Illinois and Kansas swinging to Clinton vs. Obama 2012 just feels so wrong.

[Nyvin]

As to Illinois.  I'm not sure what the OP is referring to.  Both Obama and Hillary Clinton won by about 17% and Obama received around 2% more of the share of the vote than Hillary Clinton did.  I suppose in the 2 candidate preferred, Hillary Clinton won by more than Barack Obama in Illinois.

Both Clinton and Trump went down by 2 points compared to Obama/Romney,  there was a larger share of the vote going to third party candidates this year.   Clinton won by 16.96%, Obama by 16.84%.   The difference is Obama won nationally by 3.9% and Clinton only by ~2.1%.    So when compared to the national popular vote, Illinois trended Democratic.

[136or142]

As to Illinois.  I'm not sure what the OP is referring to.  Both Obama and Hillary Clinton won by about 17% and Obama received around 2% more of the share of the vote than Hillary Clinton did.  I suppose in the 2 candidate preferred, Hillary Clinton won by more than Barack Obama in Illinois.

Both Clinton and Trump went down by 2 points compared to Obama/Romney,  there was a larger share of the vote going to third party candidates this year.   Clinton won by 16.96%, Obama by 16.84%.   The difference is Obama won nationally by 3.9% and Clinton only by ~2.1%.    So when compared to the national popular vote, Illinois trended Democratic.

Oh, I see. Thanks for the explanation.

I don't think that's any more than elasticity.

[Torie]

Perhaps Kansas trended Dem, because its rural areas were already overwhelming Pub, and thus there was not much more juice to get there, to offset the educated white Pub erosion in Johnson County. In other words, unlike in the rust belt, and white working class was already in the Pub camp in Kansas.

Putting that aside, I do notice a swing to Trump in white working class Wyandotte (the one white working class Dem bastion in Kansas), and a swing to Clinton in the SW corner of the state. Is that latter swing to Clinton due to an influx of Hispanics there or something?

[JGibson]

Perhaps Kansas trended Dem, because its rural areas were already overwhelming Pub, and thus there was not much more juice to get there, to offset the educated white Pub erosion in Johnson County. In other words, unlike in the rust belt, and white working class was already in the Pub camp in Kansas.

Putting that aside, I do notice a swing to Trump in white working class Wyandotte (the one white working class Dem bastion in Kansas), and a swing to Clinton in the SW corner of the state. Is that latter swing to Clinton due to an influx of Hispanics there or something?

In SW Kansas, I believe it's mostly due to the influx of Hispanics there. The area is still Super Safe R territory, and could become just Likely or Safe R land down the line.