Canadian federal election - 2015

[DL]

Mulcair's more likely insofar as he's more likely to have a "star" challenger making claims to Outremont's "Liberal history" (would Cauchon try here, or elsewhere?)

Keep in mind that under redistribution Outremont loses anglo and allophone areas in the west that are where the Liberals do best in that riding - and gains areas of the Plateau that are heavily francophone Quebec Solidaire territory that would likely go 80% Mulcair against a Liberal.

[MaxQue]

Mulcair's more likely insofar as he's more likely to have a "star" challenger making claims to Outremont's "Liberal history" (would Cauchon try here, or elsewhere?)

Keep in mind that under redistribution Outremont loses anglo and allophone areas in the west that are where the Liberals do best in that riding - and gains areas of the Plateau that are heavily francophone Quebec Solidaire territory that would likely go 80% Mulcair against a Liberal.

It also loses the swing areas around McGill University. I think than Mulcaur could lose the Côte-des-Neiges and Outremont areas but still win thanks to the Plateau (since he will win huge there, I even think than NDP won the Plateau parts of Outremont in 2006!).

[batmacumba]

Well, if anyone is interested in observing the parties' dance, this is what happened in the last year.



So, we're, as everybody noticed, in Justin Bieb.. Trudeaumentum mode.
Any guesses on how much time will it be maintained? Can he stand Harper and Mulcair in a debate?

[RogueBeaver]

Over the summer, once the new session starts this fall the jury's out. Remember that even Iggy had a 6-month honeymoon before "Mr. Harper, your time is up" in September '09. As for a debate, depends on strategy. He certainly wouldn't come off well in a head-to-head policy confrontation with Harper and/or Mulcair at this stage, but if the strategy is to plead with voters rather than engage his opponents- like Harper usually does- then who knows.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Is there a swingometer somewhere to guess how many seats the parties would get with these numbers?

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals on the minority/majority threshold, Tory opposition, NDP in third.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a swingometer somewhere to guess how many seats the parties would get with these numbers?

Canada is kind of hard to predict because it has so many parties and huge regional differences.

[Qavvavak]

Liberals on the minority/majority threshold, Tory opposition, NDP in third.

Nah, NDP on the minority/majority, Liberal opposition and Tory in third.

[Space7]

I find it interesting that the Bloc isn't rising at all, if anything, it's subsiding.

This is strange because before the 2011 election, from the start of 2009, the Bloc remained remarkably steady at about 40% in Quebec, regardless of how much the Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives fluctuated beneath them. That is, until just before the election, when they were crushed by the orange wave.

Common sense would dictate that all the Bloc voters switched to the NDP.

But now that the orange wave has subsided a bit it looks like the Bloc isn't recovering at all.

Before the election, Liberal strength or weakness didn't seem to have much effect on the Bloc voters, but now, it seems all those Bloc voters have given up on the Bloc and the NDP, and are now going Liberal.

Those Quebec votes are an absolute necessity if either Mulcair or Trudeau want to have a shot at winning 2015.

[MaxQue]

Bloc has been crushed too much to come back. They only have 5 MPs, their leader is outside of the Commons, they totally fell off the radar.

[Space7]

Bloc has been crushed too much to come back. They only have 5 MPs, their leader is outside of the Commons, they totally fell off the radar.

Hopefully you're right.

It would be bad news for the Conservatives.

Good news for the opposition.

However, I don't think support for sovereignty in Quebec is completely dead yet, the Bloc voters might be just hiding behind the Liberals and the NDP in the opinion polls hoping for the Bloc to gain momentum so they can switch back. Hopefully they don't resurface, that would be very, very bad news for the center-left.

I'd imagine this is why Trudeau is throwing his support behind Quebec right now, if the news is any indication. He doesn't want the Bloc to rise up again, and so he's trying to present the Liberals as a viable alternative.

