Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Campaign finance reports for june 1-july 31 are due tomorrow. I shall report as usual once they're out.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently the NRA left Deeds off their sample ballot in 2005, and the NRA's CEO did a robocall for McDonnell, so it's not like the endorsement meant anything for Deeds in the first place. Hell, not getting it may help him consolidate support in NoVa.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are the totals for the July 1 - August 31 period (I was off by a month in my previous post):

Creigh Deeds - $2.72m starting balance, $3.49m raised, $1.83m spent, $4.38m on hand
Bob McDonnell - $4.92m starting balance, $2.94m raised, $2.05m spent, $5.81m on hand

Bill Bolling - $1.12m starting balance, $547k raised, $338k spent, $1.33m on hand
Jody Wagner - $188k starting balance, $636k raised, $231k spent, $593k on hand

Ken Cuccinelli - $333k starting balance, $617k raised, $198k spent, $752k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.26m starting balance, $537k raised, $167k spent, $1.63m on hand

[JohnnyLongtorso]

God forbid we should actually fund transportation for once...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've updated my House of Delegates forecast:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/5608/virginia-house-of-delegates-targets-midseptember-edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nice try, WaPo, but Kaine doesn't have an approval that high.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

At least one person was predicting a George Allen-type blowout back when McDonnell was leading by 15 percent, and that's just ridiculous, because the Virginia of 1993 is completely different from the Virginia of 2009. McDonnell was never going to win that kind of margin, because no serious statewide candidate of either party these days is going to get below 45% or so of the vote. The ones this decade who have, Gilmore in 2008 and McEachin in 2001, were both joke candidates.

So, as I've said before, the ceiling for McDonnell is about 54-55% of the vote. Of course, his floor is probably around 48-49% at this point. If Deeds pulls off a win, it will be by the skin of his teeth.

Steve Shannon might lose by more than 10 percent, but his campaign has just been that bad. He might be able to mitigate his loss with a lot of media spending in the last couple weeks, since he's got a 2-1 cash advantage over Cuccinelli, but I don't see how he could come close at this point.

Jody Wagner may actually be the one to watch, which would have been unbelievable six months ago. Bolling's numbers are incredibly soft for an incumbent (though he's got a lot more money, essentially nobody knows who he is), and Wagner seems to be doing a little better than Deeds in the polls. Bolling will probably squeak by on McDonnell's coattails, but I think he will do the worst of all the statewide Republicans this year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In 2005, McDonnell won the suburban counties of Loudoun, Prince William, and Henrico, but only by a few percent each. Deeds won Fairfax County 58-42. Deeds also won all the cities in Hampton Roads except for Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. I really think McDonnell's suburban credentials are overblown.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

God forbid we should actually fund transportation for once...

Didn't VA have two consecutive Democratic governors, one who increased taxes unnecessarily that resulted in millions of excessive funds?  I think the residents of Virginia might find it hard to believe that a third Democratic governor would be any different, especially since he's campaigned on their reputation.

No, Mark Warner raised taxes to patch the gaping holes in the budget left by Jim "No Car Tax" Gilmore.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

But if he endorsed Deeds he would have been brilliant I bet.

No, Wilder is a has-been who wants to be in the spotlight as much as possible. Why else would he run for Mayor of Richmond a decade after leaving the governor's mansion?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So all the other polls that show a similar margin are wrong too, I guess.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No shit Deeds has been negative. My point is that when you're far ahead you don't need to go negative.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Classy:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/video-bet-founder-mocks-deeds-stuttering-mcdonnell-campaign-fundraiser

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fundraising numbers for September:

Creigh Deeds - $4.4m starting balance, $3.5m raised, $5.1m spent, $2.8m on hand
Bob McDonnell - $5.8m starting balance, $3.8m raised, $5.1m spent, $4.5m on hand

Bill Bolling - $1.3m starting balance, $476k raised, $555k spent, $1.2m on hand
Jody Wagner - $593k starting balance, $465k raised, $179k spent, $880k on hand

Ken Cuccinelli - $752k starting balance, $673k raised, $489k spent, $935k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.6m starting balance, $533k raised, $734k spent, $1.4m on hand

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bob McDonnell says he'll serve his entire term if elected, discouraging breathless "McDonnell in 2012" commentators:

http://nbc12.wordpress.com/2009/10/19/mcdonnell-pledges-to-serve-entire-term/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds won't win, but that SUSA poll is a piece of shit. In fact, all their polls of this race have been completely worthless. McDonnell's ceiling is 55% of the vote and if he breaks that then I'll quit this forum.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds won't win, but that SUSA poll is a piece of shit. In fact, all their polls of this race have been completely worthless. McDonnell's ceiling is 55% of the vote and if he breaks that then I'll quit this forum.

Is that a promise?

I'd almost do it now, if it meant never having to hear your constant inanity again, but you post over at SSP sometimes for some unknown reason.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

After some consideration, I take it back. Well, most of it, anyway. Deeds is just digging himself further and further in. I still think a single-digit win is most likely, but I'm not going to be surprised anymore if McDonnell hits 56-57% on election day. I just feel sorry for Wagner, Shannon, and the House of Delegates candidates who are being dragged down by the Hindenburg that is Deeds' campaign.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can not possibly comprehend how anyone could vote for both McDonnell and Obama. That makes no sense whatsoever.

It's more like half the people who voted for Obama are staying home this year. As I said somewhere else, 3.7 million people voted in 2008, we'll be lucky to break 2 million this year.

And yes, Moran and McAuliffe wouldn't have done any better. Well, McAuliffe may have been able to buy some more support in Fairfax.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My final overview for the House of Delegates:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5786

Brief version: not good for the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Best of luck, Ben.  I did my absentee ballot a while ago because I wasn't sure if I would be on travel on election day.  I've long argued that Deeds was the Democrat's best chance at winning the election.  But as history has shown, Virginia rarely votes for a governor that shares the same party as the President.  Add in to the past 8 years of Democrat rule and a state government that is having problems meeting their financial obligations, the odds were stacked against him.

If you don't mind my asking, how did you vote? I'm particularly interested in the House of Delegates, assuming you're in a competitive district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The very last round of pre-election campaign finance reports is due today, covering October 1-21. As always, I'll post the statewide candidate totals this evening.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The money keeps flowing...

Creigh Deeds - $2.8m on hand, $3.1m raised, $4.9m spent, $938k on hand
Bob McDonnell - $4.5m on hand, $4.0m raised, $6.7m spent, $1.8m on hand

Bill Bolling - $1.2m on hand, $496k raised, $1.2m spent, $524k on hand
Jody Wagner - $880k on hand, $464k raised, $1.1m spent, $237k on hand

Ken Cuccinelli - $935k on hand, $532k raised, $1.3m spent, $154k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.4m on hand, $532k raised, $985k spent, $955k on hand

I don't know what Shannon intends to do with that million bucks in the last two weeks of the campaign.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Washington Post poll to be released later today.

Yeah ok yet nobody in the entire Atlas world has posted it.  I saw the new Washington Post poll and I can understand why it hasn't been posted here.

Don't expect me to post the poll numbers though.  I won't do anybody favors!!! 

Well, I have to work for a living, so I don't have time to post here all day.

That said, it's here. 55-44 McDonnell. Only good news for Deeds is he's up 56-43 in NoVa, which means the House of Delegates races might not be so much of a bloodbath.

In other news, I got not one, not two, but three mailers from my local Democratic House of Delegates candidate. I would think the fact that I voted in the Democratic primary would suggest that I'm going to vote for him, but who knows.