New poll hype thread (user search)
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Author Topic: New poll hype thread  (Read 92626 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« on: August 30, 2016, 08:31:08 AM »
« edited: August 30, 2016, 08:34:37 AM by heatcharger »
I'd be surprised if her lead was any lower than 7 points. Also, McGinty should be leading, but we'll see.

When are Marist, SurveyUSA, and Fox gonna release new numbers? Monmouth has been picking up the slack while all other pollsters have been MIA these past few weeks.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2016, 10:56:11 AM »
PPP is running a poll of what state to poll this weekend:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/770651067436662790

I voted Minnesota because we don't have a clue what's happening there.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2016, 08:31:57 AM »
Looks like we're getting an ABC/WaPo poll today or tomorrow. They just released new favorable/unfavorable numbers: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050

Although Clinton's favorables look bad, I still think she'll be leading by 6-7 points in this poll.


Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 30, 2016, 03:07:05 PM
Marquette Law School will release a new Wisconsin poll at 12:15 pm CDT tomorrow, August 31.  http://law.marquette.edu/current-students/marquette-law-school-august-poll

I'm gonna guess Clinton +10 ish and Feingold +8.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2016, 08:47:35 AM »
Quote from: F_S_USATN on August 31, 2016, 08:46:22 AM
MonmouthPoll ‏@MonmouthPoll  1m1 minute ago
This afternoon's poll will be ...

On Wisconsin

We really don't need two Wisconsin polls in one day... also how large is Monmouth's polling budget???
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 02:01:35 PM »
Quote from: Castro on August 31, 2016, 01:39:41 PM
New FOX poll tonight, probably National.

Hmm, I'm not sure. In this tweet it says polls. Hopefully they are state polls, because all these national polls do is lead to guessing about trends.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 02:09:45 PM »
Quote from: Castro on August 31, 2016, 02:04:40 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on August 31, 2016, 02:01:35 PM
Quote from: Castro on August 31, 2016, 01:39:41 PM
New FOX poll tonight, probably National.

Hmm, I'm not sure. In this tweet it says polls. Hopefully they are state polls, because all these national polls do is lead to guessing about trends.

Hmm good point, though I think they've mentioned specific states in their previews in the past. I hope you're right, since state polls would be more interesting.

Yeah now I'm pretty positive this will be a national poll. If so, I think it'll be about Clinton +5, with Trump still failing to crack 40% in the 4-way.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2016, 08:24:41 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 03, 2016, 08:21:56 AM
PA and NC.

Plus results of an overall 11-swing state sample.

Those multiple state samples are so useless I don't know why they do them.

Anyways I expect Clinton +7 in PA, Clinton +2 in NC, McGinty +4, and Burr +2ish.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 02:42:16 PM »
Marist better have a lot of polls up its sleeve because they haven't released anything in almost a month.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 12:03:44 PM »
Just got polled. Pretty safe to assume it was PPP from all the silly questions.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2016, 01:04:55 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 11, 2016, 12:40:09 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on September 11, 2016, 12:03:44 PM
Just got polled. Pretty safe to assume it was PPP from all the silly questions.

Any particularly interesting ones?

Hmm, well there were some potential 2017 questions that involved Barbara Comstock and Don Beyer to name a few. There was also questions about Putin and Aleppo lol.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 03:40:34 PM »
Quote from: Castro on September 12, 2016, 03:39:03 PM
PPP's VA poll is coming out tomorrow, and is a 7-8 on the Dem happiness scale.

Ooh, sounds like Clinton +7-8 lead. I'm interested to see the 2017 numbers.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2016, 07:23:41 PM »
WBUR is releasing a Massachusetts poll tomorrow.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2016, 07:52:40 PM »
PPP is polling North Carolina, and you can suggest questions here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/north-carolina-question-suggestions.html
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2016, 06:56:58 AM »

I'll say Hillary rebounds as this poll will be taken this weekend. Maybe Clinton +5 and Feingold +7.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2016, 07:03:42 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 07:09:25 PM by heatcharger »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 18, 2016, 06:03:24 PM
Quote from: Classic Conservative on September 18, 2016, 04:36:02 PM
It's a voter file poll too. So it's different than media polls.

Yeah, I'm interested to see how the results of this looks. This might be the right way to do it in the future. Also, there is a Spanish speaking option in case anyone is curious.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you look at other pollsters, like say PPP, only 11% of their responders were 18-29. The FL voter file shows that actually 17% of the electorate is 18-29. Sure, PPP will use weights, but that's making guesses about how the other 6% will vote.

The top line numbers for this poll will be important, but I'm far more interested in the crosstabs.

Also, I wonder what this means for the future of CBS/NYT polls.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2016, 10:02:53 AM »
New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 03:20:04 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 04:31:25 PM by heatcharger »
PPP has had a strange Trump house effect in certain states, including NC. I'll say Trump +2 there.

For Monmouth, I'll say Clinton +2 in Nevada and Trump +2 in Iowa.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 12:31:14 PM »
New Q-pac polls from CO, GA, IA, and VA coming today.

I'll say C+7, T+3, T+2, C+7 respectively.

I don't expect any surprises in the senate numbers.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2016, 07:54:47 AM »
Hopefully Kander is leading.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2016, 06:13:56 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 06:16:43 PM by heatcharger »
Rachel Maddow just said on Twitter she's unveiling a new poll tonight -- presumably from PPP.

If that's the case, I'll guess Clinton +5.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2016, 06:17:31 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 06:25:25 PM by heatcharger »
PPP also just said they are releasing 5 new state polls tomorrow!

The polls were conducted in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

I'll guess:

CO: Clinton +6
FL: Clinton +2
NC: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +8

For the Senate:

CO: Bennet +11
FL: Rubio +3
NC: Ross +1
PA: McGinty +4
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2016, 03:02:41 PM »
Quote from: Likely Voter on September 30, 2016, 02:59:43 PM
Fox B host tweet about Fox national poll coming tonight...

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sounds like a Clinton lead to me. I'll guess Clinton +4.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2016, 11:35:48 AM »
Quote from: Arch on October 01, 2016, 11:33:45 AM
Weren't polls supposed to be popping up this weekend?

I suspect there will be some tomorrow for the Sunday talk shows, presumably from from the other four CPD polls.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2016, 04:55:23 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on October 01, 2016, 04:48:04 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on October 01, 2016, 11:35:48 AM
Quote from: Arch on October 01, 2016, 11:33:45 AM
Weren't polls supposed to be popping up this weekend?

I suspect there will be some tomorrow for the Sunday talk shows, presumably from the other four CPD polls.

What are the other four CPD polls?

Assuming you mean Committee on Presidential Debates and statewide polls?

If so, what state are coming up, and if not what is the polling outfit?

I meant the polls that are included in the average that decides who will be invited to the debate, and those are FOX, CBS/NYT, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, and CNN/ORC. FOX released a poll yesterday, and the other four networks have Sunday morning shows where they often release polls that they discuss. Also, CBS/YouGov frequently debuts new state polls on Face The Nation, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some from them.

I would be very shocked if we didn't see a plethora of post-debate polls tomorrow.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2016, 08:47:37 PM »

Sounds like a midnight release to me. I'll guess Clinton +5.
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