[MaxQue]

However, I don't think support for sovereignty in Quebec is completely dead yet, the Bloc voters might be just hiding behind the Liberals and the NDP in the opinion polls hoping for the Bloc to gain momentum so they can switch back. Hopefully they don't resurface, that would be very, very bad news for the center-left.

My parents are hardcore soveignists, but they vote NDP.
They are saying than independance will be done at Quebec City, not Ottawa. Independance lived before the Bloc and will live after the Bloc.

They are saying than, if we are stuck in Canada, as well try to improve it instead of propping an party which can't win, which only helps the Conservatives.

[DL]

My parents are hardcore soveignists, but they vote NDP.
They are saying than independance will be done at Quebec City, not Ottawa. Independance lived before the Bloc and will live after the Bloc.

They are saying than, if we are stuck in Canada, as well try to improve it instead of propping an party which can't win, which only helps the Conservatives.

I think you're parents are very smart. People often forget that from the foundation of the PQ in 1968 right up to the creation of the BQ in the wake of the collapse of the Meech lake accord in 1990 - there was no sovereignist vehicle at the federal level and no one thought it necessary. In the early 70s Levesque suggested that his people abstain from voting in federal elections at all, then the PQ began to quietly back whichever federal party was seen as having the best chance of weakening the Trudeau Liberals who were the PQ's arch-enemy. In 1979 that meant giving some quiet backing to the Creditistes and PCs in some places. Ditto in 1980. In 1984 the PQ machine essentially went 100% behind Mulroney's PCs, then in the mid-80s when the NDP under Broadbent started to show signs of life in Quebec, the PQ started hedging its bets and being sympathetic to the rise of the NDP, then in 1988 the PQ decided it liked free trade and totally supported Mulroney (as did the Quebec Liberals).

In 2015, there is no question that Mulcair's position on Quebec's place in Canada will be cut from the same cloth as the Couillard Quebec Liberal position - it will be far, far more palatable to sovereignists that Trudeau's old style federalism...particularly since Trudeau seems to want to attack the NDP for being in favour of self-determination for Quebec.  I think in 2015 both the PLQ AND the PQ will be much more comfortable with Mulcair than with Justin Trudeau. Couillard and Mulcair are old friends so its a natural fit. The PQ will view Mulcair as the lesser of two evils compared to Trudeau.

[RogueBeaver]

It depends on the issue. Obviously all provincial parties support 50+1, nothing new there. On the Senate, Couillard won't agree to another constitutional round unless Quebec's issues are dealt with first. Not that I think we're reopening that can of worms anytime soon.

[DL]

Yes and Couillard and Mulcair have both said they would like to work towards the goal of getting Quebec to sign the constitution. Justin Trudeau on the other hand says that any constitutional talks or attempts to reform or abolish the senate should be abandoned because its "too difficult" (sounds like a Barbie doll saying "math class is tough")

[RogueBeaver]

At any rate, I doubt Trudeau's current popularity here in Quebec, especially tying Mulcair with Francos, has much to do with his constitutional position.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes and Couillard and Mulcair have both said they would like to work towards the goal of getting Quebec to sign the constitution. Justin Trudeau on the other hand says that any constitutional talks or attempts to reform or abolish the senate should be abandoned because its "too difficult" (sounds like a Barbie doll saying "math class is tough")

Another way that Justin is not like his father. Pierre was a visionary, JT is just... well, a Ken doll.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yes and Couillard and Mulcair have both said they would like to work towards the goal of getting Quebec to sign the constitution. Justin Trudeau on the other hand says that any constitutional talks or attempts to reform or abolish the senate should be abandoned because its "too difficult" (sounds like a Barbie doll saying "math class is tough")

Your Liberal Party sounds just like ours!

[Space7]

The next election looks like it will be mostly decided by the ABCers (Anything But Conservative).

Will they rally behind the NDP or the Liberals? (NDP or Liberal minority)
Will they be divided, and split the vote? (Conservative minority or majority)

Oh, also, there's a way to divide Canada up.

