Official US 2010 Census Results

[cinyc]

Yeah, it might have been something irregular though. Or just something about the time people's contracts expired and where they were from exactly.
Or perhaps more likely just a minor change to residency rules (I think there was one... anyways there was a new more detailed leaflet on what constitutes residency) that affected these places.

Perhaps workers are longer working 2-weeks on, 2-weeks off with vacation, but something that makes them be in Prudhoe for 183 days or more.  

The big winner from all this will be HD-40.  It's just 1.35% short of the 2010 ideal HD population and, unlike most Bush areas, won't need to pick up much new territory.  

Southeast Alaska got absolutely hammered, at least relative to the rest of the state and
perhaps even in absolute terms.  HDs 1-5 now only have the population for about 4.2 districts.  If you exclude Yakutat, the whole panhandle pretty much neatly fits in 4 districts.  Mat-Su is entitled to 5 seats and  Anchorage about 16.5.

I might make some Alaska maps tomorrow if I have time.

[cinyc]

Florida, Georgia and Kentucky were released today.

Florida
All but two of Florida's counties grew in the past decade: Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater; -0.5%), which lost almost 5,000 residents, and Monroe, a.k.a. the Florida Keys, which lost 8.2% of its population.   Growth elsewhere was generally pretty solid, with a few exceptions.  The fastest-growing counties were Flagler (Palm Coast) in North Florida, nestled between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville and Sumter in the central part of the state, northwest of Orlando and northeast of Tampa.  Sumter County is home to the Villages, Florida's friendliest hometown for active snowbird retirees.  Both counties are not in the top 20.  Without downloading more data, all I can say is that they grew from 60-92%.
16.

Among the top 20 counties, the big three Miami metro counties, Miami-Dade (+10.8%), Broward (+7.7%) and Palm Beach (+16.7%) lagged the state as a whole (+17.6%).  Growth in the Tampa Bay-area counties was mixed.  Hillsborough (Tampa; 23.1%) grew faster than the state, while Pinellas (-0.5%), on the far side of Tampa Bay shrunk and the far-flung northern exurbs in Pasco County (+34.8%) grew faster than most.  On the south side of the bay, Bradenton's county, Manatee (+22.3%) outpaced the state while Sarasota County (+16.4%) slightly lagged. And the Orlando area clearly shined: Orange County (Orlando) blossomed by 27.8%, while its Lake County (+41.1%) suburbs and exurbs grew even more rapidly.   Polk County (+24.4%), along the I-4 corridor in between Tampa and Orlando, also experienced healthy growth.  But Orlando's northeastern suburbs and exurbs in Seminole County (+15.8%) grew slightly more slowly than the rest of the state.   Osceola County,(Kissimmee), which includes part of the Disney World complex, also experienced very rapid growth (30 to 59.9%), but still isn't among Florida's top 20 counties.  In the Jacksonville area, Duval County (Jacksonville; 11.1) grew more slowly than the state, which might be offset by very rapid growth (30 to 59.9%) in suburban/exurban areas immediately to the south of Duval in, Clay and St. Johns (St. Augustine) counties.  Both counties are too small to be in the top 20.

Outside of the major metros, mid-Atlantic coast St. Lucie County (Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie; 44.2%) was the fastest-growing county of the top 20.   The Daytona Beach area/Voluisa County (+11.6%) and Space Coast/Brevard County (+14.1%) lagged the state, while the Ocala Area/Marion County (+28.0%) grew faster than it.  And Southwest Florida's main counties, Lee (Fort Myers; +40.3%) and Collier (Naples; +27.9%) boomed despite the housing bust.   Pensacola-area growth was extremely weak, with Escambia County (+1.1%) barely growing.   Other panhandle counties, especially Walton and Wakulla, may have fared better - but they are too small to be in the top 20.

Hillsborough and Orange Counties are now home to over 1,000,000 residents.  Orange County gained the most new residents - almost 250,000, closely followed by Miami-Dade and Hillsborough.

On the municipal level, the most rapid growth among the top 20 cities was in Port St. Lucie (+85.4%), adding over 75,000 new residents.  Only Jacksonville (+11.7%), Florida's largest city, added more new residents the past decade.  Other big gainers included the Broward County suburb of Miramar (+67.8%), Southwest Florida's Cape Coral (+50.9%) and the college town of Gainesville (+30.3%).   Palm Bay (+29.9%), Orlando (+28.2%), Pompano Beach, Broward County (+27.7%), West Palm Beach (+21.7%) and Tallahassee (+20.4%) all grew more rapidly than the state.  St. Petersburg (-1.4%) and Clearwater (-1.0%) in Tampa Bay's Pinnelas County and Hialeah, Miami-Dade County (-0.8%) lost population.  Tampa (+10.6%), Miami (+10.2%) and Fort Lauderdale (+8.6%) grew, but lagged the state as a whole.

