Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016

[ag]

I suppose there's an outside chance that Yabloko (probably the biggest actual "opposition" party) might be able to win a seat, although they would have an uphill climb.

I went to an LDPR rally once when I was in Russia just out of curiosity. It was concerning how much of their supporter base seems to be young people and college-age students - not at all like the Tea Party or a lot of European far-right parties, to the best of my knowledge. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually see a bit of a renaissance in the coming years.

Electoral-type events should not be discussed on this board.

[ag]

Russia has not had elections in years, and is not planning any. Discussion of Russian politics should be done on a different board.

[ag]

I disagree that thread about Russian elections should be deleted or moved to some other place in the forum.
I think that the solution proposed by Sibboleth is the best.

Ok. However, since I do not believe in fairy tales, I am afraid, I do not have much to contribute here.

[ag]

Let's talk about Russian politics instead of fuelling silly attempts at trolling.

But surely it isn't possible to talk about Russian politics without also...

... Russian politics talking about you?

[ag]

No. Nothing to be excited about.

[ag]

Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Of these 14, People's Freedom Party is certainly a genuine opposition. Yabloko too, maybe somewhat less genuine. It can be argued to what extent KPRF is an opposition.

I disagree. If anything, Yabloko has some people who are genuine: e.g. Shlossberg. Hard to find anybody as clearly in opposition as that in any other party.

Basically, the assumption should be that all opposition parties are a) heavily infiltrated and b) have to get most of their activities approved in the Kremlin. An occasional individual in some of those parties may be personally clean and genuine. People´s Freedom has been completely destroyed from inside. Its wreck is only in the race, at this point, to demonstrate to the public the lack of support for liberal ideas in the society (and, just in case, they also created the Growth Party to stand in the same ideological space, featuring some well-known have-beens).  Yabloko, if anything, is a bit more of an actual organization, with long-term membership base, so, despite being willing to bend and compromise on far too many things, it is, in the end, at least somewhat out there.  

In any case, whether any of these parties are in the next Duma will not likely be primarily determined by the actual votes cast, but by the decisions taken somewhere in the presidential administration. Party leaders know it, and they play by the rules. Honestly, the real discussion of this election should start with the discussion of office space allocation in a certain office building on the Old Square. And no, this is not a stupid meme.

[ag]

Most people are apathetic and resigned to continuos "United Russia" rule.

One correction. There is no "United Russia" rule. The "party" itself is pretty irrelevant. Nobody takes it seriously and it does not have much of influence on anything. In some (many) places locally influential people could be also party leaders, but their influence has nothing to do with their party role: the latter is just a manifestation of their influence, not the other way around. Unlike the Soviet days, when The Party was really the government of the country, these days United Russia has a lot less influence on anything than Reince Priebus has on the Trump campaign. It is an occasionally convenient element of the government machine: but among the less important ones. Tomorrow the will could absorb it into the government as some sort of a presidential administration department, and nobody would even notice. I mean, a few smart alecks in Moscow would wisecrack for a couple days: but that would be about it.

[ag]

Just to be clear. Russia is not an electoral democracy. An election might be a catalyst of government change in the future: but only because the popular discontent would cause a revolution at some point. For the moment, the level of such discontent necessary for government change is equal to that necessary to start a popular revolt. And it is not, at present. Elections themselves,except as, potentially, focal points for such discontent in the future, do not matter. They are just rituals, parts of a bizarre cargo cult. It makes no sense to take them seriously. A few dissident-like characters participate in this for dissidentish reasons (same way as the dissidents of the past would demonstrate with the slogan: "respect the Soviet Constitution"). I highly admire that, but it does not make an election. Everybody else is in it for very narrow private reasons, usually having to do with being on government pay. Nobody today expects anything else from the exercise.

[ag]

So how is the communist party nowadays? what kind of platform are they "running on"?

What is the stance of the different parties towards the Ukraine crisis and Russian expansion?

1. Standard unreconstructed platform of former KPSU: for "developed socialism with communist perspective". No real transformation to socialist or social-democratic party (as was even in Eastern Europe), though begrudgingly recognizes private property now... Less internationalist and substantially more nationalist then KPSU though...

2. All for parties, represented in present Duma, are anti-Ukranian (at least - anti-post Maidan-Ukranian) and, mostly, anti-West in general. Correspondingly - all are absolutely "for" Rusian expansion: the more - the better...

1. | would stress that ever since the Soviet collapse mainstream Russian Communists have been, in fact, pretty much ultra-nationalist and extremely conservative on all social matters. These days they are also quite friendly with the clerical circles. Basically, if a European liberal wants a caricature to hate, Russian Communists are it.

