 61.8% in 2007. He has no strong opponents and will win another term easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Lille-Hellemmes/Villeneuve-d’Ascq, PS^)* Gains the commune of Mons-en-Barœul (part of Lille-NE). This seat includes Lille-Est and the two cantons of Villeneuve-d’Ascq. Lille-Est includes the neighborhood of Fives and the old commune of Hellemmes, both former industrial proletarian faubourgs which have struggled in recent years and remain largely impoverished and blue-collar with little gentrification. Villeneuve-d’Ascq, on the other hand, is a ville nouvelle from the 1970s largely known for its big scientific research and the presence of academia in the city. There are some more low-income inner-city areas too, but in large part the city is quite ‘bobo’. Hollande won 66.5% in Lille-Est and 59% in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, also dominating in the smaller towns of Mons-en-Barœul, Ronchin and Lezennes. Overall, he took 60.8% here. Marine took 16.3%, doing best in Lille-Est, while Mélenchon won 15.5%. The left has long been dominant here, since 1973 or even earlier. The seat has been held since 1988 – even in 1993 – by the PS’ Bernard Derosier, who won 58.7% in 2007. He is retiring and the PS’ Audrey Linkenheld will hold this seat easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Maubeuge/Avesnes-sur-Helpe/Vallée de la Sambre, UMP)* The new third is the old twenty-third, more or less. Compared to the old 23rd, it gains Avesnes-Nord, Trelon and Solre-le-Chateau. Hollande won 52.4% in a seat with a UMP incumbent (from the 23rd) but which would have been notionally PS on these boundaries in 2007. The main centre here is Maubeuge, 58% for Hollande, and the main industrial town in the old metallurgical belt in the Sambre valley. The constituency also takes an unorthodox shape to take in the northern canton of Avesnes-sur-Helpe and also the canton of Trelon, which includes the textile town and PCF stronghold of Fourmies. While rural, exurban and suburban areas lean to the right, the left still has an edge in the old industrial Sambre valley - towns such as Louvroil or Boussois (two PCF strongholds) in the valley used to be centres of the metallurgical industry which predominated in the past. The left has usually been dominant in the region, the PS and PCF alternated control of the seat in the 1960s and 1970s. But the old 23rd, under much different boundaries, returned right-wingers in 1993 and onwards. In 2007, Christine Marin won a first term with 50.8% in the runoff against Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. The new seat is favourable to the left, and the strong presence of the FN here (26.5% for Marine, against some 22% for Sarko) means that she's certainly toast this year, going up against, once again, Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. It would be funny if the UMP incumbent didn't even make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

4th (Lille-Nord/Lille-Ouest, UMP)* Gains Lille-Nord. Sarko won 54.2% here, in a seat which includes some parts of Lille proper (parts of Vieux-Lille) but is mostly a suburban seat – fairly affluent – including middle-class suburbs in the cantons of Lille-N, Lille-O and Quesnoy-sur-Deûle (though the border town of Comines is quite working-class). La Madelaine and Saint-André-lèz-Lilles, middle-class but not as affluent, voted for Hollande (he also might have won the parts of Lille proper, even though the Vieux-Lille is traditionally bourgeois), but the rest of the constituency went pretty big for Sarko. Marine did well in Comines, more blue-collar, but only won 15.8% overall. The right has always held this seat, since 1992 it has been held by Marc-Philippe Daubresse (UMP, ex-UDF). Daubresse is a fairly high-profile figure of the UMP’s centrist wing and briefly served in the last cabinet. He won by the first round in 2002, and in 2007 he won 58.7% in the runoff. In the first round that year, Olivier Henno, the MoDem mayor of Saint-André-lèz-Lille and CG for Lille-Ouest won third place with 18.1%. Henno is a fairly high-profile member of the MoDem and one of the last few loyal bigwigs in that pathetic joke party, and he preceded the Big Boss in endorsing Hollande after April 22. He was supposed to run this year, but he dropped out. This likely plays to Daubresse’s advantage. He faces Hélène Parra, a PS regional and local councillor. The runoff will be a traditional left-right battle, which should probably turn out to Daubresse’s advantage.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