Florida's non-Hispanic white population grew by just 4.1%.  Its Hispanic population increased by 57.4%.  As a result, the non-Hispanic white share of the population dropped from 65.4% to 57.9%, while Hispanics grew from 16.8% to 22.5%.  Florida's non-Hispanic Asian population grew even more rapidly than its Hispanic population - 70.1%, albeit from a much lower base.  Its non-Hispanic black population grew 25.9%.

Georgia
As expected, the fastest-growing Georgia counties are largely second-ring suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta far outside of the I-285 Perimeter.  Northeast-exurban Forsyth County lead the pack, growing by 78.4%.  Although Forsyth is becoming more diverse as it grows, it is still 85% white (before taking into account Hispanic status).  The county has more than double the number of Asians as African Americans, and about as Hispanics as members of both of those groups combined.  Northwest-exurban Paulding County was next, growing by 74.3%.  Paulding was closely followed by Southeast exurban Henry County (+70.9%), as the Atlanta metro sprawled further up and down the I-75 corridor.  North-exurban Cherokee County (+51.1%), West-exurban Douglas (+43.6%), and Southwest-exurban Coweta (+42.7%) also posted impressive growth rates.  But the most impressive growth occurred in Northeast-suburban Gwinnett County.  Gwinnett grew by 36.9%, picking up over 216,000 new residents - more people than live in all but the top 6 counties of the state.  It leaped past its inner-ring suburban neighbor, DeKalb County, which grew at an anemic 3.9% rate, to become the second-largest county in the state.  Unlike Forsyth, Gwinnett is racially diverse - 53% white, 24% black and 11% Asian (before taking into account Hispanic status).  20% of Gwinnett is Hispanic - higher than any other large county in the Atlanta Metro other than its immediate northeast neighboring county, Hall (+29.0%).   Carroll County, on the Alabama border the far western Atlanta exurbs, grew by 26.7%.   And even more further-flung exurban counties like Newton and Barrow grew by over 50%, but are still too small to crack the top 20.  And counties neighboring the currently fastest-growing counties also grew rapidly.

The core counties of the Atlanta metro - Fulton (Atlanta; +12.8%), DeKalb, Cobb (Marietta; +13.2%) and Clayton (+9.6%) by the Atlanta Airport all grew more slowly than the state as a whole (+18.3%).

Outside of the Atlanta Metro, Augusta-suburban Columbia (+38.9%) and Houston County (+26.3%), south of Macon, home to Warner-Robbins and its air force base, were the only top-20 counties that grew faster than the state.  Augusta's county, Richmond (+0.4%), Macon's county, Bibb (1.1%), and Columbus' county, Muscogee (+1.9%) were flat.  Clarke County (+15.0%), home of Athens and the University of Georgia, grew slightly more slowly than the rest of the state.  A number of Southwestern Georgia's counties lost population, while a handful of smaller counties neighboring Savannah and Brunswick's home counties grew by more than 25%.

On the municipal level, Atlanta grew by just 0.8%, but is still more than double the size of Augusta-Richmond (+0.4%), its closest, equally stagnant rival.   In fact, many of Georgia's older cities didn't grow much or even lost population.  East Point, near the Atlanta Airport, lost 14.9% of its population.  Macon lost more residents than East Point but only 6.1% of its population.  Marietta, Cobb County lost 3.7%.  Columbus (+1.9%), Savannah (+3.6%) and Rome (+3.8%) posted anemic growth.   Alpharetta (+65.1%), a rich Fulton County suburb grew fastest among the top 20, followed by Dunwoody, Gwinnett County (+41.0%), Warner Robbins (+36.1%), Gainesville, Hall County (+32.2%) and Smyrna, Cobb County (+25.1%).  Valdosta (+24.7%) in Southern Georgia also grew - though, as with Smyrna, it is unclear to me whether some of that growth was due to annexation.

Georgia's non-Hispanic white population increased by 5.6%, dropping to 55.9%.  Its Hispanic population almost doubled (+96.1%) to 8.8%, as did its non-Hispanic Asian population (+81.7%).  Non-Hispanic African American growth outpaced the state, too, growing by 24.8%.  Georgia is now 30.0% non-Hispanic black.  VAP is 28.8%.

[cinyc]

Is it possible that there will be 6 majority Hispanic districts?  22.5% of 27 is just over 6 seats.  I'm thinking there will have to be 4 Hispanic districts in the Miami area but I'm not sure that Hispanics are densely populated enough outside of that area to get a 5th or 6th seat elsewhere in the state.

