Hong Kong legislative election September 4 2016

[jaichind]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_legislative_election,_2016

Election about a month from now.  Will write a lot more about it later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh great, those ridiculously rigged elections where the pro-democracy side always wins more votes but less seats because of the insane system.

[2952-0-0]

Oh great, those ridiculously rigged elections where the pro-democracy side always wins more votes but less seats because of the insane system.

That's the least of their concerns. The pro-democracy side has splintered into moderates who are willing to accommodate with the government and who prefer conventional politics, and radicals who denounce the moderates as sell-outs and who prefer street protests.

Seems like the government has a strategy of provoking increasingly radical opposition so that the silent majority choose the status quo.

[Vega]

If, and this is an unlikely scenario, the Pro-Democracy forces were to win the most seats, what would happen?

[2952-0-0]

If, and this is an unlikely scenario, the Pro-Democracy forces were to win the most seats, what would happen?

But they'd rather denounce each other as sell-outs or naive idealists than work together...

[Vega]

If, and this is an unlikely scenario, the Pro-Democracy forces were to win the most seats, what would happen?

But they'd rather denounce each other as sell-outs or naive idealists than work together...

Right, but what would they actually do in Government?

[jaichind]

There are 70 seats in all.  35 are elected via Geographical Constituencies of which there are 5: Hong Kong Island (6), Kowloon West(6) Kowloon East(5), New Territories West(9), and New Territories East(9).  Each party or independent can nominate lists and the seats distributed without thresholds.  Alliance lists are allowed.  There are 30 seats for various Functional constituencies of which the pro-Beijing Establishment bloc mostly sweeps making it almost a certainty that the pro-Establishment bloc will win a majority.  Anyone that does note vote in one of the Functional constituencies vote for a all HK wide District Council 5 member function constituency based on lists just like the Geographical Constituencies except it is all of HK.

Historically there are two alliance blocs. Pro-Beijing Establishment Bloc and the Pro-Social Democracy and Beijing skeptic Democratic Bloc (most of the parties in this bloc are splinters of the Democratic Party).  In the Establishment Bloc there are two factions: The Economic Right which tends to represent business and middle class interests (DAB NPP LP and 3L) and Economic Left which are the legacy pro-CCP labor/worker/union Left-populist FTP.  The Democratic Bloc are split between the Moderates which are mostly Social Democratic (CP DP) and Leftist Radicals (PP LP LSD).

Historically the vote share split between the two camps tends to be Democratic 60 Establishment 40 but trending Establishment. 

In 2012 in the Geographical Constituencies the Establishment-Democratic 17-18 (mostly due to poor coordination and splits in the Democratic bloc as the vote share split there was 43-56), in Functional constituencies it was Establishment-Democratic 24-6, and District Council Establishment-Democratic 2-3 (on a vote split 45-55).  The total split was  Establishment-Democratic 43-27.

Due to the 2014 Umbrella  movement the Democratic bloc split creating an even more radical Localism Bloc of parties even as within the Democratic Bloc the number and strength of Radical parties grew.  The Localism Bloc mostly has given up on 1 Country 2 Systems and ranges from being for HK independence or at least for a referendum on HK independence.  There are factions which are for HK joining ROC.  The 2014 Umbrella movement has energized the youth against Beijing and the Establishment bloc  but at the same time has also weaken the Democratic Bloc but splitting their vote base.

Most polls last few month Establishment bloc losing significant ground to Democratic bloc which stayed flat as it bled support to Localism bloc.  Recently polls has Establishment bloc regaining ground.   Just a few days ago the electoral commission has banned 6  Localism Bloc lists from running on the premise that their platform was for HK independence which was in violation of election law saying that all candidates had to back the Basic Law of HK which specifies  that HK is part of PRC at least until 2047.  These 6 lists insist that their platform was for independence after 2047 and took oaths that they did support the Basic Law of HK and that HK was part of PRC.  This was turned down by the commission as "insincere".  Of course the candidates from these 6 lists immediately  held a rally calling for HK independence ASAP which I guess proved the election commission's point.  So both sides were playing games.  Of course this actually helps the Democratic Bloc and the more moderate  Localism Bloc since in absence of these radical independence candidates their supporters will not split the vote and vote for the  Democratic Bloc and the more moderate  Localism Bloc lists.

