Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett will kick off his re-election campaign next week.

I think this needs to be reported about three more times in this thread for people to get the point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Corbett will kick off his re-election campaign next week.

I think this needs to be reported about three more times in this thread for people to get the point.

I think it's just the fact that Democrats love to hear it.

[Zioneer]

Corbett will tell the experts and pollsters to SHOVE IT: I'm seeking reelection and going to win.

Do NOT count out Corbett.

Wait, are you supporting Corbett?

[RedSLC]

Corbett will tell the experts and pollsters to SHOVE IT: I'm seeking reelection and going to win.

Do NOT count out Corbett.

Wait, are you supporting Corbett?

I put this poster on my ignore list today.

[Morning in Atlas]

Well, I got back a few hours ago from Mayor Gray's reelection party. The countdown to take down Corbett starts now.

[Keystone Phil]

Wagner will decide by December whether he will run for Governor again - http://www.politicspa.com/wagner-to-decide-on-guv-bid-by-december/52825/

The former two term Auditor General ran in 2010 and ran for Lt. Governor in 2002 (as Casey's unofficial running mate) so he is no stranger to statewide contests. Wagner's entrance would be huge not only because of his deep connections and experience with the establishment but also because he will be the only candidate from the west.

[Keystone Phil]

Harper Polling is out with some interesting findings. In the Dem primary, Schwartz leads the pack with 22%. Former DEP Secretary Katie McGinty is in second with 15%. McCord takes 12%, Hanger is at 7%, Pawlowski has 6% and Wolf is in last with 5%. 34% are undecided.

44% say they would prefer a "moderate, more electable Dem" while 38% want a "liberal Democrat who champions progressive issues."

Interesting numbers on abortion: only 52% say it should be legal in most cases with 43% saying it should be illegal in most cases. That part isn't surprising (to me at least). What is: men took a more liberal stance on the issue than women. Younger people continue the recent trend of supporting more restrictions.

http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-pa-dems-split-on-abortion-more/52946/

[J. J.]

I think you are aware that I am not a fan of Corbett.  Consider that when I post.

1.  Corbett just had a fairly major victory on transportation funding, including an increase in the speed limit to 70 MPH on some Interstates.  That tends to be popular outside SEPA.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/70_mph_speed_limits_coming_to.html  PA conservatives like fast driving and cheap liquor.     If the State Stores were sold, he'd win in a landslide.

There could be some legislative victories that strengthen him.

2.  The "Kane investigation" on Sandusky will go no place.  Corbett was accused of dragging his feet.  His "alibi" is that they didn't know about the other victims until October 2010.  It came from a tipster to the Centre County DA, Parks Miller.   Parks Miller is a fairly liberal Democrat, female, and a Kane supporter.  She first ran in 2009, and Corbett supported her opponent.  She has zero reasons to cover up for Corbett.  I think they can show that he didn't know about the second and subsequent victims until late 2010.  Some of the Sandusky investigation/PSU complaints will collapse.

Also, the trials should be over; I expect convictions, though Spanier could escape. 

Sandusky will have a lesser impact than it does now.

3.  Fracking is receding as an issue.  Schwartz wants to tax it, not ban it.  http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/09/05/top-corbett-challenger-puts-cards-table-tax-fracking/  Corbett can be seen as being on the right side of history on this issue.  Even more than Sandusky, this could have damaged him.

Fracking is a moderate plus for Corbett.

4.  Corbett does slightly better in the African American community that the average Republican.  He has been known to fire senior staffers for even minor comments.  It more than just having a black grandson.

There will be slight erosion of the Democratic base.

I wouldn't proclaim him the winner in 2014 just yet, but I think he will be strengthening going into the election.

[Brittain33]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

[J. J.]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

[Brittain33]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

[Keystone Phil]

Basically, Republicans outside of the SE hate it (not to say that there aren't Republicans here that don't like it).

[J. J.]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

[Brittain33]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

Are you sticking to the idea that the transportation bill is a positive for Corbett's reelection?

[Keystone Phil]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

Are you sticking to the idea that the transportation bill is a positive for Corbett's reelection?

I know I'm not being asked but I'll answer anyway: overall, yes. It will help his standing in the SE. He's getting a lot of praise from Dem leaders down here that were very worried about it not passing. Yeah, he's hitting a few bumps with the GOP but he's used to that now and, quite frankly, I think a large part of his strategy will be charging up the GOP against Schwartz.

[windjammer]

Pennsylvania will be a toss up, not lean dem.

[Brittain33]

I know I'm not being asked but I'll answer anyway: overall, yes. It will help his standing in the SE. He's getting a lot of praise from Dem leaders down here that were very worried about it not passing. Yeah, he's hitting a few bumps with the GOP but he's used to that now and, quite frankly, I think a large part of his strategy will be charging up the GOP against Schwartz.

That's interesting and a good point. As a Democrat, I think it's good policy (without examining the details) and applaud his getting it passed. I would never vote for him but I'm sure there are moderate Republicans in the SE who appreciate this accomplishment. Since I only look at PA federally I forget that they can vote very differently on a state level.

[Miles]

Ouch.

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[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, that's almost literally unbelievable.

[Flake]

Ouch.

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How do you mess up that badly? Is he that awful??

[IceSpear]

Ouch.

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Wow...so his overall approval will be in the 20s? Not that Corbett being toxic is news or anything, but I never expected him to drop THAT low.

[Keystone Phil]

24% approve, 65% disapprove. Dem primary is wide open with yet announced Wagner just four points behind Schwartz. 42% of Republicans want Corbett as the nominee while 47% want someone else. Several Dems already at 50% against Corbett.

http://t.co/4BFXEu9Okm

[windjammer]

Why is he so unpopular?

[pbrower2a]

Ouch.

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How do you mess up that badly? Is he that awful??

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/corbetts-numbers-just-keep-getting-worse.html#more

24% disapproval. He has gone below Rick Scott at his worst points.

At those low levels of support he could end up with mass demonstrations against him this summer.

Incompetent? Corrupt? Extreme?

Think of what happened in the Senatorial races in Indiana and Missouri: the Republican nominees for the US Senate trivialized rape as an abstraction with "legitimate rape" and similar formulations, and lost decisively in states that Barack Obama lost decisively. The Penn State scandal involved rape, and not as an abstraction -- boys getting raped by some assistant coach who betrayed a basic trust. Being involved in any attempted coverup after the fact is hard to recover from.   

[IceSpear]

Only down 15-20 points? Looks like a toss up to me because PA is a "swing state".

Said every news outlet ever.