Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans pick up HD-23 at the last second.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And HD-51.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Um, dude, in case you haven't noticed the Republicans control the House of Delegates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

32nd falls to the Republicans as well. Exurban Dems are getting screwed but good.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And I'm projecting the 67th to go Republican as well.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What does it look like the numbers will be in the House?

Right now, it's a net +4 for the Republicans, but there are 2 or 3 Dem seats that are in doubt. 59-41 for the Republicans if the Dems manage to hold onto the rest of their seats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

House of Delegates pickups:

Republican pickups - 3rd, 23rd, 32nd, 34th, 51st, 67th, 83rd
Democratic pickups - 52nd, 93rd

The 21st District is the only one I think still might flip; incumbent Democrat Bobby Mathieson is up by 39 votes with the mystery absentee precinct left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been so focused on the House that I haven't looked at the statewide map.

It looks strikingly similar to this one:



Don McEachin's 60-40 loss to Jerry Kilgore for Attorney General in 2001.

I will never question Survey USA again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I was wrong about turnout (I predicted 2.1 million); it looks to have been almost exactly the same as 2005. There were 1,983,778 votes for Governor in 2005. Currently it's at 1,953,146, with 99.32% of precincts in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, I predicted the right margin, but for the wrong race. I said 56.5 - 43.5 or thereabouts for Governor... It is, in fact, the margin for Lt. Governor, though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It looks like SWVA is completing its realignment to the Republicans, kicking out one of its three Democratic Delegates (the other two probably would have lost as well had the Republicans put up an opponent -- Bud Phillips was unopposed, but write-ins got 9% of the vote).

I'm betting after this result, Terry Kilgore gets into the race against Rick Boucher.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Deeds only won his Senate district by 3 points, based on my calculations:

Albemarle    - 13768 McDonnell / 13568 Deeds
Allegheny - 3188 Deeds / 2017 McDonnell
Bath   - 1159 Deeds / 666 McDonnell
Buckingham - 177 McDonnell / 154 Deeds
Nelson - 2679 McDonnell / 2310 Deeds
Rockbridge - 5991 McDonnell / 1704 Deeds
Buena Vista - 824 McDonnell / 528 Deeds
Charlottesville - 7422 Deeds / 2639 McDonnell
Covington - 979 Deeds / 506 McDonnell

Total - 31012 Deeds / 29267 McDonnell

51.4 - 48.6.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Localities won by Deeds, by general category:

State Senate district: Home field advantage:

Allegheny County - 61.2%
Bath County - 63.5%
Covington - 65.8%

Liberal NoVa:

Arlington County - 65.4%
Alexandria - 62.8%
Falls Church - 64.8%

College towns:

Charlottesville - 73.7%
Fredericksburg - 50.8%
Lexington - 60.5%
Williamsburg - 54.6%

Large African-American presence:

Charles City County - 58.5%
Greensville County - 52.6%
Surry County - 53.6%
Franklin - 51.8%
Hampton - 57.9%
Martinsville - 51.7%
Newport News - 50.3%
Norfolk - 60.0%
Petersburg - 81.0%
Portsmouth - 59.8%
Richmond - 69.1%
Roanoke - 51.9%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know, Roanoke is more complicated than that, but I'm not sure how else to categorize it. It's also somewhat more liberal than the average small city in otherwise-rural Virginia because of upper-class conservative voters who have moved to the county or to neighboring Salem.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been figuring out the Deeds/McDonnell numbers for the competitive House districts. The 3rd district went from 53-47 Deeds in 2005 to 68-32 McDonnell this year. No wonder the Democrats didn't try to salvage Bowling's campaign.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

FWIW, you've stated my point accurately, but let me caution that I do think governor's races are indicative of something when there are serious downballot effects like we saw in VA.  For example, Republicans, according to my maths, destroyed 6 years of gains in one evening in the House of Delegates.

Four years -- all of the defeated Democrats were elected between 2005 and 2007.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's a little facile to assume that all the Republican wins in the House of Delegates were solely the result of McDonnell's coattails. In the 3rd district, Dan Bowling basically didn't run a campaign; I don't know if he just expected to be handed a third term or what, but he let himself be outspent 2-1 by the Republicans. In the 32nd district, Dave Poisson never managed to build a base of support; he beat a far right-wing incumbent in 2005, then only managed a 6-percent win over a candidate he outspent 2-1 in 2007. He lost by 15% against a terrible candidate, while Deeds lost the district by 22%; I'm not sure he would have won unless Deeds had won the district (and he hadn't in 2005, so that was unlikely). In the 83rd, Joe Bouchard barely beat Chris Stolle in 2007, a good Democratic year, and he just had no chance to overcome the Republican lean of the district.

The 23rd, 34th, 51st, and to a lesser extent the 67th (Caputo had the same problem as Poisson, winning against a wingnut then barely beating an opponent he outspent 2-1) were definitely the result of the McDonnell wave, though.

The 21st, of course, is still outstanding, and had the same problem as the 83rd, being on McDonnell's home turf, but Mathieson ran a smart campaign, hitting Villanueva early and hard, and was helped by Jody Wagner's presence on the ticket -- she only lost the district by 47-53. A slightly better performance statewide and he would have pulled it off.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The lesson is not "don't nominate a blue dog" so much as it is "don't nominate someone who will drive his campaign in the ground". Unfortunately, the latter is a lot harder to predict than the former.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a precinct-level map of Fairfax County from New Dominion Project:



It's about what I expected to see, except for the one Democratic stronghold in western Fairfax. Looks like Reston.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Based on the current totals, exactly 497 more people voted for Governor in 2009 than in 2005.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State Sen. Edd Houck (D) is not ruling out a post in the McDonnell administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110604009_pf.html

Democrats had better hope like hell that he doesn't take the job.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State Sen. Edd Houck (D) is not ruling out a post in the McDonnell administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110604009_pf.html

Democrats had better hope like hell that he doesn't take the job.

Whats the margin of the Democratic Majority in the Senate? I expected that we would either see some kind of appointment or a party switch in the STate Senate based on the results, but I am wasn't sure of the margine of the control.

21-19 for the Democrats, with two impending Republican vacancies. Democrats have a shot at Cuccinelli's seat. The Senate was not up this year, luckily for the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Villanueva wins securing the 6th net House of Delegates pickup for the Republicans:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/11/villanueva-declared-winner-21st-district-race

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VPAP posted maps of the election results by state legislative district:

House (McDonnell won 75/100 districts)
Senate (McDonnell won 29/40 districts)

Had Republicans fielded candidates in the 2nd and 4th and gotten stronger candidates in the 10th, 41st, 87th, and 99th, they could have easily made a double-digit pickup in the House.