Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Peter]

So what rules are being used?

The old ones (i.e. the ones that elected IDS) because the new ones couldn't get a supermajority in the National Convention of Local Chairmen (it only got 58%). Frankly, this is a good thing since the proposed new rules were somewhat stupid. They need to go the way of an electoral college longer term, which gives everybody a say in the final round, but not having the MPs reduced to the ranks of the rank and file members.

FTR, I support Ken Clarke, and if he wins I will join probably (re)join the Conservative Party.

[Peter]

David Cameron - Would be another Leader (After IDS) not to have held government office before, and is relatively inexperienced as an MP (entered Parliament only in 2001). He has little name recognition with the public, and thus I think he is not the man for today, but as we learn more about him, he may become more appealing as a future leader.

Ken Clarke - Has held almost every major government office except the Foreign Office. Been in Parliament since 1970 - he is known well by the public. Is considered to be a social liberal and pro-European - this may hurt him with the party, but certainly the social liberalism may attract a whole new generation of young Tories.

David Davies - Was a Government Whip and Minister of State at the Foreign Office under Major. Described as a right winger (and certainly Eurosceptic), he has nonetheless been endorsed by many modernisers, most notably David Willetts. Popular with activists, and his humble origins on a council estate probably do make him quite attractive to old working class Tories who have since gone other ways.

Liam Fox - Again a government whip and a PUSS at the Foreign Office under Major. Certainly right wing, both economically and socially. Has made overtures on greater restriction of abortion. Personally I see him as being another IDS, just Scottish.

Edward Leigh - Even more right wing than Fox - seen as the Redwoodite candidate for the leadership and has famously boasted of his total opposition to gay rights. He once served as a government minister and is presently chairman of the powerful Public Accounts Committee (not incomparable to US Ways and Means Committee). Personally, this would certainly see me voting Labour for the duration of his leadership and might well create a generation with few Tories in it.

Theresa May - Difficult to pigeonhole into any camp, though regarded by many as a moderniser. Like Cameron, she has no government experience having entered Parliament in 97, but has held a variety of cabinet posts, though her appointment as Shadow Secretary for the Family before the last election was widely seen as a demotion. More famous for her shoes than any particular ideological or intellectual vision, I personally see her as all style and no substance.

Malcolm Rifkind - Former Defence and Foreign Secretary under Major. Was an MP in Edinburgh from 1974 to 97, but lost his seat in the Labour landslide and then failed to regain it in 2001. Finally got a new seat in 2005 in Kensington and Chelsea. A one-nation moderniser like Clarke, but instead Eurosceptic. Many feel he has been out of Parliament too long and spent too long outside the public consciousness to be a good choice for leader.

[Peter]

Whoever takes the party to the hard right (i.e. to oblivion), would gladly enjoy my support

Dave

Oh, you support proportional representation then? Because I'm confident that that would keep the Tories out of power for a VERY long time to come.

I'm sure it would but I don't like PR. My prefered voting system would be either Alternative Vote or second ballot (with a run-off between the top two and only the top two)with single member constituencies. This, too, I suspect would work against the Tories

Well, under either system it wouldn't be long before the Tory party was totally wiped out of some areas of the country, and mostly restricted to the Home Counties.

This will then lead to either Labour or the Lib Dems taking on a more right wing stance - I suspect Labour might be the ones in this regard. Whilst it might wipe out the Tories, it would cause a re-alignment that would see them replaced.

[Peter]

When do we find out the winner?

According to Wikipedia, the timetable is as follows:
    * 7 October Nominations open
    * 14 October Nominations close
    * 18 October First ballot of MPs
    * 20 October Second ballot of MPs
    * Subsequent Tuesdays and Thurdays - Further ballots of MPs until only two candidates remain
    * 5 December Members' ballot closes
    * 6 December Result announced

[Peter]

I know 2009 is far off but do any of these candidates even have a chance at leading the conservatives to victory, you need like 330ish for a majority and if i recall they have around 200.

In short, he may not be able to make the strict majority, but anything approaching 300 and you can basically guarantee that the Tories are the plurality party. Then either the Tories go into coalition with the Lib Dems, or do as they did in 96/7 and come to some arrangement with the Unionists.