Orange plus Polk plus Hillsborough Counties in the I-4 corridor contain about as many Hispanics as would be necessary for one full 100% Hispanic district - before taking into account VAP.  I have no idea whether Central Florida's Hispanics are concentrated enough to draw a district.  Probably not - but it might be possible.

[cinyc]

Kentucky
How did we all miss the story of Louisville's phenomenal growth?  The city grew by 189.2%.... by creating a metro government with Jefferson County in the past decade.  Jefferson County itself grew by 6.8%, a little bit more slowly than Kentucky as a whole (+7.4%).   It picked up over 47,000 new residents, more than any other county in the state.

Kentucky's real more rapid growth was largely in the outer areas of the Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati metros.  Scott County (Georgetown; 42.7%), home of Toyota's largest plant outside of Japan, grew fastest among the top 20 counties.  It is immediately north of Lexington.  Scott was followed by the county where people land when they fly into "Cincinnati", Boone County (+38.2%), which picked up the second-most new residents.    Northeast Louisville-suburban Oldham County (+30.6%) was next, followed in the three metros by Jessamine County (+24.4%), south of Lexington, and Louisville south-suburban Bullitt County (+21.4%).  In the Lexington area, both Madison County (+17.0%), southeast of Lexington and Lexington's Fayette County (+13.5%) experienced double-digit growth.  

Outside of the metros, Warren County (+23.0%), home of Bowling Green, Western Kentucky University and every Corvette ever made, Hardin County (+12.1%), home of Elizabethtown and the gold that may or may not be in Fort Knox, and Southeastern Kentucky's Pulaski (Somerset; +12.2%) and Laurel counties (London; +11.6%) also experienced double-digit growth.  The rest of Southeastern Kentucky wasn't so lucky. Many counties in Appalachian Kentucky lost population, for example, among the state's top 20, Pike (Pikeville; -5.4%) and Boyd (Ashland; -0.4%) both lost population.  Out west, Paducah's McCracken County (+0.1%) and Owensboro's Daviess County (+5.6%) grew more slowly than the state.

On the municipal level, Louisville/Jefferson (+189.2%) consolidated its way into becoming the largest city in the state, passing Lexington-Fayette, which grew by 13.5%.  Cincinnati-suburban Independence (+65.2%) grew the fastest among the others, followed by Toyota's Georgetown (+60.9%), Lexington-area Nicholasville (+42.4%), Cincinnati-suburban Florence (+27.2%), Bowling Green (+17.8%) and Lexington-area Richmond (+15.5%).  Six of Kentucky's top 20 cities lost population: the state capital of Frankfort (-8.0%), Cincinnati-area Covington (-6.3%), Paducah (-4.9%), Ashland (-1.4%), Radcliff (-1.2%), adjacent to Fort Knox, and Louisville suburb Jeffersontown (-0.1%) - though I'm confused as to how it exists if Louisville and Jefferson County consolidated.

Kentucky's non-Hispanic white population increased by 3.8%.  Its Hispanic population more than doubled (+121.6%), albeit to only 3.1% from a relatively small base.  Kentucky's non-Hispanic Asian population grew by 64.6%.  Its non-Hispanic African-American population grew by 13.4%, increasing from 7.3% to 7.7%.  Over half of the state's African American population lives in two cities: Louisville/Jefferson and Lexington-Fayette.
---------
The remaining states will be released next week: Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia.  We'll also get data for D.C. and Puerto Rico.  Census will beat the April 1 deadline.

[cinyc]

Something quite weird happened with the city of Atlanta - the estimated growth for the decade is so wildly off it makes me wonder: was there a secession to form a new municipality in the last couple of years?

2000 census - 416,474

2001 estimate - 430,684
2002 estimate - 442,538
2003 estimate - 456,919
2004 estimate - 468,725
2005 estimate - 483,108
2006 estimate - 498,496
2007 estimate - 520,368
2008 estimate - 537,958

2010 census - 420,003

I don't think so.  Some previously unincorporated areas in North Fulton County did incorporate, but they weren't within city limits.

It sounds like the same type of problem Census had with Omaha's estimates.  A lot of unincorporated Fulton and DeKalb counties has or had Atlanta zip codes.  I wonder if that's screwing up the estimates.

FWIW, the 2009 ACS estimate pegged Atlanta's population 50% black, 43% white (including Hispanics).  It's actually about 54% black, 38% white.  They got the 5% Hispanic part right.

It's still a growth in the relative white percentage from 2000 - 33% to 38%.  Given that the city was otherwise stagnant, its black population must be falling.

[cinyc]

One other note on the Atlanta area, from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other words, there is white flight from the closer-in suburbs to both Atlanta and the more far-flung counties of the metro.

