How likely is a complete GOP shutout?

[Eraserhead]

I'd say about 35%.

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Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Better get to work. Looks like he peeked early.

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

[Eraserhead]

That said the worst case for Dems in the Senate would be about 2-3. Maybe 1-3 if they really blow it....and of course all bets are off it there is a sudden terrorist attack or bin Laden puts out another tape to help the Republicans right before the election.

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

I put Kean beating Menendez at 60%, and Steele beating Mfume at 60%, the chance that they both lose is about 10%

That makes no freakin' sense.

[Eraserhead]

DownwiththeLeft do you actually Kean only has a 10% chance of losing the NJ Senate race or did you just type something inncorrectly?