MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[_]

I think Lean R is still a fair rating.

[RogueBeaver]

Hawley will announce his decision around Labor Day.

[MT Treasurer]

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

I think most other Democrats would have a much better shot at holding this seat (though I guess it would still be Lean R, maybe closer to Tilt or Tossup if 2018 turns out to be an absolute disaster for Republicans), but we cannot simply choose to ignore these factors. I'd rate it Likely R right now (not Safe R because both Trump and the Missouri GOP are a joke), and I honestly don't believe this race will be particularly close in the end either. I'll be eating crow if I'm wrong.

Also, this and IN are the only states where I believe Republicans are favored by quite a bit, but it doesn't really mean much because Democrats could cancel it out by picking up NV (likely) and AZ (not sure). Republicans need to do more than just win one or two states, given how favorable the map is for them in 2018 and how many vulnerable seats they have to defend in 2020.

[Rjjr77]

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right? And yes, McCaskill is he kind of person to do that. I think I would know

"But Trump" isn't really a good strategy to win Senate races in states like MO and ND, but that's just my opinion. I mean, McCaskill is known for being opposed to like... 90% of Trump's agenda, so if he is so unpopular in MO, why isn't she doing well so far? (Yes, polling isn't reliable in general, but it's pretty obvious that she's in big trouble). I also believe that Gallup poll is understating his support, in all honesty. I'm not saying that he isn't terribly unpopular right now, but I really doubt he's going to be such a drag on the GOP in Missouri of all places like you seem to believe.

We'll see, but I really doubt she's going to retire. It will be interesting to see how the various red state Democrats fare in 2018, though. McCaskill and Tester have been much more vocal about their opposition to Trump (and Gorsuch) than Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, so I'm skeptical that they will get much crossover support in the general election (and Hawley and Rosendale/some of the other MT Republicans are fairly good candidates). The latter group can at least tout their bipartisan credentials even if Trump is popular in their states (which he almost certainly will be, at least in ND and WV) and it'll be much more difficult to attack them for being obstructionists (though they still will be, of course).

The point I'm trying to make is that if Trump is -25 or so nationwide like the polls all ondicate, then he's probably underwater in Missouri by around 5 points or so. Not enough for McCaskill IMO (but crazier things have happened), but probably enough for Kander in an open seat who has a lot of goodwill still around him. And frankly I don't think Trump will somehow improve those numbers. Anyone thinking otherwise apparently hasn't seen his presidency over the past 6 months.

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-averaged-higher-job-approval-states.aspx

looks like thats not the case in Missouri. +3.

[Rjjr77]

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right? And yes, McCaskill is he kind of person to do that. I think I would know

"But Trump" isn't really a good strategy to win Senate races in states like MO and ND, but that's just my opinion. I mean, McCaskill is known for being opposed to like... 90% of Trump's agenda, so if he is so unpopular in MO, why isn't she doing well so far? (Yes, polling isn't reliable in general, but it's pretty obvious that she's in big trouble). I also believe that Gallup poll is understating his support, in all honesty. I'm not saying that he isn't terribly unpopular right now, but I really doubt he's going to be such a drag on the GOP in Missouri of all places like you seem to believe.

We'll see, but I really doubt she's going to retire. It will be interesting to see how the various red state Democrats fare in 2018, though. McCaskill and Tester have been much more vocal about their opposition to Trump (and Gorsuch) than Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, so I'm skeptical that they will get much crossover support in the general election (and Hawley and Rosendale/some of the other MT Republicans are fairly good candidates). The latter group can at least tout their bipartisan credentials even if Trump is popular in their states (which he almost certainly will be, at least in ND and WV) and it'll be much more difficult to attack them for being obstructionists (though they still will be, of course).

The point I'm trying to make is that if Trump is -25 or so nationwide like the polls all ondicate, then he's probably underwater in Missouri by around 5 points or so. Not enough for McCaskill IMO (but crazier things have happened), but probably enough for Kander in an open seat who has a lot of goodwill still around him. And frankly I don't think Trump will somehow improve those numbers. Anyone thinking otherwise apparently hasn't seen his presidency over the past 6 months.

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-averaged-higher-job-approval-states.aspx

looks like thats not the case in Missouri. +3.