5th (Seclin/Haubourdin, UMP)* Gains the canton of La Bassée, loses the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin. This is a key swing seat. Hollande won 50.3% in this seat, which includes the old textile towns of Seclin and Haubourdin in suburban Lille. It now extends to La Bassée (a little move to shore up the right...), whose chef-lieu lies in the coal mining basin. Seclin and Haubourdin are both old PCF strongholds, and the towns proper remain fairly blue-collar and lower-income. Hollande won both of them, with about 53-54% (which I think is probably waaaaaaaay lower than what Mitt’rrand might have won here in 1965 or 1981). A lot of the other parts of the seat have turned into fairly well-off middle-class suburbs of Lille. Sarko won the canton of La Bassée (though lost the extremities which are in the mining basin) and did well in most other suburbs. The FN also has a foothold here: Marine won 22% of the vote here, but took 26% in Haubourdin or La Bassée (the towns themselves). This region had basically been a left-wing stronghold from 1962 to… 2002. The old fifth constituency even voted PS in 1993. Martine Aubry won 60.8% in the runoff in 1997. In 2002, however, Aubry was defeated by a young nobody – Sébastien Huyghe – who won with 51.1% in the runoff against Aubry, a monumental defeat for Aubry which led to her famous tears that night. In 2007, Huyghe confirmed a sharp right-wing trend here, winning narrow reelection with 50.7%. In 2008, however, Aubry staged her revenge when he got his ass handed to him in the local election in Lille, where Aubry won a monumental 66% in the runoff and landed Huyghe a massive blow. This year, he faces a rather tough contest. His PS opponent is Alain Cacheux – the incumbent in the old third which finds itself eliminated in this redistricting. Cacheux’ old seat was exclusively lillois, and none of its parts were given to this constituency. But the whole area is pretty much a giant city, so I doubt ‘carpetbagging’ will be too much of an issue here. Cacheux will need to deal with Bernard Debreu, the PCF mayor of Seclin (11.7% for Mélenchon in this seat, fairly crappy result), while Huyghe will need to make sure that the FN doesn’t get into a fatal triangulaire. I have a hard time seeing Huyghe survive in a climate like 2012. I don’t know a whole lot about his strengths on the ground or as an incumbent (though he is boosted a tiny bit by redistricting), but my hunch isn’t optimistic in his favour.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
6th (Pont-à-Marcq/Pévèle, DVD-UMP) This seat is unchanged. It remains composed of Lille’s western suburbs and exurbs, and is traditionally right-wing. Sarko won 56.1% here; his second best result in the department. He was, of course, boosted by the upper middle-class affluent suburbs which make up this constituency, notably in the canton of Cysoing (about 59% for Sarko) but also in Lannoy (the canton is cut in two: the most affluent and right-wing parts are in this constituency). Only Orchies proper and Ostricourt (which I think is an isolated mining basin town) are more working-class and left-leaning. Marine also did fairly mediocrely: 18.7%, doing best in the most exurban parts of this constituency, less affluent and less integrated in the lillois metropolis. Since 1993, this seat has been held by Thierry Lazaro (UMP) who gained it from the PS that year. In 1997 he won by a very tight margin (50.1%) but in 2007 he was returned with 56.6% in the runoff. With the FN out of contention for the runoff in this constituency, Lazaro should not have too much trouble defeating the PS candidate, a local councillor. There is, however, a DVD candidacy from the CG for Cysoing which could trouble things.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

[Hash]

Part 2

