Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fundraising reports for the post-primary portion of the second quarter (May 28 - June 30) are due Wednesday. Deeds has reported raising $3.4 million since the pre-primary report, undoubtedly helped by $400k $500k from the DGA and $500k from the AFSCME (who had given over $600k to McAuliffe in the primary - no hard feelings there, I guess). He has $2.7 million on hand.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Couldn't tell you -- VPAP's website won't load their "money in" page.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bob McDonnell only raised $1.8 million, but has $5 million on hand.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are the totals for the May 28 - June 30 period:

Creigh Deeds - $521k starting balance, $3.4m raised, $1.2m spent, $2.7m on hand
Bob McDonnell - $4.9m starting balance, $1.8m raised, $1.8m spent, $4.9m on hand

Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling - $928k starting balance, $366k raised, $177k spent, $1.1m on hand
Jody Wagner - $273k starting balance, $231k raised, $317k spent, $188k on hand

Attorney General:

Ken Cuccinelli - $136k starting balance, $292k raised, $95k spent, $333k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.0m starting balance, $284k raised, $39k spent, $1.25m on hand

Here's hoping Shannon stops running such a crappy campaign and actually tries to win this thing. He's got the money.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In the end, the governor numbers don't really matter, since the parties can dump unlimited amounts of money into the race. That won't happen as much with the LG and AG races, where Wagner and Shannon will be pretty much left on their own. There might be some last-minute buys if they sense an opening in either race, but that's about it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How have Wagner and Shannon been doing in their respective races?

Shannon's campaign has sucked so far. He got a new campaign manager, so hopefully he'll start doing better.

Wagner is a little odder. She has a huge cash deficit compared to Bolling, but the one poll that has been conducted showed Bolling ahead only 46-40, basically a "generic R vs D" response, so he's made zero impact as LG. Not surprising, really, considering how useless the office is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I updated my House of Delegates targets, see it here at SSP:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/5292/virginia-house-of-delegates-targets-postprimarysecond-quarter-fundraising-update

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kaine is calling a special session of the GA to deal with the recent Supreme Court ruling regarding crime lab access by criminal defendants. Cuccinelli had called on him to do this, Shannon's campaign criticized it as political posturing. Boy, Shannon is screwing over his chances of winning.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/SESS22_20090721-234602/281419/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP says they'll have another survey out the first week of August.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It was pretty boring, from what I heard.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Joke poll. Pass.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.

The poll sample is 52% McCain, 43% Obama. One of the many reasons why it's a joke poll.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Look, I'm ready to believe McDonnell is ahead, but it's ridiculous to think it's 55-40 now. Also, there is no way that the electorate is down to 5% undecided (for all three races!) in July.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only good news for Deeds is that he has much more room to grow than McDonnell does. Most of the undecideds are black voters, and Deeds' supposed problem with them doesn't seem to be helping McDonnell, who's getting 3% of the black vote. I still don't think it's going to be a landslide, McDonnell will probably top out at 54-55% if he continues to lead like this.

Oh well, it was nice to dream.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

It's not over, especially since Deeds has come back from oblivion twice before, but it's a heck of a hill to climb.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Terry McAuliffe would be ahead by 6-8 points right now. Oh well.

I honestly can't tell if you're joking or not.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like 1997 redux. The real tragedy is Shannon's crap campaign.

Shannon's campaign has started to come to life with a new campaign manager, but at this point he's going to be sunk by McDonnell's coattails.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I going to ask this question. Is it over Virginians? Has McDonnell Won, or are we in for a close election come September and October?

Virginians don't really tune into elections until after Labor Day (they happen every damn year here, after all), but it's a really crappy position for Deeds to be in going into the fall. I said two or three pages ago: It's not over, especially since Deeds has come back from oblivion twice before, but it's a heck of a hill to climb.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A little down-ballot news:



No, that's not Kenny Rogers, it's Delegate Phil Hamilton (R-Newport News), who is digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole regarding an ethical problem. Basically, he appropriated money to Old Dominion University then got a job that was funded by his appropriation. Then he lied about not having any contact with ODU about getting the job beforehand. Oops. Republican House Speaker Bill Howell has requested an ethics investigation, and five of the six statewide candidates (Cuccinelli is the only holdout) have called on Hamilton to resign. And Hamilton is facing his first Democratic opponent since 1995, a well-funded lawyer named Robin Abbott. The district has voted for every Democrat running statewide since 2005. Sucks to be him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds is starting not to sound bad...


Is Mark Warner revered as a god in Virginia?

He is by far the most popular politician in Virginia. Pretty much everyone outside of the Republican base (you know, the 35% or so that voted Gilmore) likes him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm amused that Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling only has a mediocre 46-40 lead over cash-strapped Jody Wagner. Clue to VA Republicans: do not nominate this guy for governor in four years.

Also, Steve Shannon has managed to piss away the best chance for a Democrat to win the Attorney General office since Mary Sue Terry left office. Good job, Steve. At least the Democrats (might) pick up Cuccinelli's Senate seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some ridiculous news out of Virginia Beach...

First, Del. Bobby Mathieson (D-21) has accused one of his aides of embezzling campaign money.

Second, Mark Hardman, the challenger for Virginia Beach Commonwealth's Attorney is homeless and unemployed:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some ridiculous news out of Virginia Beach...

First, Del. Bobby Mathieson (D-21) has accused one of his aides of embezzling campaign money.

Second, Mark Hardman, the challenger for Virginia Beach Commonwealth's Attorney is homeless and unemployed:

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If that's truly the reason he was fired, I can't help feeling bad for the guy.

Well, Harvey Bryant is a grade-A slimeball, but I don't know anything about Mobley.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Del. Steve Landes (R-25) makes the teabaggers happy with an unrepentant comparison of the Obama administration to Nazis/Commies (you know, whichever):

http://www2.newsvirginian.com/wnv/news/local/waynesboro/article/landes_refuses_to_make_apology/45221/

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