Eastern Canada = Slightly less than a third.
Ontario = Slightly more than a third.
Western Canada = Slightly less than a third.

We can expect the Marintines to go mostly Liberal unless Trudeau really, really messes up. (They're polling above 50% right now) Marintines is a little less than 1/3 of Eastern Canada.

Quebec could go any which way, except Conservative. (over 2/3 of Eastern Canada)

Toronto and the 905 are another area where it could swing. (slightly less than 1/2 of Ontario)

The rest of Ontario is almost entirely Conservative, except for a couple cities and the North. (slightly more than 1/2 of Ontario)

Manitoba and Saskatchewan make up about a quarter of Western Canada. We can expect a ton of Conservative support except for Winnipeg (and now maybe Regina and Saskatoon). Those cities make up about a third of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Alberta will have more ridings next election, practically all will go Conservative (Alberta makes up about a third of Western Canada)

BC is mostly packed into Greater Vancouver, but Vancouver has quite a bit of rural and/or wealthy land, and so is more right wing than most Canadian cities, still, Vancouver has many important swing ridings. Interior BC is somewhat strong Conservative territory (That is, unless Enbridge is pushed through). Vancouver Island is NDP-favourable, but new riding distribution may allow the Conservatives to keep support here. BC makes up more than 1/3 of Western Canada.

The Territories only make up a tiny amount of Canada's ridings (obviously), but they look like they could be swing ridings.

[adma]

I think that if we're dealing with a Conservative party dancing around 30% or even below, there'll be more seats at play in, say, non-GTA Ontario or urban Alberta than you're counting on...

[Space7]

I think that if we're dealing with a Conservative party dancing around 30% or even below, there'll be more seats at play in, say, non-GTA Ontario or urban Alberta than you're counting on...

I'm not counting on it! It's very, very preliminary, but you're right, the Conservative areas would start breaking down very quickly below 30%.

I just sorta doubt they'll end up that way. The scandals that have happened as of late will be almost irrelevant 2 years from now, they have the advantage of incumbency. They would need a semi-large handful of scandals and a fairly large drop in the economy to be pushed beneath 30 percent I think... not impossible, a lot can happen in two years, but unlikely IMHO.

Edit: Oh, and the Conservatives are below 30% right now (28%), but I would expect that's because of a combination of Trudeau's temporary boost and the very recent scandals.

Maybe I'm paranoid because of the recent upset in the BC election

[DL]

Keep in mind that as recently as the 2004 federal election, the CPC took just 29% of the vote nationwide.

[DC Al Fine]

Keep in mind that as recently as the 2004 federal election, the CPC took just 29% of the vote nationwide.

That was also an exceptional circumstance. The two conservative parties had merged quite recently. 35-40% is normal in the post Mulroney era for conservatives.

[Space7]

I wonder if the Conservatives will end up pushing through Enbridge. Even though Enbridge has been bombarding BC with advertisements for ages now, assuring "State of the art" oil spill management and that safety is their top priority, I don't think British Columbians are buying it, most have by now heard about Enbridge promising this stuff before in other places, and the states later ending up with numerous oil spills.

I'm not sure if the CPC recognizes that giving it the stamp of approval will result in a massive drop in support in BC. I'm pretty sure the BC Liberals have noticed this, they are roughly parallel to the federal Conservatives in terms of ideology, but they seem slightly wary of giving Enbridge free pass in BC, I think they recognize that their voters would not be pleased if BC suddenly ends up with an out-of-control oil spill.

Ultimately, the Federal government and not the provincial one makes the final decision, but I hope they realize they might have to be prepared to lose 15 or so ridings.

And if they do decide to sell BC's coast to China I hope BCers will stand up against it, or at least change all the blue ridings orange next election.

It would be nice to see the CPC lose one of their stronger provinces.

[RogueBeaver]

Conflicting signals from Cabinet right now. My bet is that Harper either tries negotiating with Clark (one signal might be by replacing Oliver with Moore) or quietly drops it.