Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
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« on: December 05, 2014, 06:41:56 PM » |
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« edited: December 05, 2014, 06:47:42 PM by New Canadaland »
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In Canada the margin required for an election to be considered close is less than 5-10% but it depends on where.
Federally a 10% margin is wide (hasn't been achieved by anyone after Chretien, Harper came close) and also would be a landslide in Ontario, where the OLP could in theory win a majority with a 2 point margin. Vote efficiency can make close elections seem like landslides and vice versa. However in the Atlantic, Praries and BC, a double digit polling lead can evaporate right before your very eyes. Popular governments can get up to 60% in some provinces, unthinkable in Ontario or Quebec.
Provincially you often can't tell before the election if it's close because the two latest polls may have a double digit difference in margin between them. I think mistrust of polling has lead to the media treating any election as a tossup without overwhelming evidence to the contrary, though that's common.
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