[jaichind]

Latest HK University polls.  HK University polls are mostly viewed as the gold standard of polling in HK.  I grouped the results into each bloc and indicate how many lists from each bloc are contesting and leading.


New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       38%                59%             3%
Number of lists                  7                     8                 2
Winners                            3                     6                 0

This is a Democratic Bloc stronghold and the unlike other districts Establishment bloc is not coordinating well for once.  If they can get their act together it could be Establishment-Democratic 4-5 instead.



New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       46%                44%            11%
Number of lists                  5                     8                 3
Winners                            5                     3                 1

If the Democratic Bloc get structure their vote better they can win an extra seat from the Establishment Bloc.




Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       44%                46%           10%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2
Winners                            3                     2                 0

Unlikely this result will change.



Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       40%                37%            22%
Number of lists                  2                     8                 2
Winners                            3                     2                 1

If the  Localism Bloc can coordinate better they could capture a seat from Establishment Bloc.




Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       57%                37%             3%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1
Winners                            5                     1                 0

There is a clear swing toward the Establishment bloc given the business and financial sector opposition to the 2014 Umbrella  movement.  Also a pro-Establishment independent with cross party appeal is running and seem to be taking a lot of the   Democratic Bloc vote.  Still if the  Democratic bloc can organize better they can capture a seat from  Establishment bloc.




District Council          Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       41%                59%             0%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0
Winners                             3                    2                 0

The  Localism Bloc is not running here to give the Democratic Bloc a clear shot at winning 3-2.  But total chaos in  the Democratic Bloc has led to a surge of disparate lists and unless they can organize themselves better is handing the Establishment Bloc a 3-2 win despite a negative swing from 2012.





Projected Seats by Bloc
Establishment    Democratic     Localism
       22                   16                  2

Establishment wins 22 out of 40 seats only because of the total coordination chaos between the  Democratic  and Localism Blocs as well as chaos within those blocs.  With better tactical voting and coordination  Establishment could be knocked down to 19-20.  But even in 2012 Establishment Bloc won 19 out of 40 seats which was a very impressive performance given its vote share.  Now there will most likely be a 2%-3% swing against the Establishment Bloc but this poll shows that at worst it will repeat its 2012 performance.  This speaks to the impact of the split of the  Localism Bloc from the  Democratic Bloc and the rise of radicals within the  Democratic  Bloc.

[jaichind]

Map of HK regions



For  Geographical Constituencies
Kowloon is split into Kowloon East and Kowloon West
New Territories is spltit into New Territories East and New Territories West
Lantau and Outlying Island are part of New Territories West geographic district.

[jaichind]

All things equal I back Liberal Party (LP) which is a Economic Libertarian-Conservative party and is part of the Establishment bloc.   I have mixed feelings about the new Localism Bloc.  The more moderate wing of this bloc tends to be Leftist economically and less aggressive on the HK Independence plank focusing instead on self-determination and I have only negative feelings toward them.    The more radical wing of the Localism Bloc most of which have been banned from running contains Chinese ultra-nationalists that are for independence (or joining ROC) as a rejection of the PRC/CCP as "Traitors to Chinese traditionalism and Chinese nation" and an independent HK will be a Chinese state true to traditional Chinese ideals.  Many of them are from the Far Right Nationalist wing of the KMT in HK back from the pre-1997 period.  Their brand of Chinese nationalism is somewhat different from my.  Their strand is what I call Greater Han Chauvinism while my strand is Greater Chinese Nationalism.  The difference centers on questions like "Should the Manchurian cultural traditions be Chinese?"  They will answer in the negative and I will answer in the position.  Despite these minor differences I am very aligned with this section of the political spectrum and share their extreme Far Right anti-Communism (although I am no longer anti-CCP.)  I very much want to back them but HK Independence is a bridge too far regardless how much I am opposed to the ideals of PRC/CCP.

[2952-0-0]

If, and this is an unlikely scenario, the Pro-Democracy forces were to win the most seats, what would happen?

But they'd rather denounce each other as sell-outs or naive idealists than work together...

Right, but what would they actually do in Government?

The Chief Executive is elected separately from the legislature.

[jaichind]

Latest version of HK University poll.  

Establishment bloc is gaining vote share but lost one net seat due to the Democratic vote being better distributed.