[cinyc]

Massachusetts, Michigan and New Hampshire shipped to legislators today and will be released to the public around 2PM tomorrow afternoon.

Every state plus Puerto Rico and D.C. will likely be released by 2PM Thursday, when Census is holding a press conference to announce, among other things, who will take over from Edgar Springs, Missouri as the mean population center of the United States.  Edgar Springs' reign is coming to an end - or, more accurately, a spot 2.8 miles east of town's reign is.  Will the next population center be in Laclede, Wright or even Webster or Texas County, Missouri or further afield?   The winner gets a visit from NOAA and a commemorative survey mark.

[cinyc]

Southfield Michigan has could have close to 100,000 people, it had 80,000 in 2000. it was 55% black in 2000, but it's know for where black people move to if they leave the city so it could be a lot more. If 238,000 people left the city they had to move somewhere but of course if they are too spread out it will be harder to make 2 districts. I think they will be able to make 2 districts but they will only be 52-53% black.

The numbers have been released.  I'll work on a full write-up when I have time.  But like most Michigan cities, Southfield lost population in the last decade.  There are just over 590,000 African-Americans in Detroit and 50,000 in Southfield.  The state as a whole lost both non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic African Americans.

[cinyc]

640,000... To keep two black majority districts, you'd need to pull in another 70k blacks from somewhere, and even then you'd need to find a way to split the black population very evenly to get two barely majority black districts. Doesn't really sound doable at all, IMO.  

There are 737,943 blacks in Wayne County and 164,078 in Oakland County (including about 31,000 in Pontiac), plus another almost 58,000 African-Americans in the city of Flint.  If the legislature wants to draw a second black majority district in Southeast Michigan, it probably would be able to - though it would likely have to split Detroit and look very ugly.

The numbers might be a bit lower after taking into account Hispanic status.

[cinyc]

Massachusetts, Michigan and New Hampshire were released today:

Massachusetts
Massachusetts didn't grow much in the past decade (+3.1%), and what little growth there was was somewhat uniform.  More of the rich and the famous called Martha's Vineyard their home, causing the population of Dukes County to increase by 10.3%.   Growing at more than  times the state average sounds impressive until you realize the Vineyard is still small and 10.3% was just over 1,500 residents.  Dukes was the only county which experienced double-digit growth.  It was followed by Nantucket (+6.8%), and Boston exurban/suburban/maybe not Worcester (+6.3%) and Plymouth (+4.7%) counties and Boston's Suffolk County (+4.7%).  Western Massachusetts' Hampshire County (+3.8%), home to the college towns of Amherst and Northampton, and Boston-suburban Norfolk County (+3.2%) also grew slightly faster than the state.  Cape Cod's Barnstable County (-2.9%) and Western Massachusetts' Berkshire (-2.8%) and Franklin (-0.2%) Counties lost population.  North suburban/exurban Boston's Middlesex County (+2.6%) remains the largest in the state with a population just over 1.5 million.

On the municipal level, there wasn't much change, either.  Among the top 20 cities, Plymouth (+9.2%) grew fastest, while Boston (+4.8%) picked up the most new residents, over 28,000.  In the Merrimack Valley near the New Hampshire border, majority-Hispanic Lawrence (+6.0%) and Haverhill (+3.2%) grew faster than Lowell (+1.3%).   Elsewhere in the Boston area, Malden (+5.5%), Quincy (+4.8%) and Harvard's Cambridge (+3.8%) grew faster than the state, while Brookline (+2.8%), Waltham (+2.4%), Framingham (+2.1%), Lynn (+1.4%), Newton (+1.6%) and Medford (+0.7%) did not.  Inner Boston-area Somerville (-2.2%) and south suburban Brockton (-0.5%) lost population.  Outside of the Boston area, the cities of Worcester (+4.9%), New Bedford (+1.4%) and Springfield (+0.6%) grew, while Fall River (-3.4%) lost the most population of any city in the top 20.

Massachusetts' non-Hispanic white population fell by 4.1%.  Its Hispanic population increased by 46.4%.  Massachusetts' non-Hispanic Asian growth was slightly higher (+46.8%) than Hispanic growth and its non-Hispanic Black population growth (+23.0%) about half that.

Michigan
To come in a separate post.

