gordon smith vs. barack obama.

[Iosif]

I see.

I think I'll be having a word with Dave.

[Keystone Phil]

I see.

I think I'll be having a word with Dave.

Awww, what's wrong? Can't take a dose of your own medicine? I love it when people get on my case for being a "crybaby" and then they go run to Dave after they get attacked. I've never complain about Dave to you but I have plenty to report if you want to play that game.

Or we can be mature, stop the constant attacks/harassment and debate things here like adults. The ball's in your court, pal. You let me know.

[Iosif]

There's no e in complain.

[Keystone Phil]

There's no e in complain.

Oh, now we're picking on typos? Ouch. You're getting weaker...

Any typos there?

[Iosif]

The last part of your signature should be in two sentences. A comma doesn't work there.

[NOVA Green]

Obama overperformed Merkley....

True, but notice that most of the key swings towards Smith were concentrated in the Portland suburbs but it was still not enough.

Note that my study of precinct returns shows that Smith won key suburban communities in Clackamas and Washington counties, including  blue-collar Oregon City, as well as the affluent city of Lake Oswego and won by 14 points in the non-Metro 1/3 rd of the county. Smith narrowly lost key Washington County as part of the heavily Democratic swing in this area.

Despite handily beating Merkley downstate, Smith still lost the Senate race because he was not able to replicate the winning Republican formula in Oregon which I have previously described.

I'll give a more detailed breakdown if requested.

[memphis]

Here's an example of a wrong prediction I made regarding Dole's senate seat:

Her race to lose. She probably won't, though.

Here's the kind of prediction you post:

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

In the end, Texas was about a point more GOP than PA was Dem. Anyhow, you invite people to make fun of your predictions when you're all uppity about them in the first place.

So....you give one example of your prediction and one example of mine. I'm sure you've never been cocky about a prediction especially when talking to a hack troll. For whatever reason, Iosif has been on my case since he got here. You're not even as bad as he has been.

At the same time that I make those cocky predictions, I'm one of the first people to admit when I'm wrong and send my best to the winners. I'm not looking to be showered with praise for that; I would simply like people to remember that before they go batshit on me.

Show me an example of me being "cocky" on a political prediction. It's really not my style.  Admitting your wrong does not exempt you from being made fun of. If you act all haughty and then get proven wrong, people are going to make fun of you. That's just how the world is. Try some humility for a change.

[Keystone Phil]

Show me an example of me being "cocky" on a political prediction. It's really not my style.  Admitting your wrong does not exempt you from being made fun of. If you act all haughty and then get proven wrong, people are going to make fun of you. That's just how the world is. Try some humility for a change.

Try some humility? Dude, you need to get over yourself. You have a serious problem with me and decided to get nasty with me in the "Opinion of Phil" thread. It's clear that you have a bias.

To think that I've been cocky about all of my predictions is assinine and many would have agreed with my PA/TX rating that you cited. I wasn't cocky about saying Santorum would win. But you have some good excuse for getting on my case for that, right? "It was so stupid that we have to make fun of you!" It all goes back to your problems with and your desire to get every bit of satisfaction out of a win. Winning isn't enough. You need to rub it in the losing side's face. Of course admitting when I'm wrong isn't enough. Then you wouldn't have anything to complain about. Now we have Iosif (someone that everyone can admit just loves obsessesing over me in particular) getting on my case for grammar and spelling. Give me a break, guys.

[memphis]

The only reason I said anything in the opinion of Keystone Phil thread is all the taunting and accusation of cowardice from the FF side. I would have much rather not said anything at all. Although I don't like the word "stupid," predicting a Santorum win was pretty out there given the polling. Ditto for claiming PA would be remotely competitive in the recent presidential election. The only reason McCain made much a big push there late in the game was that PA is a large state that doesn't have early voting. He had to hope for an outright miracle in the one state where his goose wasn't already cooked. I suspect I would have caught a lot of flack if I had made a big fuss about the Dems were going to pick up Hagel's seat and had a chance at Texas in the presidential race. The margins are simiar to Santorum/Obama in PA.  It's not so much the predictions (outrageous as they are) as the pompous attitude that accompanies them.

[Keystone Phil]

Ditto for claiming PA would be remotely competitive in the recent presidential election.

Right but you didn't go after anyone else that said the polling was off and that it would be much closer. 

 

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And, again, you ignore the truth. I wasn't pompous about my Santorum prediction and many others laughed off the idea of TX being closer than PA this year. It's people like yourself that continue to act pompous, citing my "horrible record" at predictions when, in reality, that's the worst myth on the forum. I've only ever had two really bad predictions but the people that personally dislike me love to harp on them.

The only reason I said anything in the opinion of Keystone Phil thread is all the taunting and accusation of cowardice from the FF side. I would have much rather not said anything at all.

That's too rich. You would have loved to keep your mouth shut but you were forced to personally attack me. I feel your pain, my friend. I hope you got over that hurtful experience.

