Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republican Convention: May 29-30
Primary Election: June 9
General Election: November 3

General Election Results Pages (Virginia State Board of Elections)

Statewide Map
Complete Results

Governor - 58.7 McDonnell, 41.2 Deeds
Lt. Governor - 56.4 Bolling, 43.5 Wagner
Attorney General - 57.5 Cuccinelli, 42.4 Shannon

House of Delegates - Net +5 Republican pickup (1 Democratic seat, the 21st, is too close to call)
- Democratic incumbents defeated: 3rd, 23rd, 32nd, 34th, 51st, 67th, 83rd
- Republican incumbents defeated: 93rd
- Open Republican 52th seat flipped to the Democrats
Composition will be 58R, 2I, 39D, 1 undecided

Governor
Incumbent: Tim Kaine (D), term-limited
2005 result: Tim Kaine (D) 51.7%, Jerry Kilgore (R) 46.0%, Russ Potts (I) 2.2%
Democratic primary result (Deeds 49.8, McAuliffe 26.4, Moran 23.8 )

Candidates
Creigh Deeds (D) - State Senator from Bath County, 2005 Attorney General nominee
Bob McDonnell (R) - former Attorney General

Former Candidates
Terry McAuliffe (D) - former DNC chair and prolific fundraiser (lost primary)
Brian Moran (D) - State Delegate from Alexandria, House Democratic Caucus chair (lost primary)

Lieutenant Governor
Incumbent: Bill Bolling (R), running for re-election
2005 result: Bill Bolling (R) 50.5%, Leslie Byrne (D) 49.3%
Democratic primary result (Wagner 74.3, Signer 21.3, Bowerbank 4.5)

Candidates
Bill Bolling (R) - incumbent
Jody Wagner (D) - former state finance secretary, 2000 VA-02 nominee

Former Candidates
Jon Bowerbank (D) - businessman and Russell County Supervisor (withdrew)
Pat Edmonson (D) - Virginia Beach school board member (withdrew)
Patrick Muldoon (R) - attorney and 1996 VA-09 nominee (lost nominating convention)
Rich Savage (D) - political consultant (withdrew)
Michael Signer (D) - former deputy counselor to Mark Warner and 2004 Edwards/Clark campaign aide (lost primary)

Attorney General
Incumbent: none (Bob McDonnell (R) resigned February 3 to run for Governor full-time)
2005 result: Bob McDonnell (R) 49.96%, Creigh Deeds (D) 49.95%

Candidates
Ken Cuccinelli (R) - State Senator from Fairfax
Steve Shannon (D) - State Delegate from Fairfax

Former Candidates
John Brownlee (R) - former U.S. Attorney (lost nominating convention)
David Foster (R) - former Arlington County school board chair (lost nominating convention)

House of Delegates
Current composition: 53 Republicans, 43 Democrats, 2 Independents (both caucus with the Republicans), 2 Democratic vacancies
JLT's House of Delegates targets, pre-primary edition
JLT's House of Delegates targets, post-primary/second quarter fundraising edition
JLT's House of Delegates targets, mid-September edition
JLT's House of Delegates targets, final edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gov. Tim Kaine will stay -I think there will still be something available to him in the Obama administration when he is finally out of a job in January 1010. 

Given election trends, I give the edge to the Virginia GOP in taking back the governor's mansion next year, and I would not be surprised if we end up with a Republican sweep, with a Governor Bob McDonnell, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli at the very top.

Recent history has shown Virginians give the losing party in the Presidential election the consolation prize of the governor's mansion. That being said, I hope like hell that Cuccinelli doesn't win the AG seat. He makes Bolling and McDonnell look like moderates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Terry sure sounds like a candidate: http://raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=17178

I think that just pushed my support to Creigh Deeds, assuming he and Moran split the NoVa primary vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With McDonnell being the official nominee now, there's no chance of a showdown between him and Bolling. Now all the Republicans need to do is settle on an AG nominee.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Speaking of endorsements, the mayors of Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Hampton all endorsed Moran.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Speaking of endorsements, the mayors of Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Hampton all endorsed Moran.

There is two places named Hampton?

My obsessive need for alphabetizing fails me again...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Speaking of endorsements, the mayors of Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Hampton all endorsed Moran.

There is two places named Hampton?

One of which is usually called "Portsmouth" on maps.

So much for Deeds owning the southern part of the state... Yeah, I know people mean the southwestern half. It doesn't have the votes anymore, though. Although a Deeds vs McDonnell rematch, just as close but with a different outcome, would be the coolest possible outcome.

Endorsements aren't everything; if they were, Harris Miller would have been the Senate nominee in 2006.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

We've got another candidate for Lt. Governor:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/01/political-adviser-run-lieutenant-governor

No, I've never heard of him either.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Was the Knight/LaCombe race actually expected to be close?

Not really, no. Terry McAuliffe actually gave LaCombe $5k (I guess to show that he would support other Virginia Dems running), which composed more than half his entire war chest.

Final result: 83-17 for Knight. Turnout was about 6.5%, and LaCombe actually almost won one precinct, he only lost Seatack by 40-38.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special election "excitement" tonight for two House of Delegates seats:

In the 70th, Dwight Jones was elected Mayor of Richmond. Democratic City Councilor Delores McQuinn is running unopposed.