2. Yabloko and People's Freedom are pretty much the only ones who have some prominent members who are publicly on record as being opposed to what has been done in Ukraine. In fact some People's Freedom candidates demonstratively asked Ukrainian embassy for a permission to campaign in Crimea (it was denied). Yabloko's Shlossberg has become prominent by exposing the government lies about "non-intervention" into Ukraine (he was a local council member in Pskov, where a major Russian special forces unit is based, and he publicised casualties it had). It is not a popular position within the country, but it is a niche. As I said, on individual level some candidates in these elections are real opposition. Their parties... Well it is, at best, somewhat ambiguous.

Yabloko is also deliberately stressing rights and contributions of the Muslim minority in Russia: People's Freedom is more Russian nationalist on that.

[ag]

2. Yabloko and People's Freedom are pretty much the only ones who have some prominent members who are publicly on record as being opposed to what has been done in Ukraine. In fact some People's Freedom candidates demonstratively asked Ukrainian embassy for a permission to campaign in Crimea (it was denied).

It seems these parties (Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone) are not especially concerned about losing even more of the little support they have. A good idea would have been to propose a new referendum in the Crimea which would at least get some attention and could highlight the illegality of the 2014 referendum. But it would be rather unpopular outside Russia, which I guess is more important for these parties.

Remember: if these were real elections, than, for a party merely trying to cross the 5% threshold "Crimea is Ukrainian" could be a very advantageous position. Yes, most Russians would hate it. But there are well over 5% who would be extremely strongly attracted to it. This is not a presidential race. A minority party could do very well on this platform. As it is, the main attraction of Yabloko this year is Shlossberg. And Shlossberg pretty much symbolises the anti-war position here.

[ag]

One peculiar thing about this "election" is scarcity of public polls. VTSiOM, of course, produces some fairly regular numbers (39.3% UR, 10.4% LDPR, 8.7% CPRF, 5.3% JR, everybody else under 2% each - yes, with decimals), but they are pretty much alone, and who knows, whether they actually poll, or get the results straight from the Presidential Administration. Levada-Center (a marginally more independent pollster) has reported vaguely similar numbers, but slightly less impressive  for UR (31% UR, 10% CPRF, 9% LDPR, 5% JR nobody else above 1%) - and still got itself declared a foreign agent (which means it will, probably, ahve to close soon). And I am pretty damn interested to know if there is really much else.

Of course, there are all sorts of vague rumors ("Yabloko in 3rd in Moscow! Double digits!" whatever). But the lack of public polls is interesting

[ag]

I doubt anyone cares (I, certainly, do not), but there seems to be a no-name poll for one district in Moscow on a pro-government new site. Whatever it means (probably nothing), but, anyway, we do not have many polls for this "election".

Medvedkovo district (northern Moscow: not particularly rich, definitely not an opposition stronghold - but, still, Moscow).

Plan to vote 40.1%
Will not vote for anyone 22.1%
Will not come to vote 19%
Undecided whom to vote for 18.8%

Of the total number polled, expressed preference for a political party:
United Russia 36.2%
LDPR 14.4%
Yabloko 5.5%
Communist Party of RF 5.2%
Just Russia 5.2%
Greens (whatever) 3.1%
Communists of Russia (the more radical/expansionist version of the Commies) 1.8%
Patriots of Russia 1.3%
everybody else 1% or less each.

I guess, what this indicates, mostly, is the government's willingness to recognise Yabloko in 3rd within Moscow. A sop to the urban liberals.

[ag]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

[ag]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

By 2024 either the Shah dies, or the ass.

[ag]

   Isn't there a term called "false aerodromes (or airfields)" in which the Kremlin sets up fake parties to siphon off votes from real opposition parties? This could be the case with the Communist Party of Russia.

It is far beyond that. Mainline Russian communists have been a fake opposition for a long time themselves. Well, they just decided to humiliate them slightly. Pretty much every political organization allowed into this race had been infiltrated and/or agreed to play within the role given to it by the Kremlin. Some of them hoped to get something in exchange - well, none of them, really, did. This was no election whatsoever. Talking of anything specifically being "false" here is like talking about something being "false" in a Ponzi scheme - it is redundant.

[ag]

So, I think the general consensus of those bothering to do the calculations, is that at least 10-15 percentage points of the turnout is outright fake. In other words,  given that that the official turnout is under 50%, between every fourth and every third vote counted was not really cast. That is, probably, a low estimate.

And they did this without any real need to do it. Even if the UR had fewer seats, the other "parliamentary parties" are completely loyal. I guess, it was purely the matter of not getting out of shape on faking.

[ag]

Will Putin go full on North Korean and require the three other parties to join a United Front with UR, and then present voters with a single candidate list?

Nah. No need to. More trouble than it is worth.

And, BTW, this would not be North Korea. This is good old Soviet Russia. There were no "other parties" there. There was just the strong and united "Bloc of the Communists and non-party members".

[ag]

Vladimir Volfovich Eidelstein Zhirinovskiy

Wait.

Wait.

Zhirinovsky is a Jew? Zhirinovsky?!

He first tried it out in public politics as a lawyer for some Jewish club in the late 1980s. It was only a year or two later that he was designated by the KGB to become the official Soviet fascist.