New Hampshire
Growth was a little bit faster in Central New Hampshire than counties on Massachusetts border.  Central Strafford (Rochester/Dover/UNH; +9.7%), Carroll (Lake region; +9.5%), Grafton (Hanover/Lebanon/Dartmouth; +9.0%), Sullivan (Claremont; +8.1%), Merrimack (Concord; +7.5%) and Belknap (Laconia/Lake region; +6.7%) counties all grew faster than the state (+6.5%).  Massachusetts-bordering Rockingham (Portsmouth/Salem; +6.4%), Hillsborough (Manchester/Nashua; +5.2%) and Cheshire (Keene; +4.5%) counties lagged statewide growth, but Hillsborough picked up more residents than any other county, almost 20,000.  Coos County in the north lost 0.2% of its population - 56 people.

On the municipal level, commuter and college towns grew fastest.  Windham, Rockingham County, in the I-93 commuter corridor, grew by 26.9%, fastest among the top 20.  Windham was followed by Manchester-suburban Bedford (+16.0%), the University of New Hampshire's hometown of Durham (+15.6%), Nashua-area Milford (+11.7%) and Portsmouth-area Dover (+11.5%).  The state capital of Concord (+4.9%) grew, its largest city, Manchester (+2.4%) lagged and Nashua (-0.1%) actually lost population.  Portsmouth (-0.0%) was flat.  Other population-losing top 20 municipalities included lake-region Laconia (-2.8%) and, somewhat surprisingly, Derry (-2.7%) in the I-93 commuter corridor

New Hampshire's non-Hispanic white population increased by 3.4%.  It remains over 90% non-Hispanic white, despite its Hispanic population increasing by 79.1%, non-Hispanic Asian population by 78.7% and non-Hispanic African American population increasing by 63.1%.   As in 2000, New Hampshire's blacks remain a very tiny minority - there are more Hispanics and non-Hispanic Asians in the state than non-Hispanic African-Americans.

[cinyc]

from what I'm seeing a lot of cities close to Detroit have big increases in black population

Not surprising. Blacks with the means have been fleeing urban ghettos all over the country.

The difference is that, like whites, blacks are fleeing from the entire state of Michigan, not just the urban ghettos there.  The only groups whose numbers significantly increased were Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asians and those of 2 or more races.   The non-Hispanic American Indian and non-Hispanic Pacific Islander populations also grew, but only very slightly.

[cinyc]

from what I'm seeing a lot of cities close to Detroit have big increases in black population

Not surprising. Blacks with the means have been fleeing urban ghettos all over the country.

The difference is that, like whites, blacks are fleeing from the entire state of Michigan, not just the urban ghettos there.  The only groups whose numbers significantly increased were Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asians and those of 2 or more races.   The non-Hispanic American Indian and non-Hispanic Pacific Islander populations also grew, but only very slightly.

Well, that may be true, but the state black population only appears to have decreased by 1%, so a lot must have simply moved elsewhere within the state, presumably to the suburbs...?

By my math, Detroit lost about 185,000 blacks - almost 24% of the 2000 Detroit African-American population.  Wayne County outside Detroit picked up about 55,000 African-Americans.  Macomb County picked up about 51,000 blacks.  Oakland County picked up about 43,000 blacks.  That leaves about 36,000 Detroit blacks who didn't move to the Detroit-area's big two suburban counties or suburban Wayne. All those areas lost whites.  

Outside of the big 3 counties, you might be able to find a few more Detroit blacks who moved to more far-flung Livingston or Monroe counties, but their combined African-American population is only about 4,000 to begin with.

Note that this is before taking into account Hispanic status.

[cinyc]

Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia shipped to legislators today and are expected to be released at 2PM tomorrow.  Sorry, New York and Maine - you're dead last, on equal footing with D.C. and Puerto Rico.

[cinyc]

Could someone be so kind to put a post in here with links to the individual states (or Cincy's summaries)?

Thanks.

http://2010.census.gov/news/press-kits/redistricting.html

That's is where I get the data.  It has links to all states.  Each state has a short Census writeup and a spreadsheet showing population for the top 20 counties and municipalities and racial data.  You can download the full file from the FTP website.  You'll probably need a database program to open up some of the larger states, though.  California's full file is over 1,000,000 lines long.

I'm downloading some Michigan data now.  Hopefully, I'll have time for a detailed write-up tonight.

I haven't written up every state.  I started doing so about halfway through the process.

[cinyc]

New Hampshire won't even need to change its lines. The districts are only 254 people from the mean:

NH-01    Guinta (R)    657,984    (254)
NH-02    Bass (R)    658,486    254

Quite the bizarre bit of luck.  I suppose New Hampshire could try to move a town or ward or two between the districts to make the population as equal as possible, if they really felt obligated.

[cinyc]

Michigan

Michigan is the only state that lost population over the past decade, shedding 0.6% of its population.  As previously noted, a large part of that population loss was due to the decimation of Detroit (-25.0%) and its county, Wayne (-11.7%).  Even Wayne County outside of Detroit lost population, albeit only 3,000 residents.  And growth in Detroit's main suburban counties was mixed - Oakland County (+0.7%) barely grew.  Macomb County (+6.7%) did better.

