Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[Why]

Mark it down, Cruz will win North Carolina by 2-3 points.

Not a chance. Look where the vote is out as compared to where it is in. Wake County - in. Charlotte - out. Trump extends this to the 8-10 point range before all is said and done -- in line with PPP.

Assuming the result in Charlotte stays the same as it is you are right. Not sure how much of what is in is early voting which favoured Trump largely and how much is from the 4 of 195 precincts that have reported so far.

[Why]

Trumps lead in Mecklenburg/Charlotte is falling slightly with new results but it probably is not going to be enough for Cruz

[Why]

Trumps lead in Mecklenburg/Charlotte is falling slightly with new results but it probably is not going to be enough for Cruz

Kasich is doing real well in Mecklenburg with voters who voted today.

This does look to be very significant.

[Why]

Trump now looking safe in NC. Not sure about MO.

Kasich might end up beating Cruz in Mecklenburg/Charlotte NC. He has polled very well there at the expense of Cruz.

[Why]

Calling NC is dumb, the top four counties with the highest population are still out.

I think it's a little early myself, but I guess they're either living dangerously or know more than we do.

Trump is holding his lead in Mecklenburg over Cruz, Kasich is gaining but that does not matter, so it is over.

[Why]

NC - ALL OF Cruz's counties there are over 90% reported already.

He might win Guilford, he has been gaining there a little but it is not going to be nearly enough.

[Why]

Cruz has mounted a fabulous comeback in Madison County, NC to win the county.

[Why]

Practically does Trump even have to get 1237 to win on the first ballot. There will be a number of unpledged delegates from various places going to the convention. I don't know how many but if he is over 1150 could they be enough to give him a win anyway?

[Why]

There is still St Louis County and City to come, they might help Trump to a close win. Jackson could still end up as a Trump win as well, only 2 votes in it.

[Why]

Is Cruz going to be able to gain enough votes elsewhere if he even just narrowly loses St Louis City and County?
I know there are some counties left in the SW but are they really going to be enough along with the rest of Boone?

Or does he need to win in at least one of St Louis City or County? If so I don't like his chances.

[Why]

So Cruz won Polk and lost Tarney in the SW, is that really good news for him or should he be winning Tarney as well?

[Why]

Looks like a very narrow Trump win to me

[Why]

Trump wins Stone in the SW as well.
It might blow out for a couple of percentage win for Trump.

[Why]

Cape G... for Cruz by over 1000, he really needed that.

[Why]

What are Cruz's chances like in the 4 completely outstanding counties, Phelps, Perry, Osage, New Madrid.

[Why]

Unless CNN has results for all of St. Louis then it cannot be 99%

[Why]

Cruz back slightly ahead in Jackson, he needs to extend that lead and hope the rest of Boone is very good for him to have any chance.

[Why]

It is so obvious that 90% of the people in this thread are trollish trump fans.

I am not.

[Why]

I just cannot see how Cruz is going to win this. Trump should gain votes in the remaining parts of St Louis and I do not see how Cruz can get them back anywhere else.

[Why]

For what little it might be worth Cruz has taken the lead in Guilford County, NC and looks likely to win it.

[Why]

In IL Kasich still leads for 7 delegates and Cruz for 9 delegates, that leaves 53 for Trump.

Is that good or bad for trump?

Moderately good.

[Why]

What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

State wide delegates are winner takes all.

[Why]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

[Why]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

77% of Jackson County is in and Trump is keeping it narrow.  He's only behind Cruz by 900-something odd votes.

Hard to see the rest going 4000 votes in favour of Cruz which is what is needed.

[Why]

I don't think trump fans realize how god damn lucky they are that rubio was still in the race tonight.

Gave trump missouri and NC.

Kasich did well in both Charlotte and St Louis which also helped Trump.