New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       41%                54%             3%
Number of lists                  8                     8                 2
Winners                            5                     4                 0

New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       43%                43%            14%
Number of lists                  5                     8                 3
Winners                            4                     4                 1

Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       43%                45%           11%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2
Winners                            3                     2                 0
 
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       41%                43%            16%
Number of lists                  2                     8                 2
Winners                            2                     3                 1
 
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       54%                41%             5%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1
Winners                            4                     2                 0

All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       43%                56%             0%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0
Winners                             3                    2                 0

 
Projected Seats by Bloc
Establishment    Democratic     Localism
       21                   17                  2

Of cousre in the other 30  Functional constituencies the Establishment will win over Democratic something like 24-6 just like 2012. 

[jaichind]

Latest (3–7 Aug 2016) version of HK University poll.  

Establishment bloc lost vote share plus the Localism bloc distributing their votes better, Establishment and Democratic blocs loses 1 net seat each to Localism bloc.

New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       36%               60%              4%
Number of lists                  8                     8                 2
Winners                            4                     5                 0

New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       41%                45%            14%
Number of lists                  5                     8                 3
Winners                            4                     3                 2

Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       45%                45%           10%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2
Winners                            3                     2                 0
 
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       43%                43%            14%
Number of lists                  3                     8                 2
Winners                            3                     2                 1
 
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       52%                42%             6%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1
Winners                            3                     2                 1

All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism
Vote share                       41%                58%             0%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0
Winners                             3                    2                 0

 
Projected Seats by Bloc
Establishment    Democratic     Localism
       20                   16                  4

Of course in the other 30  Functional constituencies the Establishment will win over Democratic something like 24-6 just like 2012.

[jaichind]

Latest (8–12 Aug 2016) version of HK University poll.  

Establishment and  Localism bloc gaining from Democratic bloc.
                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       40%               52%              8%                           42.36%          57.64%
Number of lists                  8                     9                 2                                  7                   12
Winners                            4                     5                 0                                  3                     6

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism               Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       41%                47%            12%                          42.96%          57.05%
Number of lists                  7                     8                 3                                  6                   10
Winners                            4                     4                 1                                  5                     4

                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                  Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       46%                45%             9%                          45.68%          54.33%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     2                 0                                  3                    2
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                 Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       48%                37%            15%                         37.28%          62.71%
Number of lists                  4                     8                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     1                 2                                  2                    3
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       69%                24%             7%                          44.19%          54.80%
Number of lists                  5                     8                 1                                 6                      6
Winners                            4                     1                 1                                 4                      3

Total District                                                                                                         2012
District Vote Share        47.4%           42.4%         10.2%                           42.7%              57.1%
District seats                   18                 13                4                                  17                    18

Even if the Pro-Establishment independent running in Hong Kong Island that is winning over a lot of moderate Democratic bloc voters turned off by the Localism is counted for the Democratic Bloc the vote share split would be 44.6%-45.2%-10.2% which means that the Establishment Bloc is gaining a small swing from 2012.

                                                                                                                             2012
All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       43%                57%             0%                          45.43%           54.58%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0                                3                       4
Winners                             3                    2                 0                                2                       3

 
Projected Seats by Bloc                                                                                         2012
Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                Establishment    Democratic
       21                   15                  4                                                             19                     21

There seems to be a massive swing toward the Establishment bloc in Hong Kong Island where the Upper Middle tends to reside.  They must be turned off the by the economic impact of the Localism.  A pro-Establishment independent that appeals to moderate Democratic bloc voters is also a factor.  But even if we count his polling at 16% for the Democratic bloc the Establishment bloc is now polling at 53%  when it got 44% in Hong Kong Island back in 2012.  This is a massive swing.  Outside of Hong Kong Island the Establishment bloc is mostly keeping its 2012 levels of support and gaining significantly in Kowloon West.  In fact looking at the marginal seats the Establishment bloc could win 2 more on top of the 21 it is projected to get.  Even as it is the Establishment is gaining 2 seats from 2012 which itself was its best performance ever.

Of course in the other 30  Functional constituencies the Establishment will win over Democratic something like 24-6 just like 2012.  Establishment bloc getting close to a 2/3 majority which would allow it to add Amendments to the Basic Law by itself.  Of course the Establishment bloc is quite divided inside just like the Democratic bloc which makes any changes by the Establishment  to the Basic Law unlikely even if it somehow gets a 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Latest (10–14 Aug 2016) version of HK University poll.  

