Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Julian Assange finally embraces the attention whore within and releases a music video.

The God complex has finally jumped the shark...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Julian Assange finally embraces the attention whore within and releases a music video.

The God complex has finally jumped the shark...

The Shark had been jumped long ago...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think by this point he's doing some kind of complex salchow like thing...

[morgieb]

LOL Assange has basically become a parody at this point anyway.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Anyway, as I'm bored, predictions (MoE 100%)...

Coalition to Gain:
NSW
Banks
Lindsay
Greenaway
Parramatta
Reid
Robertson
Kingsford-Smith
Lyne
New England

TAS
Bass
Braddon
Lyons

VIC
Corangamite
Deakin

NT
Lingiari

Independent to Gain
VIC
Indi (From LIB)

Labor to Gain
VIC
Dunkley
Melbourne (EDIT: Forgot this)

QLD
Brisbane
Herbert
Dawson
Flynn
Bonner

Slightly ridiculous prediction done with only a smattering of real knowledge... but hey I made one.

[Platypus]

There are a few seats in there that are definitely suspicious, but hey, it's a bit of fun

Going to do Queensland and the ACT in a bit.

[Platypus]

ACT: (Non-voting member 1949-1974)

1949

Independent: 1

First representation in parliament, but not allowed to vote on anything not specifically relating to the ACT.

1951

Labor: 1

Jim Fraser is elected for his first term.

1954

Labor: 1

And his second.

1955

Labor: 1

And his third.

1958

Labor: 1

And his fourth.

1961

Labor: 1

And his fifth. Interestingly enough, his brother was the member for Eden-Monaro for much of this time.

1963

Labor: 1

And his sixth.

1966

Labor: 1

And his seventh. From this election on, the ACT members would have full voting rights.

1969

Labor: 1

And his eighth and final time, in opposition the whole way through.

1972

Labor: 1

1974

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1975

Liberal: 1
Labor: 1

A tie! This was also the first time the ACT elected senators, one for Labor and one for the Liberals.

1977

Liberal: 1
Labor: 1

Traditionally more left-wing northern Canberra (Fraser) is Labor, southern Canberra (Canberra) Liberal.

1980

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

As things tighten up nationally, the ACT goes back to it's normal situation.

1983

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1984

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1987

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1990

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1993

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1996

Labor: 3
Liberal: 0

The ACT gets a brief period with three members (it should have a third now, btw, instead of the NT having a second, population-wise) and they all go to the ALP despite Howard's landslide win. The third seat, Namadgi, is quite marginal though (far south of Canberra).

1998

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

The Howard years are set for Bob McMullan and Annette Ellis to serve on the opposition benches.

2001

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

No change, and in this election, no chance of change whatsoever - the Liberals were very much on the nose, and the Australian Democrats very nearly snatched the second senate seat from the coalition.

2004

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2007

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2010

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2013 (predicition)

Liberal: 0
Labor: 2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jmD-uFgcvbU

Brilliant...

[Platypus]

OK< so I have no love for Rudd, but I can't believe we're choosing Tony Abbott over him. This country... :rolleyes:

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.kotaku.com.au/2013/08/this-game-of-thrones-rap-video-about-the-australian-election-is-amazing/

OK< so I have no love for Rudd, but I can't believe we're choosing Tony Abbott over him. This country... :rolleyes:

I always say you get the government you deserve... and I think the fact that Abbott is getting away with murder and not being held to account ... as well his short-comings and terrible policy being ignored... means we 'as a country' brought it on themselves.

Plus, if the Government had had a modicum of self-control and the ability to sell their achievements... this would never have happened.

I know I'm going to be accused of wonderland politics here... while I don't think they can pull it off... I still think it's going to be close enough to make 2016 very winnable. Just remember that the Newspoll 2 weeks out had Keating down 56/44... weird stuff happens in the last 10 days...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was never embarrassed when Howard was re-elected ... not always happy, and I was never ashamed of him. I am deeply, deeply embarrassed at the prospect of this opposition winning, with the most paper-thin and hollow argument I've EVER seen in Australian politics.

[Leftbehind]

http://www.kotaku.com.au/2013/08/this-game-of-thrones-rap-video-about-the-australian-election-is-amazing/

LOL!

[GAworth]

It will be interesting to see if any thing comes of the squabble between the Nats and Liberals, I doubt the two will split but they are bickering over cabinet seats (which is a bit presumptuous). It would be interesting to see if the two start to show some more sunlight between them and what that means for the LNP.