7th (Hem, NC)* This constituency loses the parts of Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est it included, while gaining Roubaix-Ouest. The constituency includes part of the canton of Lannoy (Hem) and all of Roubaix-Ouest, which also includes two affluent suburban communities (both solidly for Sarko). The old seventh, which included right-leaning suburbs in Lannoy but dirt-poor parts of the very deprived blue-collar cities of Roubaix and Wattrelos, was very marginal, held in 2007 by a margin of some 200 votes by the NC incumbent, Francis Vercamer. Marleix decided to gerrymander a shored-up constituency, which loses the parts which don’t vote correctly and added those who generally do – Roubaix-Ouest, where the bulk of the population lives in two affluent suburban towns (overall, 52% for Sarko). Sarko hence won the new boundaries with 52.9%. The new boundaries also had the nice effect of taking out parts of Wattrelos where the FN is very strong – in the old seventh, the Greenie Guy Hascoët (yeah, the guy who is now living like a hippie in Breizh or something) had won in 1997 thanks to a triangulaire de la mort with the FN (which averaged 19-24% or so in the old seat, iirc). Marine only won 17.9% here, thus basically eliminating the risk of a triangulaire. Vercamer is very nicely shored up by Marleix’s creative use of Gerry-DeLay scissors. I don’t think he should have much trouble this year; the PS candidate seems like a nobody.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
8th (Poor People in Roubaix-Wattrelos Leftie Reserve, PS-DVG)* While Marleix shored up the right in the seventh, he packed the lefties into an Indian Reserve. This seat gains Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est, while losing Roubaix-Ouest. The new seat is ultra-safe for the left, Hollande took 61.2% of the vote, on Sarko placed third behind Marine with only 18% in the first round. This seat includes almost all of Roubaix (67% Hollande) and Wattrelos (54.5% Hollande). Roubaix, the old textile capital of France – the French Manchester – is nowadays a very low-income and economically disadvantaged blue-collar cité populaire with 76% of people living in a ZUS and a large (30-40%?) foreign-born population. Wattrelos is not as dirt poor, but remains a low-income working-class city – but more WWC than the new mix of immigrants which predominates in Roubaix. The FN is strong in Wattrelos (27.8% for Marine) but much weaker in Roubaix (15.6%), but overall Marine won 21.3% and very distant second. The old eight was more swingy because of its composition, Marleix’ redistricting shores up the left. The old eight was won by the UDF in 1988, 1993 and 2002, but the PS won it in a triangulaire in 1997 and won it back in 2007 when the UDF-MoDem incumbent retired. Dominique Baert, mayor of Wattrelos, won in 1997 and again in 2007. In 2007, he took 56.9% in the runoff. This year, Baert faces a fight on the left. Indeed, he got shafted by the PS when they endorsed EELV (Slimane Tir) here. Tir is a local councillor in Roubaix, where he is in opposition to the PS mayor. While Roubaix sure as hell doesn’t scream bobogreenie country, Tir and the Greens seem rather well implanted locally; his list won 18.1% in a three-way runoff against the PS incumbent (René Vandierendonck, who is actually a former UDF dude) in 2008. His suppléant is a PS local councillor in Wattrelos, but I’m kind of foreseeing a regional battle between Baert in Wattrelos and EELV-PS in Roubaix. There’s lots of disagreement out there on who will win, which I’ll be a wet chicken and cop out of participating in. The UMP will likely be eliminated from the runoff, and unless the FN places second (which I doubt it will) it too will be eliminated in a region which is well known for very low turnout. There is a risk for a Tir-Baert duel in the runoff, a very small chance for a triangulaire between the two lefties and the FN, and the possibility that the leftie who places second drops out and endorses the guy who places on top. The ‘left’ wins here, but which one it will be… well, I’m a wet chicken.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Marcq-en-Barœul/Tourcoing-sud, UMP)* Gains Lille-NE (except for the commune of Mons-en-Barœul). Sarko won 58.3% here, his best result in the department. A result due almost entirely to the weight of the canton of Mons-en-Barœul, which gave Sarko a bit less than 69% of the vote – including 81% in Bondues. This canton breaks stereotypes about the Nord being like West Virginia – full of inbred rednecks/coal miners with a weird accent and missing half their teeth. This canton is one of the wealthiest in the country, it's really an upper middle-class/upper-class constituency. Otherwise, the seat has included since 1986 the canton of Tourcoing-Sud (55% Sarko) where the more leftie leanings of parts of Tourcoing are canceled out in the affluent town of Mouvaux. The addition of Lille-NE, which largely includes the gentrified middle-class neighborhood of Saint-Michel Pellevoisin makes it a bit more leftie on the whole, but not in a way which threatens the Gaullist/conservative dominance which has prevailed here since 1958. The UMP incumbent, Bernard Gérard, mayor of Marcq, won 60.2% by the first round in 2007. There's a nice chance he could win by the first round, like the right had also done in 1993 and 2002, but whatever the case, the right will win handily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

