Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Schwartz has finally got her first ad out, talking about her role in creating CHIP while serving in the State Senate


McCord also has a new ad out, citing his bona-fides when it comes to taking on Corbett

Just saw Schwartz in the Phila market.

[J. J.]

The underlying issue is still well in the news as well:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/pa_lawmakers_call_for_fuller_d.html#incart_m-rpt-1

The very Democratic leaning State College Centre Daily Times, which endorsed her, and didn't cover the story for two weeks (at least on-line) came out with a blistering editorial on that and the "investigation of the investigation." 

According to Wikipedia, the major good government group, "The Committee of Seventy," has called for a special prosecutor to investigate Kane.

[J. J.]

Corbett trails Generic D by 22 points

Similar to the 19 he trailed Wolf by in the most recent Quinnipiac poll.

I'm a bit suspicious of a poll where the results show that 100% plan to vote. 

[J. J.]

Wolf is outspending everyone:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_outspends_all_rivals_toge.html#incart_m-rpt-1

What I found interesting is that McCord raised less money than Wolf, even less than McGinty.  Wolf is largely self funded and isn't focusing on fund raising. 

I think it might come down to Wolf and Schwartz.

[J. J.]

Now it is the Washington Post talking about Kane:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/09/read-in-wednesday-april-9-2014-secret-service-supervisor-demoted-hope-for-ui-in-the-house-mcallister-will-seek-fbi-probe/

Kane took what could have been a 2-3 day story, and transformed it into a major scandal.

[J. J.]

Now it is the Washington Post talking about Kane:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/09/read-in-wednesday-april-9-2014-secret-service-supervisor-demoted-hope-for-ui-in-the-house-mcallister-will-seek-fbi-probe/

Kane took what could have been a 2-3 day story, and transformed it into a major scandal.

One paragraph on an online blog post in the WaPo does not a major scandal make. This whole thing still feels like it's something only hacks care about.

It does when they are talking about it three weeks later.

[J. J.]

Williams just said he'd take the case, but he wants everything.

A possible conflict of interest has cropped up, with a Kane staffer (prior to becoming a staffer) being one of those people who took money.

Re-election is not an issue for Kane; continued survival as AG is. 

[J. J.]

In the Governor's race, Schwartz came out swinging against Wolf in a debate, accusing him of buying the nomination.  McCord's stepbrother accused him of dissing his stepfather.   

[J. J.]

If all Schwartz has to hit Wolf with is the loan then he has this thing sewn up it's just not a thing that's going to get voters to abandon him. And Schwartz's first campaign ad on CHIP seemed weak and ineffective it's just not something people care about.

Wolf's commercials are better, but Schwartz's commercials are good.

Schwartz is in a position where she has a reasonable amount of money and is raising it much better than the largely self funded Wolf.

[J. J.]

I'm not sure, but I think some of the polling last year did list her as ahead.

[J. J.]

Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.

Is the PAGOP really that terrified of a some guy being on the primary ballot? How sad.

They remember Peg Luksic. 

[J. J.]

It just got a little worse for Kane.  The sting targeted 50 people, 25 black, 23 white, and 3 Hispanic.  8 were Republican.

[J. J.]

Meh, we have Sestak.

I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.

[J. J.]

<Raises hand>

For Kane herself, big deal. A possible chance to recover and stay in office in two years IF it doesn't get much worse or prolonged, but at very least in regards her running against Toomey--baring some independent investigation broadly, unconditionally, and LOUDLY exonerating her--she's already been "Christieized".

For the governor's race, however--meh. Even moreso if "outsider" Wolf is the nominee as expected, but not much worse even if it's Schwartz or McCord.

I'll say it again: At present it seems this realistically won't change more than about a thousand votes statewide come November. In trying to tar Wolf and other Democrats with Kane's woes, Corbett backers are grasping at straws here because---well, what else have they got? This is VERY much a Kathleen Kane problem, not a Democrat problem. And the type of Republican "rallied" enough by Kane's scandal to turn out and vote for Corbett because "CORRUPT DEMOCRATS!!" was 99% likely to vote anyway.

But don't stop believing, JJ.

Wolf already distance himself from her, so he would be the least damaged.

Schwartz, however, is seen as a liberal woman, just like Kane.  She did not distance herself.

Even for Wolf (and I may be voting for him), it creates doubt with Republicans in the general conduct of Democrats.

[J. J.]

Kanegate takes another turn:  http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/20140424_Kane_not_turning_over_sting_files_to_Williams.html

She is being compared to Emily Latella. 

It is almost as if Kane is deliberately trying to destroy herself.

[J. J.]

What the heck is she doing.

Screwing up royally.

Some of her PR people have quit; Kane has gone through three press secretaries in less than two years. 

As I said about another local candidate recently, this would be the situation where, if I was working for the person, I would walk up them, grab them by the lapels, and say, "What the f[Inks] are you thinking?"

[J. J.]

Minor attack, but is the start of sniping by Schwartz on Wolf.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/accused_of_plagiarism_wolf_edi.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Your concern trolling is admirable.

I, for one, welcome Tom Wolf's ascent.

I actually like Wolf and prefer to see him challenge Corbett in the fall.

I would definitely vote for Corbett over Schwartz and am leaning to voting Wolf over Corbett.

We could see a bruising primary.

[J. J.]

It means Corbett is coming baaack from the political dead.

Ya the Penn State scandal/coverup , massive education cuts, numerous gaffes "Just close your eyes"  are all just going away

The Penn State Scandal has exploded with Kane.  What has come out has supported what he has said.

Corbett has done exceptionally little, but it seems like everyone else is screwing up worse. 

[J. J.]

Title: "Kane's Korruption Keep-Away."



This is a Democratic newspaper, the Harrisburg Patriot News. 

How Democratic?  They panned the Gettysburg Address. 

[J. J.]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

[J. J.]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

[J. J.]

I think we're at the point in PA where voters are willing to overlook the flaws of Corbett's opponent in order to throw him out. He's deeply disliked and very unpopular and the voters are ready to get rid of him unless one of the Dem nominees has a criminal background or something I'm not seeing how one of them could allow for Corbett to be re-elected.

I spent most of the 2010 cycle calling him "Tom Corbett, Space Cadet," so I am not exactly a fan. 

One of the great problems is Kane.  We elected her, in spite of her flaws, and we have Kanegate.  People just have to look at her and ask, do we want to do that again?  It is more prevalent with Schwartz, as both are flaming liberal women, but it is still there with the other candidates.

(And Kane is suppose to be investigating the Sandusky investigation, but it has taken her half as long, so far, as the AG's investigation.)

I easily would have voted for Wagner over Corbett in 2010, but not a more liberal Onorato.

[J. J.]

Kanegate still moving on:  http://www.phillymag.com/news/2014/04/28/abandoned-sting-case-kathleen-kane-frank-fina-grudge-match/

[J. J.]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

"Kathleen Kane" =/= "others".

About the only thing this has proven JJ, is that Corbett might be able to make a political comeback in 2016 by running against Kane (assuming he could get the GOP nom).

Kane basically won the AG's race by running against Corbett in 2012, even though Corbett was Governor at the time. 

The problem is, for Schwartz at least, is that:

1.  She is another liberal Democratic woman.

2.  Her themes, the old boy network, were Kane's themes.

Wolf does not have quite the same problem, though it still creates a problem.

In other news, Corbett is making heavy TV buys.  Fairly positive (and lacking details), and he does look grandfatherly.