Establishment and  Localism blocs continue to gain from Democratic bloc.
                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       39%               50%            11%                           42.36%          57.64%
Number of lists                  8                     9                 2                                  7                   12
Winners                            4                     4                 1                                  3                     6

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism               Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       44%                41%            15%                          42.96%          57.05%
Number of lists                  8                     8                 2                                  6                   10
Winners                            4                     3                 2                                  5                     4

                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                  Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       41%                50%             9%                          45.68%          54.33%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     2                 0                                  3                    2
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                 Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       49%                37%            14%                         37.28%          62.71%
Number of lists                  4                     8                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     1                 2                                  2                    3
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       62%                32%             6%                          44.19%          54.80%
Number of lists                  5                     8                 1                                 6                      6
Winners                            5                     1                 0                                 4                      3

Total District                                                                                                         2012
District Vote Share        46.2%           42.3%         11.5%                           42.7%              57.1%
District seats                   19                 11                5                                  17                    18

Even if the Pro-Establishment independent running in Hong Kong Island that is winning over a lot of moderate Democratic bloc voters turned off by the Localism is counted for the Democratic Bloc the vote share split would be 43.5%-45.0%-11.5% which means that the Establishment Bloc gets a small swing from 2012 but gains from the split of the Localism bloc from the Democratic bloc.

In  Kowloon West  the Democratic bloc is experiencing a large swing against it plus poor vote share coordination among the  Democratic bloc  is leading to a seat disaster.

                                                                                                                             2012
All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       42%                58%             0%                          45.43%           54.58%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0                                3                       4
Winners                             3                    2                 0                                2                       3

 
Projected Seats by Bloc                                                                                         2012
Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                Establishment    Democratic
       22                   13                  5                                                             19                     21


In the Functional constituencies if will most likely be a re-run of 2012

                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic                                                                Establishment    Democratic
       24                     6                                                                                 24                     6


Which leads us to a total of
                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic       Localism                                           Establishment    Democratic
       46                     19                 5                                                            43                   27

which is 1 seat away from Establishment bloc winning a 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

If anything the HK University poll might undercount Establishment strength.  In Feb 2016 there was a by-election for New Territories East which was Establishment-Democratic  42.36%-57.64% in terms of vote share in 2012 and now poll at Establishment-Democratic-Localism 39%-50%-11%.  But in the by-election it was

Democratic bloc CP             37.2%
Establishment bloc DAB      34.8%
Localism bloc HKI               15.4%
Establishment bloc PP          7.7%
Establishment bloc TS          4.0%
Democratic bloc DP rebel      0.5%

The Establishment bloc was split as two moderate pro-Establishment bloc parties ran in addition to DAB and as a result lost to CP.

TS or Third Side is really a Democratic bloc DP splinter that has adopted pro-Establishment positions and is now considered pro-Establishment.  The TS candidate is a former DP member so perhaps he was able to pull in some Democratic bloc vote.  PP is a pro-Establishment bloc force but is fairly moderate and is able to pull in some Democratic bloc votes.  One way or another this by-election result seems to indicate that Establishment bloc lists polling at 39% is most likely an underestimate.

The CP winner of the by-election is running again and will for sure figure among the 9 winners.   The DAB and PP losers of the by-election will also run and for sure will figure among the 9 winners.   The HKI candidate who ran in the by-election on the platform of HK independence showing indicated significant strength in New Territories East  was barred from running in this general election due to his position on HK independence.   He actually signed a statement for the HK election commission recanting his HK independence position but was barred from running anyway as his statement was considered "no genuine."   Being barred from running means that his support is split among two Localism lists as well as some support going to the  Democratic bloc.  

[jaichind]

Latest (15–19 Aug 2016) version of HK University poll.  

Democratic bloc gains a seat from  Establishment bloc due to a tiny shift in the All HK District Council Constituency. Democratic bloc also gains a seat from Localism bloc.