But that bleak headline doesn't tell the whole Michigan story.  As the map below shows, believe it or not, there even were some counties that experienced double-digit growth:



The map uses the Atlas Swing colorscale.  Red is positive, blue is negative, gray is about even (0.5% to -0.5%).  The colors deepen in 5% increments.

Clinton County, north-suburban/exurban Lansing, lead the state with 16.4% growth.  Detroit/Ann Arbor exurban Livingston County (+15.3%) was next, followed by Grand Traverse County (+12.0%) in northern Michigan, Isabella County (+11.0%) in the north-central part of the state, which is home to the Isabella Indian Reservation and the city of Mount Pleasant, and Grand Rapids-suburban Ottawa County (+10.7%). 

In Southwest Michigan, Grand Rapids' Kent County (+4.9%) and Kalamazoo County (+4.9%) both grew, while Benton Harbor and St. Joseph's Berrien County (-3.5%) shrunk.   In mid-Michigan, Flint's Gennesse County (-2.4%), Saginaw County (-4.7%) and  Bay City's Bay County (-2.2%) all shrunk, while Midland County (+0.9%) barely grew.   Many of the more rural UP counties shrunk, including Ontonagon County (-13.3%), which shrunk more than any county in Michigan, while a handful of the larger UP counties slightly grew.

But the statewide percentage change map only tells part of the story.  Michigan is one of the few states that lost both non-Hispanic whites (-3.0%) and non-Hispanic blacks (-1.3%) over the past decade.  As the map of percentage change in the county non-Hispanic white population below shows, non-Hispanic whites fled most counties, including the main Detroit suburban counties and Grand Rapids' Kent:


On the other hand, the non-Hispanic black population increased in most counties except, most notably, in Detroit's Wayne County, Flint's Genessee County, Saginaw County and three counties on the Southwest corner of the state.



This map uses a slightly different colorscale.  The colors deepen in 10-point increments, and you can see some orange where the black population more than doubled and green where it more than tripled.  As you can see, the non-Hispanic black population of Detroit-suburban Macomb County and northern Grand Traverse County, among others, exploded.  Of course, explosion is relative - some counties, especially outside of Michigan's metropolitan areas, had few blacks to begin with.  The next map shows the relative shift in the county's non-Hispanic black percentage from 2000 to 2010 - i.e. 2010 non-Hispanic black percentage minus 2000 non-Hispanic black percentage:



This uses the Atlas swing coloring.  Most counties are gray for a less than 0.5% change.  Detroit-suburban Macomb had the biggest increase in black percentage, almost 6%.  Its black population grew from just 2.7% of the county in 2000 to 8.6% in 2010.  Other counties saw smaller shifts.

Statewide, the Hispanic (+34.7) and non-Hispanic Asian (+34.9%) populations grew, but not at the impressive rate seen in elsewhere - which might explain why there aren't more counties showing relative losses.

In general, on the municipal level, 15 of the state's top 20 cities lost population over the last decade, none more than Detroit (-25.0%), Flint (-18.0%) and Pontiac (-10.3%).  Only Detroit-suburban Sterling Heights (+4.2%), Rochester Hills (+3.2%), Dearborn (+0.4%) and Troy (+0.0%) and Grand Rapids-suburban Wyoming (+4.0%) gained population.  Detroit-suburban Southfield (-8.4%) and St. Clair Shores (-5.4%) and Taylor (-4.2%) were big losers.  In the rest of the state, Ann Arbor was relatively flat (-0.1%), while Grand Rapids (-4.9%), Lansing (-4.1%) and Kalamazoo (-3.7%) lost population.

In particular, here's a map showing population losses by municipality in Southeast Michigan:



Gains were generally outside of the I-275/I-696 loop.  Yet even those areas lost whites:


While even some areas inside the loop gained black residents:

(Note that this uses the second colorscale.  The black population in silver-shaded municipalities more than quadrupled.  Gold-shaded municipalities had no black residents in 2000 - though they're mainly in other parts of the state.)

And, as a result, the black percentage increased, especially in Detroit's inner suburbs:

(Atlas Swing color scale; silver is near-zero change)

I can make other Michigan town maps upon request.

[cinyc]

Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia have been released:

Rhode Island
The results are pretty boring.   The state barely grew (+0.4%).  Its counties barely grew (none grew or lost more than 5,100 residents or 3%).   And its top 20 towns barely grew.