You've got something lodged way too far up your ass when it comes to your feelings about me and I'd rather you either a) keep it to yourself or b) talk to me personally about it. I'm tired of getting this lecture about me just wanting to play the victim when I actually want to civilly converse about the race and whatever other topics. I'm tired of this "Gotcha!" nonsense. I'm tired of the bumping of the old threads and attacking people personally. There are quite a few bad predictions from the other side that are just as infamous as mine. I went at it with a few people and they were wrong about some other races. I let it go though. All I ask is that you do the same.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You were beyond pompous on the McCain winning PA/Obama underperforming in Philly thing. This comes to mind:

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

Kerry's margin of victory.

McCain is going to cut into that margin elsewhere, my friend.

The whole "my friend" thing itself is rather pompous as is the bold post since that's basically what happened (and note the date too considering Phil always says he switched to predicting an Obama victory in the last month or so.)

Not as pompous as J. J. though I'll grant you, but who is?

[Keystone Phil]

You were beyond pompous on the McCain winning PA/Obama underperforming in Philly thing. This comes to mind:

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

Kerry's margin of victory.

McCain is going to cut into that margin elsewhere, my friend.

The whole "my friend" thing itself is rather pompous as is the bold post since that's basically what happened (and note the date too considering Phil always says he switched to predicting an Obama victory in the last month or so.)

Not as pompous as J. J. though I'll grant you, but who is?

LOL

That's what was pompous? Dude, give me a break. Ask anyone that knows me here. I have seriously started using the whole "my friend" thing and I mean it in the kindest way possible. Sorry that I don't debate on your level, BRTD. I don't understand what was so pompous about that prediction. I said something and it didn't happen.

This is going to be a never ending game of "I was right and Phil was wrong." I love how the pompous attitude of the winning side is never a problem even though you got yourself the damn victory. The excuse for your side being pompous will be the childish, "Well, we won so we have a right to be arrogant." That's a game that I can't win. Oh well. I don't even know why I'm arguing with the most arrogant poster here (BRTD), an all out troll (Iosif...and no one really disputes that either) and someone like memphis who just has a personal issue with me.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the date is more worthy of note.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the date is more worthy of note.

I don't even remember claiming that I had Obama winning PA a month out. Maybe it was three weeks. Or two weeks. Hey, maybe it was a week out. Who cares?

You won. Some of us were wrong. Get. Over. It. If you are that desperate to have your ego stroked, you need to find a more entertaining social life as soon as possible.

[Smash255]

Phil,  to go back to an argument you and I have had regarding your state.  Do you still think a conservative Republican in the mold of Toomey or Santorum can still win the state?  Or have you finally realized that a conservative in that mold would get demolished in suburban Philly, and you can't win statewide getting slammed in the Philly suburbs?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,  to go back to an argument you and I have had regarding your state.  Do you still think a conservative Republican in the mold of Toomey or Santorum can still win the state?  Or have you finally realized that a conservative in that mold would get demolished in suburban Philly, and you can't win statewide getting slammed in the Philly suburbs?

This is exactly the bullshit I'm talking about. How am I supposed to have a normal conversation with someone when they phrase their point like you did, Smash? Once I give the answer you don't like (which you are obviously expecting), you'll simply repeat (probably about six times in one post) your usual talking points and we'll have a circular argument for a good day or two. Please prove me wrong though. Please finally be the one to say "We'll agree to disagree" instead of battling it out and getting absolutely no where.

Yes, someone in that mold can still win. If anything, Obama is just as liberal as Santorum and Toomey are conservative. Don't try to feed me any nonsense about Obama being a centrist or center-left. Yes, I know you disagree but we've done this countless times so just do me a favor and give it a rest.

[Smash255]

Phil,  to go back to an argument you and I have had regarding your state.  Do you still think a conservative Republican in the mold of Toomey or Santorum can still win the state?  Or have you finally realized that a conservative in that mold would get demolished in suburban Philly, and you can't win statewide getting slammed in the Philly suburbs?

This is exactly the bullshit I'm talking about. How am I supposed to have a normal conversation with someone when they phrase their point like you did, Smash? Once I give the answer you don't like (which you are obviously expecting), you'll simply repeat (probably about six times in one post) your usual talking points and we'll have a circular argument for a good day or two. Please prove me wrong though. Please finally be the one to say "We'll agree to disagree" instead of battling it out and getting absolutely no where.

Yes, someone in that mold can still win. If anything, Obama is just as liberal as Santorum and Toomey are conservative. Don't try to feed me any nonsense about Obama being a centrist or center-left. Yes, I know you disagree but we've done this countless times so just do me a favor and give it a rest.

After being wrong several times on your state I wanted to see if that changed your mind on how you viewed your state, especially with what has gone on in suburban Philly the last few years.  Perhaps I came off a little sarcastic, but that wasn't exactly my intent. 

[Lunar]

[Keystone Phil]

After being wrong several times on your state I wanted to see if that changed your mind on how you viewed your state, especially with what has gone on in suburban Philly the last few years.  Perhaps I came off a little sarcastic, but that wasn't exactly my intent. 

