Pennsylvania county map predictions

[Bidenworth2020]

the 2016 pa ag election seems to be the perfect margins for what will happen in 2020. discuss

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump will win all he did in 2016 + Lackawanna, Centre, Lehigh, Dauphin, Chester, Bucks, Monroe, and Philadelphia county (jk lol).

He will win the state 51.5-47.0.

[Canis]

[Kamala]

I don't think Bucks is going to vote for Trump; it's voted Democrat since '92 and I don't see Trump making all too many inroads with voters he lost to Clinton. Same with Chester County.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I don't think Bucks is going to vote for Trump; it's voted Democrat since '92 and I don't see Trump making all too many inroads with voters he lost to Clinton. Same with Chester County.

Bucks I think is on the menu, but originally I was going to put Chester as a reach but it's still possible.

[Beet]

Given who the Democrats are likely to nominate, I don't see their candidate winning Luzerne when Trump won it by 20 points.

[cvparty]

Going far left will hurt the Democrats a lot.

bye

[Canis]

Going far left will hurt the Democrats a lot.

This is a ridiculous prediction

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

for the record, this map has Philadelphia, and a county that last voted Democrat in the LBJ 1964 landslide as the only Democrat counties.

Lol, fail.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump isn't getting anything less than 65% in Somerset county. He is more likely to cross 70% then go under 60%. Much less a Dem win it in a landslide like that one map, which I must assume is an old Senate map or something.


Monroe, Lehigh, Bucks, Dauphin and Centre are the most likely flips to Trump if he wins the state again.

[TML]

In the event of a Democratic win, I'd say that the Democrats win all counties they did in 2012 with the possible exception of Luzerne (IMO, they don't necessarily need to win this county outright; they just need to reduce their losing margin there).

[Del Tachi]

[Canis]

Given who the Democrats are likely to nominate, I don't see their candidate winning Luzerne when Trump won it by 20 points.

Thats  a map from 2016 state treasure race that county has a lot of people who voted for trump in the general but downballot democrats Obama won that county by 5 points

[Beet]

Given who the Democrats are likely to nominate, I don't see their candidate winning Luzerne when Trump won it by 20 points.

Thats  a map from 2016 state treasure race that county has a lot of people who voted for trump in the general but downballot democrats Obama won that county by 5 points

I never said the Democrats couldn't win state treasurer 2020. Although upballot does tend to trickle down with time...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, that is something to understand about PA. The reason Republicans are struggling down ballot now is because the Philly burbs finally started voting like they do up ballot, while the out-state areas that Trump picked up, will still vote for home boy Democrats.

[Canis]

Given who the Democrats are likely to nominate, I don't see their candidate winning Luzerne when Trump won it by 20 points.

Thats  a map from 2016 state treasure race that county has a lot of people who voted for trump in the general but downballot democrats Obama won that county by 5 points

I never said the Democrats couldn't win state treasurer 2020. Although upballot does tend to trickle down with time...

Thats not what I was saying what I was saying in the general in 2020 if the democrats come home because of a good nomine Luzerne will most likely flip

[PragmaticPopulist]

Probably something like this:



Democrats don't need Luzerne to win statewide. They just can't tank there like Hillary Clinton did. I still think Luzerne isn't out of reach for Ds though.

I think Democrats need to win Erie County though. A Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won statewide without Erie since 1944.

I don't think Trump will win Centre County, since 41.4% of its population has a bachelor's degree or more.