Trump's floor if there's a credible #NeverTrump third partier

[Mike Thick]

What do you think?

[The Other Castro]

If the candidate got 5-10%, maybe something like this:

[Ronnie]

Castro, I think the third party conservative would have a shot at winning Utah, particularly if that candidate is Mitt Romney.  Also, I think Hillary could flip NE-01 and AR.  Otherwise, that map looks solid.

[The Other Castro]

Castro, I think the third party conservative would have a shot at winning Utah, particularly if that candidate is Mitt Romney.  Also, I think Hillary could flip NE-01 and AR.  Otherwise, that map looks solid.

Red can act as simply Not Trump in the map, and I was on the fence about NE-01 so it could be either way. I don't think AR can flip though.

[SteveRogers]

Can you define "credible?"

[Ronnie]

Can you define "credible?"

I'm guessing it's code for "Mitt Romney".  Maybe Ben Sasse as well?

[Mike Thick]

Can you define "credible?"

I'm guessing it's code for "Mitt Romney".  Maybe Ben Sasse as well?

Sure. Just not a "some guy" like a random pundit.

[Broken System]

I think a third party victory in Utah is not too far-fetched.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think a third party victory in Utah is not too far-fetched.

Agreed. If you look back at past statewide elections, the Constitution Party candidates often receive a good chunk of the vote. A "nice" Jesussy candidate could very well do better than Trump or Hillary there in Mormonland.

[Mister Mets]

With a credible third party candidate, the floor is really low. It might be unlikely that the floor is reached, but there is some precedent.

In the 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election, the Republican candidate got 11 percent because a former Republican got 36.4 percent. The Democrat ended up getting 51 percent, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With a credible third party candidate, the floor is really low. It might be unlikely that the floor is reached, but there is some precedent.

In the 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election, the Republican candidate got 11 percent because a former Republican got 36.4 percent. The Democrat ended up getting 51 percent, though.

Yeah, well this isn't going to be like that or the 2006 Connecticut Senate election.