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       41%               50%              9%                           42.36%          57.64%
Number of lists                10                     8                 4                                  7                   12
Winners                            4                     4                 1                                  3                     6

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism               Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       54%                33%            13%                          42.96%          57.05%
Number of lists                  9                     8                 3                                  6                   10
Winners                            6                     3                 1                                  5                     4

                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                  Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       51%                37%           12%                          45.68%          54.33%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     2                 0                                  3                    2
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                 Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       36%                43%           21%                         37.28%          62.71%
Number of lists                  5                     7                 3                                  4                    5
Winners                            2                     2                 2                                  2                    3
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       55%               43%             2%                          44.19%          54.80%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1                                 6                      6
Winners                            4                     2                 0                                 4                      3

Total District                                                                                                         2012
District Vote Share        47.8%           41.0%         11.2%                           42.7%              57.1%
District seats                   19                 12                  4                                17                    18

A bunch of vote shifts in different districts seem to result in no net shift in seats other than Democratic Bloc gaining a seat from the Localism Bloc.

                                                                                                                            2012
All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       41%                59%             0%                          45.43%           54.58%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0                                3                       4
Winners                             2                    3                 0                                2                       3

The  Establishment bloc dropped by one bit just enough to lose a seat to Democratic bloc

Projected Seats by Bloc                                                                                         2012
Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                Establishment    Democratic
       21                   15                  4                                                             19                     21


In the Functional constituencies if will most likely be a re-run of 2012

                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic                                                                Establishment    Democratic
       24                     6                                                                                 24                     6


Which leads us to a total of
                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic       Localism                                           Establishment    Democratic
       45                     21                 4                                                            43                   27

which is 2 seat away from Establishment bloc winning a 2/3 majority.

One can also break the Establishment bloc  into 3 factions.  We have the pro-Beijing faction which is the FTU plus various micro parties which are for pro-Beijing for being PRC.  We have the Center-Right faction which are parties DAB LP NPP NTAS which are all economically and sometimes culturally Center-Right and are pro-Establishment because they see PRC as being Center-Right.  Where the PRC does not act that way on any issue they will back away from the PRC/Establishment position.  Then we have the Moderate faction which are parties like TS which are really Democratic bloc splinters that are making the arguments that it is best to work within and with the PRC framework on progress. They also include pro-Establishment independents that has cross-bloc appeal toward the Democratic Bloc.

Likewise the Democratic bloc and be broken down into three factions. We have the Moderate faction which include parties like DP CIV ADPL NWSC and LAB which will being opposed to  Establishment/PRC tries to work within the framework sometimes.  We have the Centrist faction like PD that is for a Third Way trying to work toward reconciliation with the  Establishment Moderate and Center-Right factions.  Then we have the Radical faction which includes CP LSD PP which refuses to work within the system and seek to progress via street protests.  The most radical of this faction formed the basis of the Localism bloc which pretty much given up on HK being part of PRC.

The 2012 HK election for the 5 constituencies by Bloc/faction are
    
                                        Vote share             Lists            Winners
Establishment Bloc               42.7%                 28                  17
 Pro-Beijing                            7.2%                   5                    3
 Center-Right                       34.1%                 22                  14
 Moderate                              1.4%                   1                    0

Democratic Bloc                   57.3%                 38                  18
 Moderate                            41.4%                 27                  14
 Radical                               15.8%                 11                    4

The current poll now has

                                        Vote share             Lists           Winners
Establishment Bloc               47.8%                 33                  19
 Pro-Beijing                            7.1%                   9                    2
 Center-Right                       34.6%                 19                  15
 Moderate                              6.1%                   5                    2

Democratic Bloc                   41.0%                 38                  12
 Centrist                                0.2%                   2                    0
 Moderate                            34.9%                 23                  11
 Radical                                 5.9%                 11                    1

Localism Bloc                       11.2%                 13                    4

It seems that the Democratic Bloc after the Umbrella movement of 2014 is losing support on both flanks.  The Radical faction of the is bleeding support to the Localism Bloc while the Moderate faction of the Establishment Bloc seems to be able to capture a good part of the Democratic Bloc vote turned off by the Umbrella movement.  The good news for the  Democratic Bloc is that on the All HK District Council vote the Localism Bloc and ex-Democratic Bloc voters that voted the Moderate faction of the Establishment Bloc seem to still vote Democratic Bloc giving it a lead of 59-41 over the Establishment Bloc.

[jaichind]

Latest (19–23 Aug 2016) version of HK University poll.  

Splintering of the Democratic and Localism bloc votes clearly help the Establishment bloc who gained a seat from Democratic Bloc at the district level and one seat at the All HK District Council level.

