How likely is a complete GOP shutout?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By that mean the GOP doesn't pick up a single seat in Congress or governorship. Nothing.

It actually looks pretty likely at this point. If you look at the polls maps, there currently isn't a single seat that the GOP is projected to pick up in the Senate. And they probably don't have a chance at any one anymore except New Jersey. The same is true for governorships, and the only chances they have are Michigan, Iowa and Maine.

As for the House, there's only 4 Democratic-held seats listed as vulnerable, and in all the Dems appear to be favored.

I'd put the odds at 50/50. That'd be quite amazing. Even the Dems did make a few gains in 1994.

[WalterMitty]

pretty low.  we are going to make one gain in mn, for example.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

pretty low.  we are going to make one gain in mn, for example.

When do you expect Kennedy to lead in the first poll in the entire election?

Oh yeah, odds are 10:1 on Kennedy on TradeSports. You should go bid now, you'd make a fortune.

[WalterMitty]

pretty low.  we are going to make one gain in mn, for example.

When do you expect Kennedy to lead in the first poll in the entire election?

Oh yeah, odds are 10:1 on Kennedy on TradeSports. You should go bid now, you'd make a fortune.

i have better things to do with my money than bet on political candidates.

our odds are decent in mn.  i think kean will win in nj.

as for governors, iowa looks likely to flip.  michigan is probably.  maybe in maine.  and im not completely writing wisconsin off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Point is, if you are so confident of a Kennedy victory, you should bid. You'd make a fortune.

Kennedy is running a rather weak campaign, he's down by 8-10, and he has no real advantages at this point. I've yet to hear a good argument of why he is likely to win at this point.

The Republican hasn't led in a single poll in Iowa. It's close enough for him to have a chance still, but he's certainly not favored.

[WalterMitty]

brtd, the senate race in mn wouldnt even be competitive for the gop if the democrats had a qualified candidate.

ive often wondered, how come mn cant get qualified dems to run?  walter fing mondale in 02?  amy klobacher in 06?

roger moe for governor?

republicans havent carried the state in a presidential race since 1972, but the best you all can get to run for the senate is some kind of divorce attorney.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That type of thinking may make sense, except the polls aren't reflecting it.

Obviously people care more about the fact that Kennedy is a 100% Bush rubber stamp than Klobuchar's position. I wouldn't even call the race competitive now.

Klobuchar is in an elected position though, and Arlen Specter was only a district attorney (Klobuchar is county attorney, a higher position) before he was elected to Senate, so it's hardly unprecendented either.

[WalterMitty]

That type of thinking may make sense, except the polls aren't reflecting it.

Obviously people care more about the fact that Kennedy is a 100% Bush rubber stamp than Klobuchar's position. I wouldn't even call the race competitive now.

Klobuchar is in an elected position though, and Arlen Specter was only a district attorney (Klobuchar is county attorney, a higher position) before he was elected to Senate, so it's hardly unprecendented either.

the da of philadelphia county is a pretty important office.

and specter lost two races before making it to the senate...mayor of philly and governor.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That type of thinking may make sense, except the polls aren't reflecting it.

Obviously people care more about the fact that Kennedy is a 100% Bush rubber stamp than Klobuchar's position. I wouldn't even call the race competitive now.

Klobuchar is in an elected position though, and Arlen Specter was only a district attorney (Klobuchar is county attorney, a higher position) before he was elected to Senate, so it's hardly unprecendented either.

the da of philadelphia county is a pretty important office.

So is the County Attorney of Hennepin County.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I say little chance and here's my top oppurtunites and I'm almost certain Kean Jr. will win

1. Tom Kean Jr.
2. Dick DeVos
3. Jim Nussle
4. Michael Steele
5. Chandler Woodcock
6. David McSweeney
7. Ron Saxton
8. Mark Kennedy
9. Mike Bouchard
10. A number of people, leave it open

I also a strange feeling that Martha Rainville will win VT-AL

Steele jumps to No. 2 behind Kean if Mfume wins the primary, down below McSweeney if Cardin.  I don't see a shutout, Kean will at least win.

[Jake]

It's looking likely that Melissa Bean will be defeated in IL-8, plus Kean, DeVos, Woodcock, and Nussle have solid chances to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Woodcock is trailing by 11 points in the last poll.  DeVos maybe, he has a better chance than Woodcock.

[Jake]

Woodcock is trailing by 11 points in the last poll.  DeVos maybe, he has a better chance than Woodcock.

D-38, R-27, U-35 is a horrible poll, plus I doubt the track record of a newspaper poll.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think its possible but unlikely.  The GOP's best chances are obviously either in the House or Gubernatorial races.  Their chances in New Jersey are remote, and Minnesota has more or less moved into the Lean D column. 

I don't see it myself but there seems to be a consensus on the forum that Melissa Bean will be defeated in IL-8.  There are other Democrats who may have less smoother rides but I think she is the current standout choice.

Gubernatorial races are often not symptomatic of national trends, but in this case I think they will be.  Iowa remains the GOP's best chance, but their candidate is currently trailing and has never led.  While there are several lacklustre Democratic Governors in Illinois, Maine and Wisconsin all of them seem to be leading and there is no reason to assume they will not prevail given the current political climate. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You are wrong there are 20% undecided, but Woodcock hasn't lead in a single poll.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You are wrong there are 20% undecided, but Woodcock hasn't lead in a single poll.

He leads according to SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen has a 1 point race.  The others are unreliable polls.

[Alcon]

Right now, I'd put the chances around 25%.

[Eraserhead]

I'd say about 35%.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Better get to work. Looks like he peeked early.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

[Smash255]

40%

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

[© tweed]

<15%

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.