[morgieb]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/cash-offer-for-staying-employed-20130827-2sodu.html

Well now we know that someone didn't study Economics.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yet another stupid bloody policy... It's this perception of " long-term unemployment is due to laziness or not trying hard enough."

What about using the money to make them more EMPLOYABLE? Or you know, not spend it, considering the money will have to be 'found' to cover if.

He chose to announce it at Berkeley Vale in Wyong (in Dobell) - a lower income area, with limited economic opportunities and a problem with L-T unemployed since Howard. Yet again, throwing money around based on what I don't know.

[Vosem]

It will be interesting to see if any thing comes of the squabble between the Nats and Liberals, I doubt the two will split but they are bickering over cabinet seats (which is a bit presumptuous). It would be interesting to see if the two start to show some more sunlight between them and what that means for the LNP.

Meh, the two really serious crises that have occurred as I understand it in the post-WW2 era were in 1967 (when the Country party (Nats' predecessor) threatened to pull out of the coalition if the Libs installed William McMahon as PM; the Country party 'won' since the Libs decided on John Gorton as the alternative) and in 1987 with the whole Joh for Canberra affair. Today, not counting the LNP, there are only 6 Nats MPs (probably 7 after this election, since they'll gain Lyne and New England but probably lose Mallee) -- that's not exactly a large group, and the general trend has been for more losses. I personally think, in 20-30 years, there'll be a  national LNP opposed by various rural parties like the WA Nationals (who are unaffiliated with the Coalition) and the KAP. Though people have been predicting the demise of the Nationals for years and it never happens. But I doubt this'll really threaten the Coalition's existence like McEwen and Joh did in their day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

... the KAP will not be around in 20 years.

If anything, an Abbott Government would provide more opportunities for tensions than certain existed under Howard or Fraser... you're already seeing it, the likelihood being that a NAT will not be trade minister (breaking tradition) and the not so private squabbling on paid parental leave.

[Vosem]

... the KAP will not be around in 20 years.

Yeah, but its niche (a rural Queensland party independent of the federal Coalition/Liberals) probably still will.

If anything, an Abbott Government would provide more opportunities for tensions than certain existed under Howard or Fraser... you're already seeing it, the likelihood being that a NAT will not be trade minister (breaking tradition) and the not so private squabbling on paid parental leave.

Yeah, but it seems the Nationals will have a lot less bargaining power than they did in those days, making the likelihood of them bailing less (in my mind). And then, because of the very factors you mentioned, rural electorates will abandon them for rural parties independent of the Coalition (like the KAP or the WA Nationals, but not necessarily them specifically), simply weakening the Nats further and leaving the Coalition more dominated by the Liberals than it already is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ABC News 23 does it again... and pretty much reflects my view on this race.

[Platypus]

Just a note that these are snapshots in relation to the government formed at the election. Subsequent changes not involving an election (1975, for example, and lots of oddities in the first years) are ignored.

Queensland:

1901

Protectionists: 3
Labour: 4 (coalition w Protectionists)
Independent: 2
Free Trade: 0

1903

Protectionist: 2
Labour: 6 (in coalition w Prots)
Independent: 1
Free Trade: 0

1906

Protectionist: 1
Labour: 4 (in coalition w Protectionists)
Anti-Socialists: 4

1910

Labour: 6
Commonwealth Liberal: 3

1913

Commonwealth Liberal: 3
Labor: 7

Queensland's first time bucing the national result was on the eve of WW1, when Labor still commanded huge loyalty in rural Queensland, where the party was formed. But soon enough a lot of those types would be overseas...

1914

Labor: 7
Commonwealth Liberal: 3

1917

Nationalist: 6
Labor: 4

1919

Nationalist: 7
Labor: 3

1922

Nationalists: 7
Country Party: 1 (in coalition w Nationalists)
Labor: 2

1925

Nationalists: 8
Country: 1 (coalition w N)
Labor: 1

1928

Nationalists: 6
Country: 2 (in coalition w N)
Labor: 2

1929

Labor: 3
Nationalists: 5
Country: 2

The arrival of the Country Party a few elections previous had essentially killed off the advantage that Labor had in Queensland, as Agrarian Socialists found they were more Agrarians than Socialists. At the state level, Labor would continue to do well in Queensland, but federally they were never again to expect the large majorities they once commanded in the delegation, even from opposition. Or would they...?