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       39%               46%             15%                           42.36%          57.64%
Number of lists                10                     8                 4                                  7                   12
Winners                            4                     3                 2                                  3                     6

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism               Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       51%                34%            15%                          42.96%          57.05%
Number of lists                  9                     8                 3                                  6                   10
Winners                            6                     2                 1                                  5                     4

                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                  Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       45%                43%           12%                          45.68%          54.33%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     2                 0                                  3                    2
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                 Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       39%                47%           14%                         37.28%          62.71%
Number of lists                  5                     7                 3                                  4                    5
Winners                            2                     3                 1                                  2                    3
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       62%               36%             2%                          44.19%          54.80%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1                                 6                      6
Winners                            5                     1                 0                                 4                      3

Total District                                                                                                         2012
District Vote Share        47.2%           40.6%         12.2%                           42.7%              57.1%
District seats                   20                 11                  4                                17                    18

Establishment bloc gains a seat from the Democratic bloc due to vote dissipation within the Democratic bloc.  
 
                                                                                                                           2012
All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       46%                54%             0%                          45.43%           54.58%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0                                3                       4
Winners                             3                    2                 0                                2                       3

The  Establishment bloc regained a 3-2 edge.  Also it seems that Establishment Moderate faction voters now seems to have swung behind the Establishment candidates in the All HK District Council.

Projected Seats by Bloc                                                                                         2012
Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                Establishment    Democratic
       23                   13                  4                                                             19                     21


In the Functional constituencies if will most likely be a re-run of 2012

                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic                                                                Establishment    Democratic
       24                     6                                                                                 24                     6


Which leads us to a total of
                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic       Localism                                           Establishment    Democratic
       47                     19                 4                                                            43                   27

which means that Establishment bloc winning a 2/3 majority.

A breakdown by factions within each bloc in 2012 and current poll yields

The 2012 HK election for the 5 constituencies by Bloc/faction are
    
                                        Vote share             Lists            Winners
Establishment Bloc               42.7%                 28                  17
 Pro-Beijing                            7.2%                   5                    3
 Center-Right                       34.1%                 22                  14
 Moderate                              1.4%                   1                    0

Democratic Bloc                   57.3%                 38                  18
 Moderate                            41.4%                 27                  14
 Radical                               15.8%                 11                    4

The current poll now has

                                        Vote share             Lists           Winners
Establishment Bloc               47.2%                 33                  20
 Pro-Beijing                            6.8%                   9                    3
 Center-Right                       36.1%                 19                  15
 Moderate                              4.3%                   5                    2

Democratic Bloc                   40.6%                 38                  11
 Centrist                                0.2%                   2                    0
 Moderate                            32.4%                 23                    9
 Radical                                 8.0%                 11                    2

Localism Bloc                       12.2%                 13                    4

A small swing toward the Democratic Radical faction and Localism Bloc yet splintering of their vote only seems to benefit the Establishment Bloc.  

[jaichind]

Final (29 Aug - 2 Sept 2016) version of HK University poll.  

There has been a further swing in votes toward the Localism Bloc but the Democratic Bloc has been getting its act together in organizing its vote better and this poll has the Democratic Bloc gaining a couple of seats from a week ago due to this affect even as the Establishment  has maintained its vote share.   The main trend still is toward radicalization with the Localism Bloc gaining and within the Democratic Bloc the radical faction gaining relative to the Moderate faction.  

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories East   Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       41%               48%             11%                           42.36%          57.64%
Number of lists                10                     8                 4                                  7                   12
Winners                            3                     5                 1                                  3                     6

                                                                                                                               2012
New Territories West   Establishment    Democratic     Localism               Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       46%                32%            22%                          42.96%          57.05%
Number of lists                  9                     8                 3                                  6                   10
Winners                            5                     2                 2                                  5                     4

                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon East            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                  Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       49%                37%           14%                          45.68%          54.33%
Number of lists                  4                     6                 2                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     2                 0                                  3                    2
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Kowloon West            Establishment    Democratic     Localism                 Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       47%                38%           15%                         37.28%          62.71%
Number of lists                  5                     7                 3                                  4                    5
Winners                            3                     3                 0                                  2                    3
 
                                                                                                                             2012
Hong Kong Island       Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       54%               42%             4%                          44.19%          54.80%
Number of lists                  5                     9                 1                                 6                      6
Winners                            4                     1                 0                                 4                      3

Total District                                                                                                         2012
District Vote Share        46.8%           39.2%         14.0%                           42.7%              57.1%
District seats                   18                 14                  3                                17                    18