In the 81st, Terrie Suit resigned to become a lobbyist. It's a tight battle between Republican farmer Barry Knight and Democratic payday lending activist/part-time Applebees waiter John LaCombe. Knight is 54, LaCombe is 24. Knight is currently up 85-14 with 6/18 precincts in -- I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Knight.

That leaves the 46th district seat vacated by Brian Moran which will be filled next Tuesday.

Edit: Now 86-14 for Knight with 10/18 in. Turnout is currently a whopping 4%.

Could the Moran seat actually be competitive?  I know its a heavily Dem seat, but Democrats lost a similarly heavily Dem state House seat in Delaware a couple weeks ago. 

Obama got 75% in the 46th; I think it would require every Republican in the district to turn out for a win. I don't think Moran resigning is as controversial as the situation in Delaware, where the candidate ran unopposed then immediately resigned to take a job in New Mexico.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One more notable special election coming up: the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (vacated by newly-minted Congressman Gerry Connolly) will be elected on February 3. Candidates are Braddock district Supervisor Sharon Bulova, currently the vice-chair of the board, on the Democratic side, and Springfield district Supervisor Pat Herrity, son of 80s board chairman Jack Herrity, on the Republican side. So ironically, regardless of who wins, this will require another special election to fill the seat left open by the winner.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One more notable special election coming up: the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (vacated by newly-minted Congressman Gerry Connolly) will be elected on February 3. Candidates are Braddock district Supervisor Sharon Bulova, currently the vice-chair of the board, on the Democratic side, and Springfield district Supervisor Pat Herrity, son of 80s board chairman Jack Herrity, on the Republican side. So ironically, regardless of who wins, this will require another special election to fill the seat left open by the winner.

Who is the favorite there?  I would imagine the Democrats due to the substantial Democratic lean of Fairfax County. 

In a normal turnout election, there'd be no question. With a funky special election turnout, I'd say a slight edge to Bulova. I don't know how personally likeable Herrity is, but he might be able to get some votes from the name, even though Fairfax in the 80s was a completely different county, politically.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

He's actually running for Lt. Governor.

Right, I failed to mention that. I did add him in the right place on the OP, so I'm not completely out of it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Damn, I forgot about special election excitement part two. Looks like Charniele Herring barely won this one, by 16 votes. Turnout was about 5.6%. Maybe next time they'll make the Democratic candidate selection a little more, well, democratic. Herring was chosen via firehouse primary three days after Moran tendered his resignation, and was the only halfway serious candidate.

So yeah, these uber-low-turnout elections can surprise you. I'm downgrading Sharon Bulova's stock to "tossup".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, it's getting really crowded in here. Pat Edmonson, a member of the Virginia Beach school board, is the fifth Democrat to announce for Lieutenant Governor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's not surprising Ben Tribbett is head over heels for McAuliffe, he was an incredibly obnoxious Hillary supporter during the primaries.

And also, I should note he tends to back primary losers like Leslie Byrne and Hillary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Campaign finance reports for the second half of 2008 were due today. This is what they're looking like (note: this is my interpretation of the data, I make no guarantees for accuracy):

Creigh Deeds (D) - $597k starting cash on hand, $610k raised, $404k spent = $803k cash on hand
Terry McAuliffe (D) - $0 starting cash on hand, $947k raised, $229k spent = $718k cash on hand
Bob McDonnell (R) - $684k starting cash on hand, $2,098k raised, $747k spent = $2,035k cash on hand
Brian Moran (D) - $924k starting cash on hand, $761k raised, $916k spent = $769k cash on hand

And now for Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling (R) - $658k starting COH, $291k raised, $233k spent = $716k COH
Jon Bowerbank (D) - $112k starting COH, $377k raised, $309k spent = $180k COH
Jody Wagner (D) - $0 starting COH, $398k raised, $113k spent = $285k COH

Attorney General:

John Brownlee (R) - $73k starting COH, $111k raised, $68k spent = $116k COH
Ken Cuccinelli (R) - $111k starting COH, $225k raised, $115k spent = $221k COH
David Foster (R) - $29k starting COH, $65k raised, $41k spent = $53k COH
Steve Shannon (D) - $0 starting COH, $756k raised, $10k spent = $746k COH

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What has Moran been spending his money on?

And Terry is very, very, very self-conscious about appearing to "buy" the race.  His big donations won't come yet

http://vpap.org/committees/profile/money_out_raw/2127?filter_schedule=D

Looks like consultants, payroll, and more consultants. Also, I think he's trying to buy some endorsements, given his contributions to DNC members Mame Reiley and Lionel Spruill.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, that Shannon guy sure raised a load of money compared to the other candidates.

GO.... still haven't decided who.

Most of his money came from his house of delegates account, but cash advantage is cash advantage.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Moran also supports the death penalty. McAuliffe too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know Joe Trippi is beloved by the "netroots", but has he ever managed a winning campaign?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh, I forgot again, Special Election Excitement The Third tonight. 107/228 precincts in, and Sharon Bulova is leading by about 1,800 votes. Looks like Bulova got a lot of votes out in her Supervisor district, but most of Herrity's district has yet to report.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, Bob McDonnell, in the Jerry Kilgore tradition, announced his resignation today to run for Governor full-time.