10th (Tourcoing/Vallée de la Lys, RPF-DVD) This constituency is unchanged. It includes all of Tourcoing save for the part included in the ninth constituency, but also the suburban communities which are included in the cantons of Tourcoing-N and NE. Sarko won 53.2% in this constituency, losing in Tourcoing, the old working-class textile town (55.5% for Hollande, Sarko had won it in 2007), but prevailing in the rest of the constituency - largely middle-class suburbia but also winning by a comfortable margin in Halluin, an old working-class textile town on the Belgian border. This constituency has shifted hard to the right, even if Tourcoing remains left-leaning on balance. Marine won 22.3% here, including 21% in Tourcoing and 25% in Halluin. Politically, the seat reelected an incumbent only once, in 2007. The PS won in 1988 and 1997, while the right won in 1993, 2002 and 2007. In terms of personalities, the seat has alternated since 1988 between Jean-Pierre Balduyck, the former PS mayor of Tourcoing; and Christian "Frothy" Vanneste. Vanneste won reelection with 58.6% in the runoff in 2007, but in 2008 his high-profile attempt to conquer the city of Tourcoing from the left failed epically, losing by the first round. Vanneste, a scumbag who would render the world a great service if he got run over by a truck, has a major Santorumite obsession about TEH GAYS (SAVE TEH CHILDREN!111) and FAMILY VALUES!111. He's a known homophobe, and would probably have been a keen collabo in 1940. He crossed the no-no line with the UMP big bosses earlier this year when he went off the deep end and denied that Nazis ever deported homosexuals. So he's running for reelection as a dissident, having joined - for some reason - Pasqua's old moribund outfit, the RPF. Unlike in 2007 (when he had already run as a DVD, because the UMP wasn't keen on endorsing Frothy), however, he faces UMP opposition - Gérald Darmanin - the leader of the municipal opposition in Tourcoing. The PS candidate is Zina Dahmani, local councillor in Tourcoing, whose suppleant is the PS mayor of Halluin. Unlike in 1997, I don't think the FN can qualify for a three-way runoff here. I think Frothy will come out ahead of the UMP, but I can't assess what consequences the troubles on the right will have for Frothy in a runoff. I'm a pessimist, but I'd give Frothy a narrow edge here. A Frothy-UMP-PS runoff would, however, probably allow the PS to win. Could somebody please run him over with a tractor?
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Armentières/Lomme, PS)* This seat loses La Bassée but gains Lille-SO. Hollande won here with 53.8%. Armentières, a major working-class textile town and historic PS stronghold, is the main town in this constituency. It also includes Lomme, a former industrial commune now attached to Lille where it is a lower middle-class residential neighborhood; the other communes in the canton of Lomme are all quite affluent and solidly right-wing. The addition of Lille-SO really shores up the left here, it gave 63% to Hollande. It includes parts of Wazemmes, Lille-Sud, the Faubourg de Bethune and Bois Blancs; most of these neighborhoods except perhaps Wazemmes and Bois Blancs are impoverished cité populaire areas and generally solidly leftie. The seat has been held by the left since 1958 with the exception of 1993. Save for 1993, Yves Durand (PS) has been the deputy here since 1988. He won with 52.3% in 2007, a bit more than the 50.something he won by in 2002 - he did, however, beat the incumbent with 59.1% in 1997. Durand is running for another term, he should win easily against low-profile opposition. Marine won 19.4%, I don't think the FN will make the triangulaire unless the UMP is eliminated by the first round which I don't think is very likely.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left