Soon enough I'll start going over what seats are winnable from all three directions, so once I'm done with that I should be able to give you a better answer.

[Peter]

O/c it's going to be harder for the Tories to gain more than a few seats next election than it was last one due to the boundary changes. Basically they are going to gain 10 to 20 seats notionally but have their hopes screwed in so, so many others... have a look at the new map for Northants

Do we have any idea of when the wonks will produce a notional set of results as they did pre-97 and pre-05 for Scotland?

[Peter]

Labour lost Reading East because the local party suffered a rift - it probably would have held if it weren't for that.

What are those polls: Conservative members or registered voters?

[Peter]

Rifkind has endorsed Clarke

I think hurts Fox the most - I don't think he will have eaten away at Davis' lead in the MPs to be able to beat him, and Cameron looks to be going strongly, so I doubt he can beat him. Clarke also appears to have a reasonable amount of support.

[Peter]

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

Well, he can't sing or act, so I do hope that he has some brains. Where would he be looking to stand, because he could certainly revitalise the Tory vote in certain urban centres in the North West where they've been effectively absent since 97 and even before that in some cases.

[Peter]

Davis getting fewer votes than he had declared supporters spells the end of him I feel.

[Peter]

I have to say that I am very dismayed at the Conservative Party - a few weeks ago I honestly felt like the leadership of the party was within Ken's grasp, and finally the party would be lead by somebody who would win elections the way that Harold Macmillan had.

The remaining options are now Davis, Cameron and Fox.

Along with many others I view Fox as something of a fascist lite. I suspect he would be somewhat equivilant to IDS Mark II, just Scottish.

I have never viewed David Cameron as a viable commodity for the leadership, and my reasons are remarkably similar to the reasons that Conservatives in the US oppose Harriet Miers. Simply put, he has never held government office, and only enterred Parliament in 2001 - he is remarkably inexperienced. Second, during his short tenure in the Shadow Cabinet he has not held a position in which he would need to formulate policy until incredibly recently (he was only appointed to the Education brief after the last election) - we actually have no idea what his policies would be like, although the papers seem to have it in their heads that he's going to be on the left of the party. I've seen no evidence that he is on the left, and being naturally at home on the left of the Tory party, I strongly question his credentials as a standard bearer for my politics.

Then there's David Davis. Of all the candidates remaining, its my opinion he is actually the most likely to lead the party to general election victory, even though I don't really agree with his politics. Men like David Willetts will likely temper his social conservatism, and he has shown down the past 4 years that he certainly has charisma, and could probably begin to woo back old working class Tory voters.

Finally, I warn against David Cameron by referring to an example of remarkably recent history: Tony Blair. Blair was elected as our Prime Minister with no previous experience of government - consequently he destroyed cabinet government in our nation, and as a result I believe we lost an important part of our democratic dialogue. Cameron has never held government office; I doubt he understands the benefits of cabinet government the way that Clarke does.

I'll conclude by saying that if Liam Fox wins, expect him to be deposed a la IDS, and then confidently into the leadership will march the Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke after being written off for good by all the papers when he finished last in the leadership contest. Sound familiar?

[Peter]

Cameron - 110
Fox - 45
Davis - 43

[Peter]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

Well effectively suspending the party rules for the second leadership contest in succession would be a pretty damning indictment in my opinion - lets not bother with democracy, its too expensive!!

[Peter]

I think that Derek Conway would be well advised to throw himself in a ditch, but thats probably just me.

[Peter]

that electon calculator is interesting

Party 
CON   40.00%     304
LAB      34.00%   304
LIB   15.00%          8

so if this happened even if the conservative party won the popular vote by 6% they would still only be tied in the seats held.

It won't be quite that bad after the Boundary Reviews (redistricting) are taken into account, but the electoral system will still have an inbuilt Labour bias I expect.

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1935, but even then, that was a time of National Government (similar to Germany's present Grand Coalition). The last time one party got 50% on its own was in 1931 when the Tories polled 55%, and the time before that was 1900.