1931

United Australia Party: 2
Country: 2 (in coalition w UAP)
Independent: 1
Labor: 5

Labor show they do still have life in Queensland, taking half the seats even though the Scullin government fails to be returned. IIRC there was a bit of a blue on in Queensland at the time, but I can't remember the details. There are often blues on in Queensland

1934

UAP: 3
Country: 2 (in coalition w UAP)
Labor: 5

The state splits evenly, with Labor having a plurality of seats but the government parties holding as many.

1937

UAP: 2
Country: 3 (in coalition w UAP)
Labor: 5

The Country party takes a seat off the UAP, as their prominence on the right of QLD politics arrives at the federal level.

1940

Labor: 6
UAP: 2
Country: 2

Labor is slightly ahead of the national mood in terms of seats won, but is in line with the national swing towards Labor. The Labor party would end up governing not too long after the election.

1943

Labor: 6
Country: 3
UAP: 1

1946

Labor: 5
Country: 3
Liberal: 1
Liberal/Country: 1

Labor hold onto government after the war ends, with Chifley losing one seat in Queensland as part of a loss of 6 nationally. His reforms would prove least popular up north, though, just as parliament was expanded. Communism was not well loved in Queensland, even though it was the birthplace of Australian Socialism.

1949

Liberal: 9
Country: 6 (Coalition)
Labor: 3

1951

Liberal: 9
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 4

1954

Liberal: 8
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 5

1955

Liberal: 8
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 5

1958

Liberal: 10
Country: 5
Labor: 3

1961

Country: 4
Liberal: 3 (coalition)
Labor: 11

I actually don't know what caused such a massive changeover in Queensland in 1961, if anyone knows I'd be interested in hearing it

1963

Liberal: 6
Country: 4 (coalition)
Labor: 8

Still not sure. Maybe the DLP collapsed in Queensland or something? A reaction to the Coalition's migration programme?

1966

Liberal: 8
Country: 4 (Coalition)
Labor: 6

1969

Liberal: 7
Country: 4 (Coalition)
Labor: 7

1972

Labor: 8
Liberal: 6
Country: 4

Labor wins against the Liberals in terms of having the most members, but the coalition keeps control of Queensland's members despite Whitlam's win.

1974

Labor: 6
Liberal: 7
Country: 5

Whitlam loses support in Queensland, and the Senate is interesting... (I'll leave that hanging)

1975

Liberal: 9
Country: 8
Labor: 1

1977

Liberal: 9
Country: 7 (coalition)
Labor: 3

1980

Liberal: 7
Country: 7 (coalition)
Labor: 5

1983

Labor: 10
Country: 6
Liberal: 3

1984

Labor: 9
National: 8
Liberal: 7

Labor win a plurality of seats after parliament is expanded, but only just. Relations between the Nationals and Liberals are tense, but not as tense as they will be by the next election, when Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen launches his "Joh for Canberra" campaign, opening the door for Labor.

1987

Labor: 13
National: 6
Liberal: 5

1990

Labor: 15
Liberal: 6
National: 3

1993

Labor: 13
Liberal: 7
National: 5

1996

Liberal: 17
National: 6 (coalition)
Independent/Liberal: 1
Labor: 2

1998

Liberal: 14
National: 5 (coalition)
Labor: 8

2001

Liberal: 15
National: 4 (coalition)
Independent: 1
Labor: 7

2004

Liberal: 17
National: 4 (coalition)
Independent: 1
Labor: 6

2007

Labor: 15
Independent: 1
Liberal: 10
National: 3

2010

Labor: 8 (minority government)
Independent: 1
Liberal National Party: 21

After losing home-state hero KRudd immediately before the election, Labor lose 7 seats in the state and with it, majority government.

2013 (prediction)

LNP: 18
Independent: 1
Labor: 11

[morgieb]

What did everyone make of the debate?

[Platypus]

Pretty impressed with both sides, tbh. Actually answered some questions, including some tough questions.

I think Rudd had to win and did, but what ought to have been a killer blow about the costings wasn't because people seem to be largely ignoring that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Abbott was on friendlier territory when it came to the questions - Abbott could have killed Rudd on the economy. But Rudd handled those less friendly questions much better than Abbott did last week.

While I thought he was less energetic and less focused - on that fact alone, I give it to Rudd.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, if we can presume Abbott becomes PM next month, how long until Turnball goes in for a spill?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It depends on the size of the majority ... if he stuffs up and it's tight... who knows.