Rhode Island only has 5 counties.  Providence County, in the state's northern third, remains the state's largest, growing by 0.8% and picking up the most new residents - just over 5,000.  The county is home to the state capital of Providence and Pawtucket.  Washington County, in the state's southern third, grew fastest at 2.8%.  Mid-state Kent County (Warwick; -0.6%), ocean-faring Newport County (-3.0%) and the part of Massachusetts handed over to Rhode Island after a long dispute, Bristol County, Rhode Island (-1.5%) lost population.  Bristol is one of the few counties whose top ethnicity is Portuguese.

On the municipal level, Providence remains the largest city in the state, growing by 2.5% and picking up more residents than any other town.  Washington County's South Kingston (+9.7%) grew fastest - it's good to live by the shore, I guess.  Cumberland (+5.2%), on the Massachusetts border, Kent County's Coventry (+4.0%) and suburban Smithfield (+4.0%) also gained more than 3%.  The more urban towns of Newport (-6.8%), Woonsocket (-4.7%), Warwick (-3.7%) and East Providence (-3.4%) lost more than 3%.  The city of Central Falls (+2.4%)  is majority Hispanic.

Rhode Island's non-Hispanic White population dropped by 6.4%.  Its Hispanic population grew by 43.9%, growing from 8.7% to 12.4% of the population.  Rhode Island's non-Hispanic black population (+23.0%) and non-Hispanic Asian population (+28.1%) also grew - but non-Hispanic blacks still make up under 5% of the state's population.


South Carolina
To come in a separate post.

West Virginia
Even though West Virginia grew by 2.5%, most of its counties lost population.  Among the top 20, Kanawaha, home of the state capital, Charleston, lost 3.5% of its population and the most residents.  Marshall (Moundsville; -6.8%), Ohio (Wheeling; -6.3%) and Hancock (Weirton; -6.1%) in West Virginia's northern panhandle lost a greater percentage of their residents than Kanawha.  Beckley's Fayette County (-3.2%) lost about as much as Kanawha, while Parkersburg's Wood County (-1.2%), Princeton's Mercer County (-1.1%) and Huntington's Cabell County (-0.5%) were slightly down.

Other counties gained population.  The biggest gainers were generally in the state's eastern panhandle, which includes some counties in Washington, D.C.'s exurbs and counties including college towns.  The biggest winner was Berkeley County (Martinsburg; +37.2%), which leaped up 4 spots to become the second-largest county in the state.  It picked up over 28,000 new residents and now has a population over 100,000.   Its eastern panhandle neighbor, Jefferson County (+26.8%) was next, followed in the top 20 counties by Morgantown's Monongalia County (+17.5%), home to the University of West Virginia, and neighboring Preston County (+14.3%).   Other growing counties included Putnam County (+7.6%), along I-64 between Charleston and Huntington, Elkins' Randolph County (+4.0%), home to Davis & Elkins College, and Greenbrier County (+3.0%), a resorty area on the Virginia border in the southern part of the state.

On the municipal level, the top three cities - Charleston (-3.8%), Huntington (-4.5%) and Parkersburg (-4.9%) all lost population, as did three of the next four - Wheeling (-9.3%), Weirton (-3.3%) and Fairmont (-2.1%), in between Charleston and Morgantown.  Martinsburg (+15.1%) in the state's eastern panhandle grew fastest among the top 20, followed by Bridgeport (+11.5%), near Clarksburg (-1.0%) and the college town of Morgantown (+10.6%).  In the southern part of teh state, Bluefield lost 8.8% of its residents while Beckley (+2.1%) and Oak Hill (+1.9%), closer to the state's white water rafting mecca, showed slight growth.  Charleston-suburban Nitro (+5.2%) showed a pulse, but didn't exactly explode.

West Virginia's non-Hispanic white population grew by 1.0%.  Its Hispanic population (+81.4%) nearly doubled - but Hispanics still make up only 1.2% of the state's population.  The state's non-Hispanic Asian (+31.3%) and non-Hispanic black (+9.3%) population also grew.  At 3.4% of the population, non-Hispanic blacks are the state's largest minority group - but that's not saying much.  West Virginia is still over 93% non-Hispanic white.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know when NY's data is to be released?

2PM tomorrow, with Maine, Puerto Rico and Washington D.C.  They were shipped today.  As such, Census has shipped out every state redistricting dataset. 

There's a press conference at 2PM tomorrow to announce the new mean population center of the US, error rates and assorted other stuff.

[cinyc]

I'm a little surprised that Charleston lost population. I would think if anywhere in the state (outside of the exurbanizing eastern panhandle) would be able to avoid bleeding people, it would be the state capital.

What's up with Gilmer's growth?

As am I.  But it's not the only state capital that lost population.  Off the top of my head, Frankfort, Kentucky, Lansing, Michigan and Pierre, South Dakota did, too.  At least their counties grew, though.