 
                                                                                                                           2012
All HK District Council Establishment    Democratic     Localism                Establishment    Democratic
Vote share                       47%                53%             0%                          45.43%           54.58%
Number of lists                   3                    6                 0                                3                       4
Winners                             3                    2                 0                                2                       3

 
Projected Seats by Bloc                                                                                         2012
Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                Establishment    Democratic
       21                   16                  3                                                             19                     21


In the Functional constituencies if will most likely be a re-run of 2012

                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic                                                                Establishment    Democratic
       24                     6                                                                                 24                     6


Which leads us to a total of
                                                                                                                           2012
Establishment    Democratic       Localism                                           Establishment    Democratic
       45                     22                 3                                                            43                   27

which means that Establishment bloc 2 seats off 2/3 majority.

A breakdown by factions within each bloc in 2012 and current poll yields

The 2012 HK election for the 5 constituencies by Bloc/faction are
    
                                        Vote share             Lists            Winners
Establishment Bloc               42.7%                 28                  17
 Pro-Beijing                            7.2%                   5                    3
 Center-Right                       34.1%                 22                  14
 Moderate                              1.4%                   1                    0

Democratic Bloc                   57.3%                 38                  18
 Moderate                            41.4%                 27                  14
 Radical                               15.8%                 11                    4

The current poll now has

                                        Vote share             Lists           Winners
Establishment Bloc               46.8%                 33                  18
 Pro-Beijing                            6.9%                   9                    3
 Center-Right                       35.5%                 19                  13
 Moderate                              4.4%                   5                    2

Democratic Bloc                   39.2%                 36                  14
 Centrist                                1.0%                   2                    0
 Moderate                            28.5%                 23                  10
 Radical                                 9.7%                 11                    4

Localism Bloc                       14.0%                 13                    3

This poll shows the decline of the Moderate faction of the Democratic Bloc.  Traditionally ever since 1997 the Moderate faction of the Democratic Bloc has a vote share that by itself exceeded the entire Establishment Bloc.  That position was lost in 2012.  Now there is a risk that the Radical faction of the Democratic Bloc plus the even more radical Localism Bloc vote share will now rival the vtoe share of the Moderate faction of the Democratic Bloc.

[jaichind]

With the HK University Poll and other polls showing the Democratic Bloc in trouble and at risk of having a Establishment Majority in the district seats, 5  Democratic Bloc  candidates withdrew their candidacy today even thought they will still be on the ballot.  All 5 are far behind the polls and are hoping that their voters vote instead for other   Democratic Bloc candidates to concentrate the Democratic Bloc vote.  All 5 are fairly moderate so there is a risk that some of their votes might even end up voting for Establishment candidates.  

Anyway voting just started and will completely end 10:30PM HK time although in most polling stations voting will start at 9am and end at 4pm.

[jaichind]

Final 香港研究協會(Hong Kong Research Association) poll has

                             Establishment    Democratic     Localism                                                                                                            
District seats                   20                 12                  3                  
Total HK District                3                   2                   0          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                               23                 14                  3      

Which is even more negative on the  Democratic Bloc  than the HK University poll.  

I suspect the result for the  Establishment Bloc is the average of these two polls which would be 22 seats (23 and 21).  Most likely Localism Bloc is under-polling so the Localism Bloc will do better than 3 seats and most likely win around 5 seats which would leave Democratic Bloc at a disastrous 13 seats.  All these Democratic Bloc candidates dropping out at the last minute might scrape an extra seat in the Total HK District section to get it to perhaps 14 seats and reduce  Establishment Bloc to 21.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 8:30AM is 1.31% which is slightly below the 2012 turnout rate at 8:30AM.  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 9:30AM is 3.73% which is somewhat below the 2012 turnout rate at 9:30AM at 3.90%  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.  Looks like so far we are on track for a turnout of around 50%.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 6:30PM is 39.55% which is higher than the 2012 turnout rate at 6:30PM at 36.24%  The 2012 election turnout was 53.05%.  Looks like so far we are on track for a turnout of around 57%.  This will be record turnout. 

[jaichind]

In a confusing signal the Moderates faction parties of the  Democratic Bloc seems to be calling for no tactical voting as they feel that any tactical voting will most likely hurt the Moderates faction of the Democratic Bloc.