If we want to get technical, Smash, I don't know how I was really wrong about my state several times. I predicted one statewide race wrong. I had Santorum winning in 2006 but also had Rendell winning and had Obama winning in 2008. When it came down to the actual predictions, I have one statewide race wrong. One. But you'll continue to be just as disingenous as everyone else and feed into the myth that I've been wrong about PA "several times."

[Smash255]

After being wrong several times on your state I wanted to see if that changed your mind on how you viewed your state, especially with what has gone on in suburban Philly the last few years.  Perhaps I came off a little sarcastic, but that wasn't exactly my intent. 

If we want to get technical, Smash, I don't know how I was really wrong about my state several times. I predicted one statewide race wrong. I had Santorum winning in 2006 but also had Rendell winning and had Obama winning in 2008. When it came down to the actual predictions, I have one statewide race wrong. One. But you'll continue to be just as disingenous as everyone else and feed into the myth that I've been wrong about PA "several times."

Well you were WAYY off in 06 with Santorum, and in 08 you had McCain up most of the way (without a shred of evidence to support it) and even when you did decide to believe Obama was going to win you thought it was going to be quite a bit closer than it was.  Your predictions of what was going to happen with the margins in SEPA has been very poor.

[Keystone Phil]

Well you were WAYY off in 06 with Santorum, and in 08 you had McCain up most of the way (without a shred of evidence to support it) and even when you did decide to believe Obama was going to win you thought it was going to be quite a bit closer than it was.  Your predictions of what was going to happen with the margins in SEPA has been very poor.

Without a shred of evidence? Haha, ok. Dude, this is pointless. Yeah, I did think PA would be closer than a ten point margin. So did most people.

You have one wrong statewide prediction, Smash. One. Let's be a big boy and admit that my record isn't as bad as you and almost everyone else makes it out to be. So let's stop saying how I've been wrong "several times" about my state.

[Smash255]

Well you were WAYY off in 06 with Santorum, and in 08 you had McCain up most of the way (without a shred of evidence to support it) and even when you did decide to believe Obama was going to win you thought it was going to be quite a bit closer than it was.  Your predictions of what was going to happen with the margins in SEPA has been very poor.

Without a shred of evidence? Haha, ok. Dude, this is pointless. Yeah, I did think PA would be closer than a ten point margin. So did most people.

You have one wrong statewide prediction, Smash. One. Let's be a big boy and admit that my record isn't as bad as you and almost everyone else makes it out to be. So let's stop saying how I've been wrong "several times" about my state.

Thats like Zogby saying he didn't get something wrong because he picked the winner correctly when he said the margin would be 2 and it was 10.  Did other people think it would be closer?  Yes, did most of those having McCain winning most of the way through and then when suggest Obama would win think it would be really close?  No, and JJ doesn't count.   Fact of the matter is, its more than just the predictions as a whole, but the overall analysis of those predictions which have been really poor, this is especially true in your own region of the state (SEPA)

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, did most of those having McCain winning most of the way through and then when suggest Obama would win think it would be really close?  No, and JJ doesn't count.

It really wasn't assinine to have McCain winning the state up until the economic crisis but whatever. You're such a hard head that I won't even bother.

   

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Oh, right, right, right. Not the predictions as a whole...because I called you out on exagerrating my prediction record.

And no, I haven't had a really poor record with my own region of the state. I guess my record is "really poor" because I don't subscribe to your nonsense that a Republican must win the SE to win statewide.

[Smash255]

Yes, did most of those having McCain winning most of the way through and then when suggest Obama would win think it would be really close?  No, and JJ doesn't count.

It really wasn't assinine to have McCain winning the state up until the economic crisis but whatever. You're such a hard head that I won't even bother.

   

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Oh, right, right, right. Not the predictions as a whole...because I called you out on exagerrating my prediction record.

And no, I haven't had a really poor record with my own region of the state. I guess my record is "really poor" because I don't subscribe to your nonsense that a Republican must win the SE to win statewide.

As far as before the economic crisis you made that prediction when not even a shred of evidence pointed toward it.  As far as the general prediction saying something is going to be close and it winds up being double digits, is not an accurate or correct prediction.  Just because Zogby might try to make it so doesn't.

As far as the SE argument goes, the math just isn't there for a Republican to lose by a decent amount in suburban Philly and win statewide.  The math just isn't there to support that argument.  And fact of the matter is the voters in suburban Philly simply aren't going to support a Toomey or Santorum type of Republican anymore.  They may have in the past, but those days are over, and the GOP just can't make up the votes in the rest of the state in order to overcome the drubbing they would get in the SE from such a candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

As far as before the economic crisis you made that prediction when not even a shred of evidence pointed toward it.  As far as the general prediction saying something is going to be close and it winds up being double digits, is not an accurate or correct prediction.  Just because Zogby might try to make it so doesn't.

Why do you keep blatantly lying? Without a "shred of evidence?" Really?

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Hey, Smash, like I said about six times already, I've heard you make this argument enough times. I know you like to make the same points over and over and over and over and over and over again but it's getting annoying. We got the point. Stop bringing it up. You know I'm going to disagree and that you will say the same talking points so why even bother?