There's a state college and federal penitentiary in Gilmer County.  My guess it is Gilmer's growth something to do with one or both of those institutions.

[cinyc]

South Carolina
Unlike the other slow- or no-growth states released this week, South Carolina grew at a brisk 15.3% pace.  Every one of the top 20 counties grew.  The fastest-growing counties were largely suburban or coastal.  Charleston-suburban Dorchester County (Summerville; +41.6%) lead the growth parade, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina-suburban York County (Rock Hill;+ 37.3%), Myrtle Beach's Horry County (+37.0%) and coastal Beaufort County (+34.1%), home of ritzy Hilton Head Island and Beaufort's U.S. Marine bases, including Parris Island.  Horry County picked up the most new residents - over 72,000, about 1,000 more residents than the largest county in the state, Greenville (+18.9%), in upstate South Carolina.    Other major counties that grew faster than the state include Charlotte-exurban Lancaster (+24.9%), Charleston-suburban Berkeley (+24.7%), Columbia-suburban Lexington (+21.5%) and Columbia's county, Richland (+19.9%).   Charleston County grew by 13.0%.  In upstate, Anderson County (+12.9%) and Spartanburg County (+12.0%) slightly lagged the state.    Some I-95 counties containing smaller towns barely grew, among them Orangeburg County (+1.0%), Sumter County (+2.7%) and Darlington County (+1.9%), near Florence.  And 12 more rural counties lost population.

On the municipal level, the state capital of Columbia (+11.2%) held off Charleston (+24.2%) to remain the state's largest city.  Charleston picked up the most new residents of any city in the state, over 23,000, bringing its population above 100,000.  It is now within 9,200 residents of becoming South Carolina's largest city.  And Charleston's suburbs were among the state's fastest growing major municipalities, including Summerville (+56.4%), Mount Pleasant (+42.5%), Goose Creek (+23.0%) and North Charleston (+22.4%).  Upstate suburbs were also well-represented, with Greer (+51.5%), near the Greenville-Spartanburg Airport, and Mauldin (+50.3%) posting impressive growth rates.  Charlotte-area Rock Hill (+32.9%),  the city of Florence (+22.5%), Myrtle Beach (+19.1%) and Augusta, Georgia-area Aiken (+16.5%) also grew faster than the state.   Upstate Spartanburg (-6.7%) was the only population loser among South Carolina's top 20 municipalities.  Its upstate neighbor, Greenville, only grew by 4.3%.

South Carolina's non-Hispanic white population grew at a respectable 11.7%, three points faster than its non-Hispanic black population (+8.6%).  As a result, South Carolina's non-Hispanic African-American population decreased from 29.4% to 27.7% of the state's population.  But because South Carolina's Hispanic population (+147.9%) more than doubled and non-Hispanic Asian population (+63.9%) rapidly grew, South Carolina's non-Hispanic white percentage also dropped 2 points from 66.1% to 64.1% of the population.  Hispanics make up 5.1% and non-Hispanic Asians 1.3% of South Carolina's residents.

[cinyc]

South Carolina
Every one of the top 20 counties grew.

Make that every one of the current top 20 counties.  The #17 county for 2000, Laurens County, lost population, which is precisely why it no longer is in the top 20 at all.

True.  As always, I write these things based on the Census' 2010 top 20 lists unless I see something else on the maps or take the time to download additional data.

Along those lines, McDowell County West Virginia lost 19.1% of its population, the most in that state.  It's the southernmost county in the state.  Outside of the Greenbrier/White Sulfur Springs resorty area, southern West Virginia didn't fare so well.

I wonder if this means that a 2nd Black-majority district isn't required.  It was hard enough trying to draw two beforehand.

FWIW - Non-Hispanic black VAP is even lower - 26.3%.

[cinyc]

Greenville was South Carolina's 4th largest city in 2000.  It was passed by Mount Pleasant and Rock Hill over the past decade, and is now 6th largest.  Spartanburg fell from 7th largest to 11th.

[cinyc]

The Boston Globe has some nice Massachusetts maps, for those who want to delve deeper into that state's data:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/graphics/03_22_11_2010_census_town_population/

[cinyc]

NYC: 8,175,133 (+2.1%)

DC lost 11.5% of its non-Hispanic black population and is now just barely majority non-Hispanic black - 50.03%.  DC's non-Hispanic white population grew by 31.6% - faster than its Hispanic population (21.8%).

[cinyc]

The mean population center of the US is in the northwest corner of Texas County, Missouri, probably somewhere near Roby, Missouri.  The 2000-2010 shift was the most southerly shift ever (compass wise).  It didn't move as far westward as the past few decades.