Maybe you should read the thread again and my responses to them. This was when Trump was -14 nationwide. He's over -20 now.

i'd roll my eyes but its not enough. There is too much assumption going on when it comes to Trump's approval ratings. Are these likely midterm voters? most likely not. How many republicans disapprove of Trump but will still vote for them? etc. etc. etc. I'd bet that trump is performing far better in approval polls in quite a few states when only likely voters are polled (heck many approval polls dont even poll registered voters, just all 18+ adults). when he was -14 in approval rating (all 18+ people) he was +3 with all 18+ people, I bet that number is a lot higher with registered and even higher with likely.

National approval polls should just not be utilized anymore, we should throw them out, just like nationwide horse race polls, look at the states individually. No more assumptions on where trump is in a poll in a state based on your "feelings"

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I would say Tilt R, but it could easily become Lean R or Tossup depending on Trump's changing approval ratings and/or more early polling.

[Gone to Carolina]

If I had to guess I'd wager this race is probably Lean R atm, and McCaskill is probably the most likely to lose out of any of the Democratic incumbents come election day.

[Canis]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

[TheSaint250]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

[Canis]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

[TheSaint250]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

His massive disadvantage is hardly any name recognition. I would that we get polls with him soon for the primary

[Rjjr77]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

There is not and will never be another Donald Trump in any election. There just aren't many people with 30+ years of name ID with popular TV shows.

[Heisenberg]

Petersen bought http://www.joshhawley2018.com/
and is using it to attack hawley like trump did last year to jeb!

He's really going all in to win this.

True I think a lot of people are underestimating him I think Petersen has potential to be the Donald Trump of this election

There is not and will never be another Donald Trump in any election. There just aren't many people with 30+ years of name ID with popular TV shows.

What he means I guess is pulling away from a large crowded primary and winning in an upset? Anyway, while I won't underestimate anyone, Petersen probably won't win it, and if he does, I think he'll struggle in the general. He's too culturally liberal and fiscally libertarian to do well in the swingy areas, and McCaskill actually isn't that bad a fit for them. Once they look into things like Petersen's atheism, avowed "cultural liberalism," his open borders views, flat tax, gutting SS and Medicare, etc. that'll turn many of them off. I just don't see him winning, say, Ste. Genevieve County, or Clay County.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

[Pandaguineapig]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

[BuckeyeNut]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

Well now.

[GlobeSoc]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

just like how george wallace had a large following in the civil rights movement

[Skunk]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

just like how george wallace had a large following in the civil rights movement

Pretty sure he meant social media.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

Only people who are familiar with the libertarian party have a good idea of who he is.

[jamestroll]

I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/

So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

[Kingpoleon]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

Aren't you the one who constantly talked about how transgender people "may be" mentally ill?

Yea, Hartzler has always seemed to be a massive HP and an awful politician. If she runs/win the nomination, I'll be backing McCaskill or a third party like I did in 2012 against Akin.

It is unacceptable for the MO GOP to continuously allow jokes like Todd Akin and Vicky Hartzler damage the party brand and wreak havoc politically.

Would you back a hawk/neocon like Petersen?

[Mike Thick]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

Aren't you the one who constantly talked about how transgender people "may be" mentally ill?

Yea, Hartzler has always seemed to be a massive HP and an awful politician. If she runs/win the nomination, I'll be backing McCaskill or a third party like I did in 2012 against Akin.

It is unacceptable for the MO GOP to continuously allow jokes like Todd Akin and Vicky Hartzler damage the party brand and wreak havoc politically.

Would you back a hawk/neocon like Petersen?

In what world is Petersen a neocon? He ran for the Libertarian Presidential nomination last year.

[Ye We Can]

I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/


So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

...What

[_]

I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/


So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

...What

He's making a political prediction not based off the dynamics of the race, but on astrology.

[Ye We Can]

I have the race at no longer toss up but as Lean R because I looked at Claire McCaskill's astrological transits on November 6th 2018 and it appears she will have a narrow loss. I should analyze Josh Hawley's birth chart also.

But the huge caveat is I do not have birth times. Birth times are important in astrology.  Which can be explained here: http://myastrologylife.com/why-accurate-birthtime-is-important-to-your-astrology/


So I am hoping with birth times McCaskill has some REALLY good aspects..

but saturn transiting squaring her progressed sun is quite alarming to have on election night! So she will probably lose

...What

He's making a political prediction not based off the dynamics of the race, but on astrology.

I realize it's astrology, I was just amazed that it ever be used for a Missouri Senate race on atlas.